The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - Part 13

[Dark Raven]

I wonder if Disney will buy Peanuts and Charlie Brown and Snoopy.

 

[Big Bang]

I wonder if Disney will buy Peanuts and Charlie Brown and Snoopy.

IIRC, Fox doesn't own those rights, DHX Media does. Fox only licensed them for a feature film.

Which does raise a very good question. DHX Media isn't a very large company and they do own some brands that would do well in the Disney sphere, like Strawberry Shortcake. In fact, they started exploring a sale of their company back in October...

and Disney has worked with them in the past.

 

[Kanon]

So, Sony is after Fox as well. Could be good news, the FF wouldn't be back, but Sony plays ball, surely an spidey like agreement would be the first option.

 

[Big Bang]

So, Sony is after Fox as well. Could be good news, the FF wouldn't be back, but Sony plays ball, surely an spidey like agreement would be the first option.

Maybe, but also consider how Sony is trying to do its own Spidey Verse separate from the MCU.

They want to have it separate from Marvel/Disney. They are simply forced to have him in the MCU right now because they were in serious danger of being faced with diminishing returns. Literally their entire film division is dependent on revenues from Spider-Man right now because they simply cannot make a hit from other films to save their life right now. They are also in the process of losing the James Bond films, so they really don't have anything left.


Sony is probably after Fox for some of the Marvel rights, or maybe other IP's, but they do not have the capital or stock value to take on major parts of Fox. Not against the competition of Disney, Comcast/Universal, and Verizon. It's not even close in those categories.

If Sony got the X-Men & Fantastic Four rights, they'd probably separate Spider-Man from the MCU proper to try do their own. You have to bear in mind the people running the show over there.

Especially Amy Pascal and Tom Rothman.

 

[Kanon]

Maybe, but also consider how Sony is trying to do its own Spidey Verse separate from the MCU.

They want to have it separate from Marvel/Disney. They are simply forced to have him in the MCU right now because they were in serious danger of being faced with diminishing returns. Literally their entire film division is dependent on revenues from Spider-Man right now because they simply cannot make a hit from other films to save their life right now. They are also in the process of losing the James Bond films, so they really don't have anything left.


Sony is probably after Fox for some of the Marvel rights, or maybe other IP's, but they do not have the capital or stock value to take on major parts of Fox. Not against the competition of Disney, Comcast/Universal, and Verizon. It's not even close in those categories.

If Sony got the X-Men & Fantastic Four rights, they'd probably separate Spider-Man from the MCU proper to try do their own. You have to bear in mind the people running the show over there.

Especially Amy Pascal and Tom Rothman.

Yeah, I know, but I think as soon as they try to get out of the MCU they will face a bomb (Venom?), and realize they need Marvel holding their hands.

 

[Big Bang]

Yeah, I know, but I think as soon as they try to get out of the MCU they will face a bomb (Venom?), and realize they need Marvel holding their hands.

That is what leads me to think they won't. If they have any sense whatsoever, they'll realize they cannot do it without Marvel and not even try to acquire those rights. Just let Disney buy them, don't even bother getting in between.


Sony as a whole is recovering slowly from their dramatic fall, but they are on life support via the PlayStation 4 and Marvel Studios. To be dependent on a competitor is not a good long term strategy for them.

 

[Orba]

They also probably realise that if they tried to get into a war with Disney over those Marvel rights Disney are likely to play hardball. But I do agree that they would be interested in trying to get their hands on some of the other IPs that Fox own, these days Sony have no reliable tentpole franchises outside of Spider-man. IPs like Alien and Predator might be ones that they would like to pick up.

 

[DyfeddRex]

Maybe, but also consider how Sony is trying to do its own Spidey Verse separate from the MCU.

They want to have it separate from Marvel/Disney. They are simply forced to have him in the MCU right now because they were in serious danger of being faced with diminishing returns. Literally their entire film division is dependent on revenues from Spider-Man right now because they simply cannot make a hit from other films to save their life right now. They are also in the process of losing the James Bond films, so they really don't have anything left.


