Yeah, I'm surprised that they're valuing the film and TV production and library so low. Since Disney probably doesn't have much interest in the production hard-assets, the things that they do have interest in (library and rights) should be relatively affordable. And I assume things like Simpsons, Futurama, X-Files etc. are part of that 'library'. If so, it seems like Disney could get a lot of content and rights for a relatively small investment... if Fox is willing to sell them those parts a la carte.
The tricky part about it is that properties only hold so much value for so long, and as long as they are in the right hands. (Exhibit A: Fantastic Four.) Disney figured this out a long time ago with its own classic library, and why they only release certain films in a limited run. It's an artificial control of supply and demand, but it has a lasting effect.
If I had to put my finger on the specific valuation, it is probably due to the volatile nature of Entertainment. Properties are only as important as their consistent drawing power. Overall, any film (or TV) property's net worth is going to be depreciable to some extent. The lower valuation might also say something to the fact that the properties are probably
undervalued in Fox's hands. Hence the volatility. We'll call that the Fantastic Four effect. Take how valued the Alien and Predator properties were in the late 80's vs. today.
The Star Wars home distribution rights are another example. Another studio could in theory buy those, but that contract expires in a little more than 2 years for the majority of the films. Which leaves very little time for a worth while ROI. So the net worth is only going to be positive to certain parties. The fact that a portion of licensing also gets paid to Disney also undermines its worth to anyone other than Disney. Buying Marvel & LucasFilm at the times that Iger did was a very, very strategic long term play. Disney may be falling into a situation that ends up being crucially strategic merely by chance.
The most interesting part to me is that no NDA has been signed and no books have been briefed
I think one word may sum up the whole situation.
Stalemate.
IF the situation actually is what many may suspect it is with respect to the Marvel film rights (and that is probably the crux of the negotiations), then Disney is the one in the driver's seat. In respect to any deal between Disney & Fox, financials and NDA's wouldn't exactly be necessary as Disney wouldn't be buying the studio operations or the whole company. Just certain properties and rights. Many of which Disney is probably already privy to.
If you are right and the movie rights are not transferable on a sale (which I doubt), then Disney has a major advantage here and really only needs to purchase Avatar and SW from a content perspective
It's certainly possible. It could explain why Disney doesn't appear to be a rush to get a deal done when Fox certainly appears to be willing to do one. Assuming that Disney is in the position that I suspect they may be in, they don't even need to rush in on for parts like Avatar. Fox would have to satisfy Disney in certain regards otherwise they'd be running the risk of losing a considerable amount of valuation in regards to a deal.
Likewise, with this guy today suggesting that Disney
could look at TWX if that deal falls through (which is a much better and stronger play for Disney), they would really only need DC, HB, and HP from a content perspective. Everything else would be nice to have.
While it would be interesting for them to get DC, I just don't see that passing the muster of regulatory review. Though right now, unless at&t makes some sort of agreement to satisfy the DOJ or beats them in court, the possibility of their deal with Time Warner falling apart is very real. If that happens, expect to see Comcast make a play for certain parts of Time Warner.
So if the F4 rights are nontransferable, that explains why Disney is slow to buy the rights. They are probably just trying to wait it out. Does that include X-men as well?
My understanding from the bits and pieces I've picked up is that yes, that does include the X-Men. It is a typical licensing clause. Fox would have had no reason to not agree to it, even with Marvel in the shape that they were. Which is why it is such a big deal. If that one clause exists then Fox stands to lose
a lot of money if they can't come to an agreement with Disney and they sell their studio to someone else.
This whole ordeal basically rests on whether or not the Marvel properties are transferable. My interpretation merely rests on how Disney is reacting to the situation. Considering the amount of potential that exists (along with resolution to many outstanding issues with Marvel and LucasFilm properties), it makes no sense whatsoever for Disney NOT to be aggressive in getting a deal done. This is a company that really doesn't screw around. That they seem to be in no rush to get this done just doesn't add up. Marvel for example has paid for itself nearly 3x over already. That they wouldn't pursue that part alone and make more money is again something that just doesn't add up.
What would be the ultimate form of irony though, if this truly ends up hinging on the Marvel contracts. Fox bought the film rights to X-Men for a pittance. They knew Marvel was desperate and preyed on them. I can't fault them for doing that though as business can be cutthroat after all. If the sale of Fox's entertainment empire hinged on that contract and on that one transferable clause. That Fox would in the end be boxed in by its own hubris. Oh my the irony
