The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - Part 20

[MasterCat]

If they go retro, it will be because that’s the story Feige wants to tell. And if Feige wants a contemporary story, he’ll get Reed ir someone else to direct it.

Right, someone else. It sounds like Reed was interested in the Fantastic 4 only as period characters and he lost the job to Tim Story because FOX liked the modern script. If Feige doesn't want to let Peyton Reed tell his story, Reed can stay on the Ant-Man threequel and/or line up other jobs.

Oh, and as far as release schedules, the situation is like this:
February/March, April, May, June, July, August, November, December
3 or 4 Marvel (Spider-Man in July of odd years), 2 Disney live-action (Winnie the Pooh & Mary Poppins Returns this year, Aladdin & Lion King 2019), 1 Pixar, 1 Disney animated, Avatar in Decembers starting in 2020, Star Wars...

 

[Detective Conan]

Hmmmm...


Well, you didn't know how great Pym was until Ant-man. And Pym mentions Stark but only because Stark was brought up and it was not even in a positive way. In that movie (or any movie) if Reed had no need to be brought up, he wouldn't be, like in real life. As far as why Reed's picture wasn't there in SM:H, they can say he was on the opposite wall (that you don't see) with other scientists or literally any other excuse. That's not really a problem.

For example, in real life Lincoln is a pretty famous president, It's safe to say everyone in the US (who I know anyway) knows who he is and if he is brought up, they can say something about him. Yet despite this, I have not read or heard anything about him from anyone in at least 3 weeks, same for Einstein, Prince or Britney Spears.

I'm sure SOMEONE out there mentioned these people to someone else, but in my life around those I work with and hang out with, they have not been mentioned once in that time. In the case of Lincoln, I am actually close to someone when they were were working on their Doctorate over a decade ago, they wrote a thesis on him and at the same time, nothing in the last 3 weeks (at least) from her.

Now with those facts, within the time of a 2 hour movie, do you really think we (as viewers to the MCU) will know all the scientists that Pym or anyone else knows if they are not specifically brought up for a reason?

Long story short, no mention from within a 2 hour movie doesn't really mean anything and should never be considered a continuity error of any sort.

Eh, fair enough. Not really a hill I care to die on but I still prefer the characters in modern day. Still think it'd be contrived and unnecessary. I'm more curious to see the Fantastic Four origin in the context of a post-Avengers 4 status quo.

 

[MasterCat]

Eh, fair enough. Not really a hill I care to die on but I still prefer the characters in modern day. Still think it'd be contrived and unnecessary. I'm more curious to see the Fantastic Four origin in the context of a post-Avengers 4 status quo.

Me too, and I don't care if it takes until 2024 to do them. So long as Doctor Doom shows up independently in Doctor Strange 3 or a Black Panther sequel.

 

[Tymminator]

I guess I’m good either way.

I kinda hope their first villain is someone like Annihilus. I very much do want to meet MCU Doom, but not hot out the box.

 

[MasterCat]

I very much do want to meet MCU Doom, but not hot out the box.

I strongly believe he can come hot out of the box without the F4. He could be the second protagonist of Doctor Strange 3 or kill Chadwick Boseman in Black Panther 3 so Shuri take over the role. He could even have a silent cameo before that so they don't have to cast an actor.

 

[Detective Conan]

Five Ways Comcast's Duel With Disney Over Fox Bid Could Play Out

Philadelphia-based Comcast needs to bid $47 a share for the Fox assets, according to BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield. Disney is currently offering $38 a share in cash and stock, a mix that is more tax friendly to the Murdochs and other longtime Fox investors.
An all-cash bid for Fox at $47 a share, coupled with a higher 15-a-pound per share offer for British broadcaster Sky Plc, would push Comcast’s leverage to five times earnings, according to Greenfield, though cost savings and growth would lower that to less than four by 2021.
Roberts would also have to show the Fox board that Comcast can win regulatory approval -- a hurdle Disney cleared last week. Comcast is confident it’s not too far behind in that process, though the U.S. Justice Department only formally began evaluating its offer last month.
In a broader sense, Comcast could win even if Burbank, California-based Disney matched the offer. That’s because the debt added to Disney’s balance sheet would make it tougher for the entertainment giant to compete for future sports programming, Greenfield said.

Big Bang, Willie, Zarex, or anybody else what's your take on the part I bolded here?

 

[Zarex]

I been thinking for a while that the "winner" in this negotiation could end up in a worse position than the "loser", who may be able to pick up assets on the cheap from their highly leveraged former opponent. And be well positioned to find a less pricey deal (Sony, Paramount, Lionsgate) down the road.