Sony is probably after Fox for some of the Marvel rights, or maybe other IP's, but they do not have the capital or stock value to take on major parts of Fox. Not against the competition of Disney, Comcast/Universal, and Verizon. It's not even close in those categories.

If Sony got the X-Men & Fantastic Four rights, they'd probably separate Spider-Man from the MCU proper to try do their own. You have to bear in mind the people running the show over there.

Especially Amy Pascal and Tom Rothman.

We might be looking at this wrong. What if the Sony bid is for the Marvel rights, to force Mouse to buy them out, after backing that bid, just to get the rights of all things home?

 

[Big Bang]

We might be looking at this wrong. What if the Sony bid is for the Marvel rights, to force Mouse to buy them out, after backing that bid, just to get the rights of all things home?

Honestly, if Sony is after anything, it is the Bond home video distribution rights. Right now Fox has those.

Sony isn't quite out of the race for more Bond just yet. Having the home video distribution rights would solidify their bargaining position.

 

[ADollarADay]

With as many suitors that Fox purportedly has now, that number is going to go up.

Fox may even try to gouge Disney for their character rights, simply because they can now. Getting down to that, Disney will probably seek to buy the X-Men & Fantastic Four rights, along with Fox's share of Avatar. Other assets are a bit more of a toss up now given the parties involved.

I most certainly expect Comcast to come out of this with something. Other than Disney they are the biggest party with enough resources, and a strong enough need in different sectors, that needs more IP's. BlueSky (Fox's animation studio) for example I see going to Universal.

I thought about this longer and I think a Disney led consortium is the best option for them, especially with Comcast and Sony showing interest. They won't get everything that they wanted as per the leak, but they will come out winning.

The rise of Netflix has been one of the best things to happen to the MCU...it's looking like the rights for FF and X Teams will return to Marvel just in time for Phase 4...

If I was Disney, I would realize that Fox and their franchises could bring at least 10 billion dollars of profit from box office alone. Double that for merchandise and home video etc...

Conclusion: Disney can afford to pay $30 billion for Fox if need be. They must if they want to have full control instead of getting in a bidding war and possibly lose out on Avatar, X Men, Fantastic Four, Simpsons etc

Depends on the time for those profits. In simple terms, this is how investors look at it. Let's say Disney has two options:

Option 1: Buy the rights aforementioned rights for 20-30B and make 20B in net profit from those rights in X years
Option 2: Invest the capital in bonds and get an ROI of 5% compounded annually that will yield a certain return in X years

If X = 10, then option 1 is preferable as option 2 would net ~12.5B in profit.
If X >= 15, then option 2 is preferable as it would yield 21.5B in profit and only go up from there.

Honestly, if Sony is after anything, it is the Bond home video distribution rights. Right now Fox has those.

Sony isn't quite out of the race for more Bond just yet. Having the home video distribution rights would solidify their bargaining position.

AFAIK, Annapurna got the domestic distribution rights for the next Bond. Sony is still in the hunt for the international rights.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Regarding all the interest from other studios, I'm not sure how serious any of that interest is.

Here's what I imagine happening behind the scenes (and this is pure speculation on my part, so take it with a big grain of salt):

Disney and Fox had been talking for a while, but couldn't agree on a price.

Fox was frustrated with Disney's lack of action so they leaked the story to try to get things moving again.

In addition, Fox picked up the phone and called everybody they could think of who might have an interest. Of the people they called, Comcast and Sony agreed to meet to discuss in more detail.

Fox let the media know they would be meeting (because the more interest there appears to be, the better for Fox) and the fact that they will be meeting is now being reported as Comcast and Sony being suitors... even though they may have zero intention of paying what Disney has already offered. We can make a lot of arguments regarding why various entities would be interested, but at some point price becomes a factor. At $10 billion, there will be a LOT of interested parties. At $20 billion, that interest drops off dramatically.

So there could be real interest... or it could be very minimal interest made to sound more serious than it is.

