The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - Part 19

[Flint Marko]

I'm worried about getting my hopes up too high.... but holy **** guys, we might actually have the X-men and the Fantastic Four in the MCU within the next few years. I genuinely can't even put into words how excited this makes me.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

71 Billion dollars and Disney cash was all it took to make Sentinels in the MCU.

I can't wait lol.

 

[Big Bang]

Well, let them fight then but i have the feeling that Comcast doesn't have much gas left.

Yep. The tide is against them. To get a prize the size of Fox they'd have to take on massive debt. It is certainly starting to look like they are going to lose this one. The question will then shift to what their next move will be.

 

[Dark Raven]

Yes. He’s still ******** about failing to buy Disney & Time Warner.

What does someone do if they can't win but they refuse to lose? Is there any way Roberts can keep going until he gets the answer he wants to hear and actually secures victory? Can he do this even if Fox have already accepted Disney's offer and the whole deal is about to complete?

What does a desperate man with nothing to lose do?

 

[Big Bang]

Feeling real good now.

 

[wobbly]

Well props to Iger. Called and raised.

Let's hope it's enough.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I didn't get too upset when Comcast bid (because we were expecting it) and I'm not getting too excited now (because we were also expecting this).

Fox's reaction to the bid is interesting, but if Comcast goes to $75 billion or more (which is quite likely), the board will have to at least consider that new offer.

This isn't over I'm afraid.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Yes. He’s still ******** about failing to buy Disney & Time Warner.

Then clearly he’s not fit to be spearheading a move like this

Guy has clouded judgement

 

[Dark Raven]

I didn't get too upset when Comcast bid (because we were expecting it) and I'm not getting too excited now (because we were also expecting this).

Fox's reaction to the bid is interesting, but if Comcast goes to $75 billion or more (which is quite likely), the board will have to at least consider that new offer.

This isn't over I'm afraid.

Yeah, I'm not that excited right now either. This was to be expected that Disney would up their bid.

Now Comcast, up yours.

 

[Dasher10]

I feel like Disney are likely to win. I think that they'll just transfer Sky to Comcast to get them to back off and take everything else for themselves.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Yeah, I'm not that excited right now either. This was to be expected that Disney would up their bid.

Now Comcast, up yours.

If this goes on for the next 4 months, I don't think anyone will be able to top that line.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

Question to the Hank McCoys in here:

Say this Disney-Fox deal is approved on both ends, so we still have to worry about the courts and Iger pissing Trump off after that Roseanne bs? Like could the government still shoot it down?

 

[Big Bang]

I didn't get too upset when Comcast bid (because we were expecting it) and I'm not getting too excited now (because we were also expecting this).

Fox's reaction to the bid is interesting, but if Comcast goes to $75 billion or more (which is quite likely), the board will have to at least consider that new offer.

This isn't over I'm afraid.

I think the deal structure gives Disney quite a bit of wiggle room though. The $35B cash + existing stock offer combination gives shareholders a choice of which they would prefer. So they've covered both bases. Comcast can raise its offer, but the capital gains taxes will only bite the largest shareholders even more. The board can review any further offers, but I think this deal structure is something they really can't overcome.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Question to the Hank McCoys in here:

Say this Disney-Fox deal is approved on both ends, so we still have to worry about the courts and Iger pissing Trump off after that Roseanne bs? Like could the government still shoot it down?

Yes, but the key to the AT&T deal (not just the ruling but the judges comments) is that legal issues should be nearly non-existent.

 

[Zarex]

Question to the Hank McCoys in here:

Say this Disney-Fox deal is approved on both ends, so we still have to worry about the courts and Iger pissing Trump off after that Roseanne bs? Like could the government still shoot it down?

His reliance on continued, unwavering and blind support from FOX News "Trumps" any bad feelings Cheeto currently holds for Bob Iger. If Murdoch approves the deal gets done.

 

[wobbly]

Question to the Hank McCoys in here:

Say this Disney-Fox deal is approved on both ends, so we still have to worry about the courts and Iger pissing Trump off after that Roseanne bs? Like could the government still shoot it down?

Highly unlikely the DOJ would interfere. They already complimented Disney on the 'surgical' precision of how they structured their deal to avoid potential regulatory stumbling blocks.

 

[Big Bang]

Question to the Hank McCoys in here:

Say this Disney-Fox deal is approved on both ends

initially approved. Filings are being amended and sent out to shareholders. Shareholders will still need to vote. Likelihood to be approved is high, IMO.

Like could the government still shoot it down?

Yes, it could. However the DOJ thus far has offered little in the way of concerns publicly. After losing to AT&T, they may not be so eager to challenge.

and Iger pissing Trump off after that Roseanne bs?

No. POTUS can not directly involve himself.

 

[ADollarADay]

I think this was the (Fox) board's way of saying they are going to stick with Disney. Comcast will likely take their offer (whether current or increased) straight to the shareholders next.

It has to be increased. This current DIS offer is superior to CMCSA's 65B. They would be laughed out of the room with that offer when DIS has a superior one on the table.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think the deal structure gives Disney quite a bit of wiggle room though. The $35B cash + existing stock offer combination gives shareholders a choice of which they would prefer. So they've covered both bases. Comcast can raise its offer, but the capital gains taxes will only bite the largest shareholders even more. The board can review any further offers, but I think this deal structure is something they really can't overcome.

Yeah, I think this is a key, key point and very clever on Disney's part. As we've been discussing, some people prefer cash and some (particularly people who bought at a low price) prefer stock. This offer should please everyone and be very strong even if Comcast increases their bid.

And Comcast can't simply counter by offering their own stock. Yes, they can do that, but for people wanting stock, I believe Disney stock (with these newly acquired assets) will be notably more attractive than Comcast stock (which is why Comcast went cash to start with).

 

[HunBoy]

Bob Iger: Disney Has ‘Much Better’ Chance of Closing Fox Deal Than Comcast

https://variety.com/2018/biz/news/bob-iger-disney-fox-comcast-acquistion-1202851921/

 

[Timebomb]

I'm worried about getting my hopes up too high.... but holy **** guys, we might actually have the X-men and the Fantastic Four in the MCU within the next few years. I genuinely can't even put into words how excited this makes me.

Feel the same way. Please please let this be the end of the bidding.

 

[Dark Raven]

Say for argument's sake that Fox decide to go with Comcast and then they face regulatory problems later on in getting approved. What do they do? Ditch the deal months down the line and go crawling back to Disney?

And would Disney still even go for it? And if they did, would they want it at the earlier price of $52 billion instead of the current one?

 

[wobbly]

I didn't get too upset when Comcast bid (because we were expecting it) and I'm not getting too excited now (because we were also expecting this).

Fox's reaction to the bid is interesting, but if Comcast goes to $75 billion or more (which is quite likely), the board will have to at least consider that new offer.

This isn't over I'm afraid.

Yeah, that's where I am too. I'm pleased Iger countered aggressively, and pleased Fox's statement is quite clear on it being a better option than Comcast's.

But I'm taking nothing for granted.

 

[Big Bang]

It has to be increased. This current DIS offer is superior to CMCSA's 65B. They would be laughed out of the room with that offer when DIS has a superior one on the table.

I think even if they did increase it, it's a redundant move on their part. Between the revised deal structure and possible DOJ issues (regardless of size), the odds just don't look in their favor.

 

[ADollarADay]

I think even if they did increase it, it's a redundant move on their part. Between the revised deal structure and possible DOJ issues (regardless of size), the odds just don't look in their favor.

I don't disagree but they would have to increase before going to shareholders. I also think DIS may be overpaying big time, but I will have to look into the details before saying that for sure.