The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - Part 19

[2kt09]

Look at Star Wars and how they were pushing those out - and that actually relates directly because they recently announced they were putting the spin-offs on hold. Now they may have less revenue from Star Wars films, and looking at the golden goose of Marvel, they could put pressure on Marvel to step it up.

They had less revenue from Star Wars in general based off the headline that sales were on decline before TLJ. By assuming each & every spinoff would matter as the main saga films, thus overspending to such a degree led to the obvious results.

 

[Spider-Fan]

But consider (and this isn't a good thing, but a reality) Disney management and the dollar signs in their eyes. An extra Marvel film is potentially hundreds of millions of dollars more on the bottom line.

Look at Star Wars and how they were pushing those out - and that actually relates directly because they recently announced they were putting the spin-offs on hold. Now they may have less revenue from Star Wars films, and looking at the golden goose of Marvel, they could put pressure on Marvel to step it up.

Oh, and by the way, Disney is going to have some debts to pay off in the coming years.

Feige has never been one to rush a project, though. Except maybe IM2 early on. If anything was going to be rushed, it would be X-Men, the more proven money maker.

 

[MasterCat]

So Peyton Reed wants to stay at Marvel to write and direct the Fantastic 4.
James Gunn has pitched Moon Knight, with the caveat that he doesn't have enough time with the GotG trilogy.

 

[Iceman]

So Peyton Reed wants to stay at Marvel to write and direct the Fantastic 4.
James Gunn has pitched Moon Knight, with the caveat that he doesn't have enough time with the GotG trilogy.

Good that he wants to stay involved and good that F4 is being considered.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I'm a little nervous with Reed taking on a project the size of FF - though I guess he earned it after what he was able to do with Ant-Man (under difficult circumstances). It will be interesting to see how he follows up with Ant-Man and the Wasp. If that film is solid, he may be ready to tackle FF.

And if he's really excited and a fan, that's big. I think I'd take a director who is slightly weaker on paper but a fan who understands the characters over a great director who doesn't know the characters.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Scott Derrickson has also said:

"I still have hope that Fantastic Four can be properly brought into the MCU because a lot of Doctor Strange - that's the comment I read the most during that. I love those characters and I think that they still deserve another shot at finding a true home in the MCU. I still have hope for that. That's my honest answer."

And James Gunn has said:

"I probably wouldn't add Ben Grimm to the Guardians team even if they were a part of the MCU. And of course I would love the FF to be a part of the MCU...Fox owns so many great villains and cosmic characters I would love to play around with including Annihilus -- and I think they own Kang."

 

[Iceman]

I'm a little nervous with Reed taking on a project the size of FF - though I guess he earned it after what he was able to do with Ant-Man (under difficult circumstances). It will be interesting to see how he follows up with Ant-Man and the Wasp. If that film is solid, he may be ready to tackle FF.

And if he's really excited and a fan, that's big. I think I'd take a director who is slightly weaker on paper but a fan who understands the characters over a great director who doesn't know the characters.

I agree. I wouldn't want a weak director taking it on but as long as they're half decent then having a love for the material outweighs being a top director who is clueless about the material to me too.

 

[Iceman]

Scott Derrickson has also said:

"I still have hope that Fantastic Four can be properly brought into the MCU because a lot of Doctor Strange - that's the comment I read the most during that. I love those characters and I think that they still deserve another shot at finding a true home in the MCU. I still have hope for that. That's my honest answer."

And James Gunn has said:

"I probably wouldn't add Ben Grimm to the Guardians team even if they were a part of the MCU. And of course I would love the FF to be a part of the MCU...Fox owns so many great villains and cosmic characters I would love to play around with including Annihilus -- and I think they own Kang."

Good to hear comments like these that show the guys are still very much involved with and give a **** about the universe.

 

[MasterCat]

And if he's really excited and a fan, that's big. I think I'd take a director who is slightly weaker on paper but a fan who understands the characters over a great director who doesn't know the characters.

Yes, I think he'd do a perfectly workmanlike job. If his passion for the characters shows through (so Doom is done right if he's the first villain, which I suspect is inevitable in a 2005 script) and they choose actors right (no over-40 Reed with a Sue who's only a few years younger and not even blonde!) it'll be fine.

 

[Detective Conan]

Reed is clearly a big fan of the property but frankly I found him generally to be a mediocre director at best, and he only did a adequate job on the first Ant-Man film(which was partially salvaged by Adam McKay's script & of course Kevin Feige's guiding hand).

And just because Reed is a fan doesn't automatically make him the best candidate for an FF film. From what I've seen from his work on Ant-Man, I don't think he can do Jack Kirby's grand visuals justice since for me he has a very flat, televisual, style which doesn't make for much of a match for the distinctive visual identity the FF is known for.
Out of all the directors that Marvel currently has, I think James Gunn is the best director for the FF visuals -- look at the Guardians films --especially Vol.2( which for my money is still the best looking Marvel film). Of course, what matters most is the characters and storytelling but the visuals is a large part of FF's appeal. Should Reed take on the property then I would hope he would know that he needs to up the ante on the look of the film which means making it epic and grand as well as very distinct. Marvel got the Kirby flavor down pretty well with Ragnarok so hopefully the success of that flick would prompt them to steer the FF in that direction if/when they get them back.