In any case, I think Fox is past the point of no return. They HAVE to sell now, and if Disney is the only serious buyer, they can hold out for the price they want.

 

[Kanon]

Regarding all the interest from other studios, I'm not sure how serious any of that interest is.

Here's what I imagine happening behind the scenes (and this is pure speculation on my part, so take it with a big grain of salt):

Disney and Fox had been talking for a while, but couldn't agree on a price.

Fox was frustrated with Disney's lack of action so they leaked the story to try to get things moving again.

In addition, Fox picked up the phone and called everybody they could think of who might have an interest. Of the people they called, Comcast and Sony agreed to meet to discuss in more detail.

Fox let the media know they would be meeting (because the more interest there appears to be, the better for Fox) and the fact that they will be meeting is now being reported as Comcast and Sony being suitors... even though they may have zero intention of paying what Disney has already offered. We can make a lot of arguments regarding why various entities would be interested, but at some point price becomes a factor. At $10 billion, there will be a LOT of interested parties. At $20 billion, that interest drops off dramatically.

So there could be real interest... or it could be very minimal interest made to sound more serious than it is.

In any case, I think Fox is past the point of no return. They HAVE to sell now, and if Disney is the only serious buyer, they can hold out for the price they want.

I think that's very likely. At the least, we know Dosney wants some of those assets BAD (the Marvel IPs, and Star Wars distribution), and won't let anyone else buy them, no matter what. I don't think Disney will get anyone else get those no matter the price, and this is probably the chance the have been waiting for.

 

[Big Bang]

Regarding all the interest from other studios, I'm not sure how serious any of that interest is.

Here's what I imagine happening behind the scenes (and this is pure speculation on my part, so take it with a big grain of salt):

Disney and Fox had been talking for a while, but couldn't agree on a price.

Fox was frustrated with Disney's lack of action so they leaked the story to try to get things moving again.

In addition, Fox picked up the phone and called everybody they could think of who might have an interest. Of the people they called, Comcast and Sony agreed to meet to discuss in more detail.

Fox let the media know they would be meeting (because the more interest there appears to be, the better for Fox) and the fact that they will be meeting is now being reported as Comcast and Sony being suitors... even though they may have zero intention of paying what Disney has already offered. We can make a lot of arguments regarding why various entities would be interested, but at some point price becomes a factor. At $10 billion, there will be a LOT of interested parties. At $20 billion, that interest drops off dramatically.

So there could be real interest... or it could be very minimal interest made to sound more serious than it is.

In any case, I think Fox is past the point of no return. They HAVE to sell now, and if Disney is the only serious buyer, they can hold out for the price they want.

There seems to be some variance. There is no way Sony can pull out a purchase without significant 3rd party backing. I can see them going for certain rights though.

Comcast is going to be the most aggressive outside of Disney.

Otherwise, this is all about Fox putting pressure on Disney. They knew they could play this game. It is a well played move on their part.

 

[Boom]

With the imminent implosion of the DCEU, I'm gonna have to hang my hat on the prospect of Disney/Marvel getting the Four back in-house.

 

[Iceman]

So, Sony is after Fox as well. Could be good news, the FF wouldn't be back, but Sony plays ball, surely an spidey like agreement would be the first option.

We need Amy Pascal’s input on F4, sure.

 

[WereCoyote]

With the imminent implosion of the DCEU, I'm gonna have to hang my hat on the prospect of Disney/Marvel getting the Four back in-house.

Justice League didn't do it for you huh? I haven't seen it yet, so I can't speak to this.

 

[Iceman]

I think that's very likely. At the least, we know Dosney wants some of those assets BAD (the Marvel IPs, and Star Wars distribution), and won't let anyone else buy them, no matter what. I don't think Disney will get anyone else get those no matter the price, and this is probably the chance the have been waiting for.

I think it’ll happen as those rights aren’t worth the same to anyone else outside Disney who know they can make them work and can strongly leverage them in other areas.