But I don't see Iger raising his bid, even if Roberts goes to $47/share. I think he will hold on his sure thing offer and take his $1.52B if Rupert can't push the vote through.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

A 60's Fantastic 4 wouldn't be my first pick for a movie, but it also couldn't hurt doing something different with it. Just needs the key components:

-Chemistry between the 4
-A lot of infighting and jokes but still that genuine love.
-Over the top fights in the streets with giant monsters/aliens.
-Just fun in general.

Like one big ass episode of Power Rangers but with the class and sophistication.

 

[Tymminator]

I strongly believe he can come hot out of the box without the F4. He could be the second protagonist of Doctor Strange 3 or kill Chadwick Boseman in Black Panther 3 so Shuri take over the role. He could even have a silent cameo before that so they don't have to cast an actor.

Oh, I agree he could be done great out the box, and the examples you gave I think are solid ideas. It's just for me personally, I don't want to see him hot out the box only to fight the F4 for the 1st time once AGAIN.

Now, I am sure even that could be done well, but again I myself would rather they build a F4 vs. Doom fight (and even have Doom show up in other places as you have laid out) than Have another F4 vs. Doom as a intro F4 film.

 

[MasterCat]

Now, I am sure even that could be done well, but again I myself would rather they build a F4 vs. Doom fight (and even have Doom show up in other places as you have laid out) than Have another F4 vs. Doom as a intro F4 film.

Yeah, agreed. They can do Skrulls or the Molecule Man (to set up Secret Wars) first. If Doom has already been in another film, his actor could just record a quick cut of seeing the plot on the news and scoffing "Richards."

 

[Tymminator]

Yeah, agreed. They can do Skrulls or the Molecule Man (to set up Secret Wars) first. If Doom has already been in another film, his actor could just record a quick cut of seeing the plot on the news and scoffing "Richards."

Yeah, they really do have some great foes in their history.

 

[Detective Conan]

I been thinking for a while that the "winner" in this negotiation could end up in a worse position than the "loser", who may be able to pick up assets on the cheap from their highly leveraged former opponent. And be well positioned to find a less pricey deal (Sony, Paramount, Lionsgate) down the road.

But I don't see Iger raising his bid, even if Roberts goes to $47/share. I think he will hold on his sure thing offer and take his $1.52B if Rupert can't push the vote through.

Hmm, this is quite possible. Iger probably wouldn't even feel need to bid higher and just bank on the fact that they've already knocked out one major regulatory obstacle(the DOJ) in a much shorter timespan than AT&T/Time Warner(which took two years & a trial to reach approval). If Comcast is unable to put up a compelling case for their chances of regulatory approval, then Iger could use the rather lengthy time it took for the AT&T/Time Warner to be approved as his 'case in point'.

That could be a rather strong argument that could convince Fox shareholders to stay with Disney despite the higher offer from Comcast.

At this point the only way I see Kabletown winning this bidding war is by doing a final 95-100 billion counter offer as well as submit evidence to Fox shareholders that assuages a lot of the Fox shareholders trepidation of a potential Comcast acquisition -- which would very definitively show Comcast's road to regulatory approval is no more risky than a Disney one.
Though who knows maybe Iger really is crazy enough to raise his bid. Yes, Iger is known as less tenacious than Roberts when it comes to business dealings and all but this is really special case that's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to expand globally. Yes, its easy to say Iger might throw in the towel if Comcast's offer was significantly higher, and I normally would agree if this was a normal, smaller, acquisition but Fox has assets that is so tantalizingly transformative for Disney that I just can't see Iger letting that go, even if it is in his best interest to in the long run. He gave up a presidential nomination for this so even though it may be for the best for the Mouse to 'lose' the bidding war me suspects that the Mouse would not satisfied by a billion dollar break-up fee (especially if Comcast were the one to pay it). Disney wants Star India way, way more than they want the Marvel rights. The Marvel rights are assets that are nice to have in order to further expand their biggest IP(the MCU) but they're merely the icing on the cake when compared to the holy grail that is Star India.

 

[MasterCat]

Star India really could be transformative for them.

 

[eddy]

Right, someone else. It sounds like Reed was interested in the Fantastic 4 only as period characters and he lost the job to Tim Story because FOX liked the modern script. If Feige doesn't want to let Peyton Reed tell his story, Reed can stay on the Ant-Man threequel and/or line up other jobs.

Oh, and as far as release schedules, the situation is like this:
February/March, April, May, June, July, August, November, December
3 or 4 Marvel (Spider-Man in July of odd years), 2 Disney live-action (Winnie the Pooh & Mary Poppins Returns this year, Aladdin & Lion King 2019), 1 Pixar, 1 Disney animated, Avatar in Decembers starting in 2020, Star Wars...