 

[Big Bang]

But Comcast raises another issue. Let's say, hypothetically, Comcast buys Fox and wants to make Marvel films, but recognizes they will do better by partnering with Marvel.

Now we have a situation in which Comcast (to maintain the rights and also to maintain steady cash flow) might want to push Marvel to help them make a new FF film integrated with the MCU sooner rather than later.

That would require the existing contract be amended though. Given how hostile the two companies are, I don't see Disney lawyers giving Comcast any leverage.

They had less revenue from Star Wars in general based off the headline that sales were on decline before TLJ. By assuming each & every spinoff would matter as the main saga films, thus overspending to such a degree led to the obvious results.

TLJ has pushed it over the edge though. Across the board SW is in serious, serious trouble. SW films aren't supposed to lose money. The strength of the brand was one of the reasons Disney acquired LucasFilm in the first place.

 

[Zarex]

TLJ has pushed it over the edge though. Across the board SW is in serious, serious trouble. SW films aren't supposed to lose money. The strength of the brand was one of the reasons Disney acquired LucasFilm in the first place.

For all the talk of outrage over TLJ, it still did fantastic at the BO, and I doubt Solo's poor performance is due to disgruntled Star Wars fanatics getting their revenge. Solo had the Star Wars brand going for it. But it was poorly marketed, had very well publicized behind-the-scenes drama, featured a recast of an all time great pairing of actor and character, came too soon after TLJ, and was a prequel. Episode 9 should do huge business and then the future of Star Wars is in the hands of Rian Johnson, David Benioff and D.B. Weiss. I see the franchise bouncing back after the Solo misfire.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Let's leave Star Wars out of this thread, guys. We have a whole forum for Star Wars.

 

[MasterCat]

Let's leave Star Wars out of this thread, guys. We have a whole forum for Star Wars.

Can I at least say that I'd be happy to see Disney have to replace Star Wars with a new Guardians of the Galaxy trilogy because Ep9 came in under a billion?
All of Disney's PG-13 live-action films being in a shared universe would amuse me.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

That would require the existing contract be amended though. Given how hostile the two companies are, I don't see Disney lawyers giving Comcast any leverage.

Are they too irrational to talk to each other? Maybe, but they each have something the other wants:

Comcast has the rights to characters Marvel would like to use in their MCU (and if Disney doesn't deal, Comcast could play "keep away" for the next 30 years or more).

Marvel/Disney has the expertise and the ability to increase the value of those characters by integrating them into the MCU plus Disney has control of merchandising etc.

Since they both have something the other wants, it's possible to come to an agreement. If one side feels they have a better position than the other, that could shift the balance to one side or the other, but it shouldn't prevent a deal.

For example, here's a hypothetical deal: Marvel produces two films per year for Comcast featuring characters from X-Men, FF or some combination with those characters existing as part of the MCU. Comcast pays all the bills, and Marvel gets 10% of the gross (no matter how much the films make or lose). Marvel gets the rights to integrate any characters they want from the X-Men or FF into their own films with no limitations.

I think that might be a good starting point, but lets say Comcast likes the deal but Disney doesn't. Okay instead of 10% of the gross, Disney gets 15%.

Or conversely, lets say Disney likes the original deal but Comcast doesn't. Go the other way and instead of 10% of the gross, Disney only takes 5%.

So it's just a matter of sliding the numbers around until both sides are willing to sign that deal.

Of course if both sides are too stubborn to talk (as seemed to be the case with Fox), it still might never go anywhere, but I believe if both side act rationally, something could be worked out for mutual benefit.

 

[MasterCat]

Why are we talking about this? There hasn't been a peep out of Comcast about a higher bid, has there?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Why are we talking about this? There hasn't been a peep out of Comcast about a higher bid, has there?

Ignoring it doesn't make the threat go away.

I believe every day Comcast doesn't make an offer puts them in a weaker position, but I still don't think we've heard the last of them.

 

[Iceman]

Ignoring it doesn't make the threat go away.

I believe every day Comcast doesn't make an offer puts them in a weaker position, but I still don't believe we've heard the last of them.

Yeah, I'm definitely expecting at least one more big offer from Comcast. But the longer it takes to come the higher it will have to be as every day without is a chance for the Disney move to be further worked on.

 

[Detective Conan]

Why are we talking about this? There hasn't been a peep out of Comcast about a higher bid, has there?

I’m gonna admit this: I’m actually a tad bit nervous. Some people might take Comcast’s odd inactivity after Disney’s new bid as a sign that they’re toast or they’re waving the white flag but something about all this feels kind of ominous. Like the calm before the storm.

Something tells me Roberts’s next bid will be astronomically high. While there’s no way they’re going to bid go over 200 billion, something tells me Comcast’s bid will be a little higher than many are forecasting it to be. While I do expect the Mouse to win this, I would not be surprised if Comcast’s surprises all of us(including Disney) with their next bid.