 

[Darth_Spock]

They also probably realise that if they tried to get into a war with Disney over those Marvel rights Disney are likely to play hardball. But I do agree that they would be interested in trying to get their hands on some of the other IPs that Fox own, these days Sony have no reliable tentpole franchises outside of Spider-man. IPs like Alien and Predator might be ones that they would like to pick up.

Which is sad if Sony feels this way since they've been sitting on He-Man's property for decades which could be as great as LOTR's franchise has been and Barbie could be par with Frozen if both are done right.

Instead they sit around like vultures (no relation to HC) and Hyena's waiting to pounce on the success of other studio franchises.

But then again last year's Ghost Buster's reboot is a reminder of what Sony can do independently. So there's no real shock.

 

[ADollarADay]

Which is sad if Sony feels this way since they've been sitting on He-Man's property for decades which could be as great as LOTR's franchise has been and Barbie could be par with Frozen if both are done right.

Instead the sit around like vultures (no relation to HC) and Hyena's waiting to pounce on the success of the studios franchises.

But then again last year's Ghost Buster's reboot is a reminder of all that Sony can do independently.

You make it sound so easy!

There's a Masters of the Universe coming out in 2019 by the way. It is going up against Episode IX because that's how SPE rolls.

 

[Darth_Spock]

You make it sound so easy!

There's a Masters of the Universe coming out in 2019 by the way. It is going up against Episode IX because that's how SPE rolls.

And you sound offended, why? Do you partially own Sony shares?

No one said this would be easy. In fact it's because these Studios half*ss when trying to copy Marvel Studio's Cinematic Universe that they're all struggling in the first place. Marvel Studios have worked their butts off to give majority of Marvel fans what they want and they been handsomely rewarded as a result. Not always perfect but I enjoyed The Punisher last weekend and Ragnarok a couple weeks ago.

And btw SPE were also entertaining the idea of a He-Man/Barbie live action crossover at one point, so trying to lecture how Sony "rolls" only ends with people rolling with laughter!

 

[Big Bang]

No one said this would be easy. In fact it's because these Studios half*ss when trying to copy Marvel Studio's Cinematic Universe that they're all struggling in the first place. Marvel Studios have worked their butts off to give majority of Marvel fans what they want and they been handsomely rewarded as a result. Not always perfect but I enjoyed The Punisher last weekend and Ragnarok a couple weeks ago.

And btw SPE were also entertaining the idea of a He-Man/Barbie live action crossover at one point, so trying to lecture how Sony "rolls" only ends with people rolling with laughter!

What is actually kind of ironic, is that in the right hands (read: not Sony's) a He-Man/Barbie cross over could actually work. Granted it would have to be something in the realm of Robot Chicken, but still, the idea could work. Just not with Sony.

Sony's entire situation comes down to the people leading it. They have literally no vision whatsoever. That fact Amy Pascal is even still around there in any capacity boggles the mind. Their whole effort of trying to create a Cinematic Sony-verse from their properties is just comical at this point. Hell, I'm surprised they didn't try to cross over Ghostbusters with MiB. Because, you know, alien ghosts is a billion dollar idea apparently.

 

[ADollarADay]

And you sound offended, why? Do you partially own Sony shares?

No one said this would be easy. In fact it's because these Studios half*ss when trying to copy Marvel Studio's Cinematic Universe that they're all struggling in the first place. Marvel Studios have worked their butts off to give majority of Marvel fans what they want and they been handsomely rewarded as a result. Not always perfect but I enjoyed The Punisher last weekend and Ragnarok a couple weeks ago.

And btw SPE were also entertaining the idea of a He-Man/Barbie live action crossover at one point, so trying to lecture how Sony "rolls" only ends with people rolling with laughter!

I own a fair amount of SNE's ADRs, yes. However, I'm not offended, I don't know why you thought that.

Few trilogies have done the numbers that LOTR did and only minions has hit Frozen's numbers from an animation front, so suggesting that Barbie and He-Man could do those numbers if "they are done right" is preposterous. It is a clear failure to understand on why those franchises are as big as they are.