You forgot Dumbo next year in March a couple of weeks after Captain Marvel.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Five Ways Comcast's Duel With Disney Over Fox Bid Could Play Out




Big Bang, Willie, Zarex, or anybody else what's your take on the part I bolded here?

I think, at this moment, Disney wouldn’t be borrowing so much that they couldn’t function normally, but if this drags on and Disney ends up paying over $90 billion, that could require them to cut some corners in terms of future bidding on some things.

 

[Detective Conan]

God, I want this Comcast noise to be over already.

 

[Marvel united]

So once the shareholders vote does that mean Comcast can't interfere anymore?

 

[Tymminator]

If Comcast does bid some more, I can’t help but think they are going to inflate the price of the Majority shares of Sky too much for any one buyer to get both Fox and the rest of the Sky shares.

 

[Orba]

I think, at this moment, Disney wouldn’t be borrowing so much that they couldn’t function normally, but if this drags on and Disney ends up paying over $90 billion, that could require them to cut some corners in terms of future bidding on some things.

Yeah, if you look at their current offer its about $70 billion, only about half of which is cash, the rest is stock which is coming from the $100 billion of treasury stock they hold atm. So they are borrowing about $35 billion but will have to sell the RSNs, which are worth $20-25 billion. When you factor in stuff like that at the end of the day the amount of debt will hold will not be too bad.

 

[GuestStar2004]

So once the shareholders vote does that mean Comcast can't interfere anymore?

Presumbaly yeah. but the reason why they put back the vote meeting is so they give enough time for Comcast to bid back anyway.

And logically how could they resist not waiting to see what happens? the price went up from $52 bil to $71 bil currently. all they really have to do is wait and let Disney and Comcast duel it out to see what their options are and how better off they become.

They don't care is Disney or Comcast get into debt to do it.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Each step forward that Fox/Disney take increases the amount Comcast would have to bid.

Comcast's initial bid had to be significantly higher than Disney's since Disney/Fox were already well into the process.

The DOJ approval was huge and probably put this out of Comcast's reach.

Comcast might have stopped the presses before the DOJ approval with a bid in the low to mid 80s.

After the approval, that number probably jumped up to over $90 billion minimum, and with each passing day, the number creeps up from there. The closer we get to the vote, the less interested shareholders will be in starting over.

The ballots, which will likely be mailed soon (if they haven't already), will have three choices: Do you want to accept the Disney deal? Yes, No, Abstain There won't be an option for "I want the huge, nonexistent Comcast bid."

After the vote, it's still theoretically possible that Comcast could bid, but a successful bid at that point would likely have to be over $100 billion.

So even without Disney raising their bid, the price to Comcast goes up with the simple passage of time.

 

[Detective Conan]

​

Even though I think Disney will ultimately prevail I fully expect the shareholder meeting scheduled for July 27th to be postponed. Comcast is really annoying and will likely put up another counter bid partially to stymie the momentum of the Disney deal and damage Disney's balance sheet(if they decide to match their offer).

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

​

Even though I think Disney will ultimately prevail I fully expect the shareholder meeting scheduled for July 27th to be postponed. Comcast is really annoying and will likely put up another counter bid partially to stymie the momentum of the Disney deal and damage Disney's balance sheet(if they decide to match their offer).

I suspect Disney and Comcast are talking about a deal for Sky. Whether or not Comcast bids again could depend on if Disney is willing to sell them Sky.

And since making a deal on Sky could save Disney tens of billions trying to counter a new Comcast offer, I think Disney might be willing to deal.

 

[Zarex]

I'm thinking the vote will take place on the 27th. Iger put up the cash to top Kabletown by a not insignificant amount. The DOJ has given the deal its blessing. And Rupert has signed pricey rights deals with the WWE and the NFL to move away from scripted content into New Fox. An additional 6 month to 1 year delay keeps his TV production unit (mostly) on ice and costs him money he would prefer not to spend.

Further delay runs the risk that Iger will start looking around for other places to spend his money and won't be available to pick up the pieces if the DOJ gives the thumbs down to Roberts. There's also the risk that the FAANGs become even more entrenched in film & TV and the value of the RSNs, FX, FXX, and the FOX TV and film production units plummet before being rejected by the DOJ.

My guess is Rupert will try to push the vote through on the 27th regardless of Roberts' next move, but we shall see.

 

[ADollarADay]

Received the updated proxy vote from DIS, FOX, and FOXA.