I think the next time Comcast bids it will likely be their final offer and they’re going to go all in. A storm is coming, a mighty storm. but will Disney be able to weather it or will it be too much even for them?

 

[Bach]

My guess is that their bid will be around 100 billion or higher.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I’m gonna admit this: I’d actually a tad bit nervous. Some people might take Comcast’s odd inactivity after Disney’s new bid as a sign that they’re toast or they’re waving the white flag but something about all this feels kind of ominous. Like the calm before the storm.

Something tells me Roberts’s next bid will be astronomically high. While there’s no way they’re going to bid go over 200 billion, something tells me Comcast’s bid will be a little higher than many are forecasting it to be. While I do expect the Mouse to win this, I would not be surprised if Comcast’s surprises all of us(including Disney) with their next bid.

I suspect that after their first bid, they were ready and able to go to $41 per share. But after Disney's unexpectedly high bid, they realized $41 wouldn't be enough, so they're probably regrouping, raising more cash, and debating if they should continue or just stop.

Disney doesn't appear to be slowing down, so Comcast better be ready to pay. And the more they pay for Fox, the less they have left to bid on Sky.

 

[TheVileOne]

Are they too irrational to talk to each other? Maybe, but they each have something the other wants:

Comcast has the rights to characters Marvel would like to use in their MCU (and if Disney doesn't deal, Comcast could play "keep away" for the next 30 years or more).

Marvel/Disney has the expertise and the ability to increase the value of those characters by integrating them into the MCU plus Disney has control of merchandising etc.

Since they both have something the other wants, it's possible to come to an agreement. If one side feels they have a better position than the other, that could shift the balance to one side or the other, but it shouldn't prevent a deal.

For example, here's a hypothetical deal: Marvel produces two films per year for Comcast featuring characters from X-Men, FF or some combination with those characters existing as part of the MCU. Comcast pays all the bills, and Marvel gets 10% of the gross (no matter how much the films make or lose). Marvel gets the rights to integrate any characters they want from the X-Men or FF into their own films with no limitations.

I think that might be a good starting point, but lets say Comcast likes the deal but Disney doesn't. Okay instead of 10% of the gross, Disney gets 15%.

Or conversely, lets say Disney likes the original deal but Comcast doesn't. Go the other way and instead of 10% of the gross, Disney only takes 5%.

So it's just a matter of sliding the numbers around until both sides are willing to sign that deal.

Of course if both sides are too stubborn to talk (as seemed to be the case with Fox), it still might never go anywhere, but I believe if both side act rationally, something could be worked out for mutual benefit.

Comcast would never agree to such a deal.

 

[Big Bang]

For all the talk of outrage over TLJ, it still did fantastic at the BO, and I doubt Solo's poor performance is due to disgruntled Star Wars fanatics getting their revenge.

Chart the numbers, and you will see they are pointing downhill. The issues plaguing the franchise are not only with the box office. Piles of rotting merch in stores is a warning sign by itself. t's a very worrying statistic that could even spread to Marvel should that property ever be mismanaged in the same way.

Are they too irrational to talk to each other? Maybe, but they each have something the other wants

If the present is anything to consider, then it is possible there is not enough level headiness to get a deal done. Universal can't get agreement on its own end where the Hulk is concerned today. Complicating the situation further with additional properties doesn't give a vote confidence.

I’m gonna admit this: I’m actually a tad bit nervous. Some people might take Comcast’s odd inactivity after Disney’s new bid as a sign that they’re toast or they’re waving the white flag but something about all this feels kind of ominous. Like the calm before the storm.

Which is completely rational. Expect the worst, but hope for the best. Honestly though, the market is really getting behind Disney with its deal. Between the deal structure and Disney's purported advancement in regulatory approval, that alone is a tall order for Comcast to overcome. The latter alone deflates part of its argument. It really puts a cloud of uncertainty over any deal Comcast offers when Disney can get the deal done in a much shorter period of time.

 

[ADollarADay]

My guess is that their bid will be around 100 billion or higher.

100B (~$54/share) + Fox debt + Disney break up fee + Sky 31B (which would HAVE to be higher due to aforementioned Fox bid) = ~150B in additional debt on top of the current 66B debt.

Not only Disney immediately walk away as they have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders, but also Comcast shareholders would have to consider some type of legal action against the board being extremely careless. Especially since shareholders would not vote on this.

 

[Detective Conan]

Even if Disney walks away I do not envy anyone with that debt load. I’d almost feel bad for Roberts — he’d have won Fox but at such a crippling price.

I gotta say even if Comcast wins the battle for Fox they kind of lose anyway. They’d still have to end up paying Disney billions of dollars and this after they already offered over a billion dollars. Me thinks Roberts may want to give up those Marvel rights(unlikely but wishful thinking) as part of his payment sum to Disney’s break-up fee. After all, Roberts only really cares about stuff like Star India. So I’d say he’d be fine with letting the Marvel rights go if it can help mitigate his debt load.