SPE has struggled for years, partly because of release schedule, so releasing an unproven new property two days before the end of a trilogy in the biggest franchise in movies today is laughable at best and suggesting otherwise just shows a lack of business knowledge.

What is actually kind of ironic, is that in the right hands (read: not Sony's) a He-Man/Barbie cross over could actually work. Granted it would have to be something in the realm of Robot Chicken, but still, the idea could work. Just not with Sony.

It can work, but I don't know about LOTR and Frozen numbers.

 

[Big Bang]

SPE has struggled for years, partly because of release schedule, so releasing an unproven new property two days before the end of a trilogy in the biggest franchise in movies today is laughable at best and suggesting otherwise just shows a lack of business knowledge.

SPE's # 1 problem is SPE. Their product is just awful right now. Never mind big time franchises. Even just regular movies or tent pole films. They keep missing on several fronts. Then on top of it are talking about doing bizarre things, just to try to replicate what Marvel has done. Heck a simpler example would be the Gendy Tartakovsky take on Popeye movie sneak peek which had very positive responses to it. The film had potential and looked like it would be very enjoyable. So what does Sony do? They cancel it and instead do The Emoji Movie, which is a rip off of Wreck it Ralph, among other properties.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4tNuM9XttM

Bad decisions after bad decisions followed by even worse ideas.

Sony deserves to fail. They sure as heck seem to be doing their best to achieve that.

 

[Darth_Spock]

I own a fair amount of SNE's ADRs, yes. However, I'm not offended, I don't know why you thought that.

Few trilogies have done the numbers that LOTR did and only minions has hit Frozen's numbers from an animation front, so suggesting that Barbie and He-Man could do those numbers if "they are done right" is preposterous. It is a clear failure to understand on why those franchises are as big as they are.

SPE has struggled for years, partly because of release schedule, so releasing an unproven new property two days before the end of a trilogy in the biggest franchise in movies today is laughable at best and suggesting otherwise just shows a lack of business knowledge.



It can work, but I don't know about LOTR and Frozen numbers.

The question now is why are you shooting down franchises at Sony with potential to reach those box office goals. The Barbie franchise is like 60 years old and He-man is the same age as Transformers. And who knew that Bayformers as crappy as those films are would make 3 back 2 back Billion dollar films at the box office?

My point for bringing this up was that Sony has franchises that can go places. Maybe not as high as LOTR or Frozen on its first try but have something to shoot for long term under the right staff.

.....Which would relieve Sony of doing to Spider-man's characters what Fox continues to think is cool with the Fantastic Four's.

 

[Big Bang]

My point for bringing this up was that Sony has franchises that can go places. Maybe not as high as LOTR or Frozen on its first try but have something to shoot for long term under the right staff.

Well...yes and no. Yes in that some of the properties can go somewhere, no in that they can't in their hands. Exhibit A. Ghostbusters. A classic, well loved property that never quite reached its full potential. This is a property that has a lot of life in it but for a variety of reason never quite moved forward. What does Sony do? They practically sh** on it, bringing in a director who never, ever should have been able to touch it. All to service an element of Amy Pascal's ego. Also how did so go about treating the fans who have loved and supported this property for decades? By degrading them.

Heck, even James Rolfe of Cinemassacre was called a bigot, a misogynist, and other uncalled for names, just for refusing to see or review it. He went through a thorough, very well reasoned, thought out rationale. None of which had to do with the actresses who started in the film.

Sony earned and deserved every last millimeter of that failure.

.....Which would relieve Sony of doing to Spider-man's characters what Fox continues to think is cool with the Fantastic Four's.

Quite the opposite, IMO. The moment Sony senses any form of independent success, they'll yank Spider-Man and do their own thing. The upper management of that company truly are that clueless and arrogant that they would that. They certainly have given no indication whatsoever that they wouldn't and have wised up to what they should be doing or where their future lies.

Go back and look at the interview that Kevin Feige and Amy Pascal gave together. Look at how uncomfortable Kevin looked when she started talking about Marvel+Sony coming together might not happen again. That woman hasn't learned a single lesson in her failures.