The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 22

[Dark Raven]

I wonder if, in the Marvel-Sony deal, there was any kind of first option to buy the Spider-Man rights if Sony were to sell them.

Also, I hope if they ever did come to sell, that there isn't a bidding war that starts because someone else wants them (eg Comcast).

 

[Big Bang]

Remember Disney are bidding on Sky through Fox. So the only limit here is Fox. I believe Fox are obligated to bid unless Disney says otherwise.

Disney is taking on considerable debt from not only the transaction of buying Fox, but also assuming responsibility for Fox's existing debt, which is somewhere in the neighborhood of $11 billion. On its own it is enough to cause concern, but that will be ok so long as Disney continues having good cash flow. Adding Sky to that mix brings a lot more uncertainty.

Well that only works if they manage to call his bluff and he does up his bid again. If not, then Disney will be the ones ending up buying Sky and taking on more debt.

I thought Sky favours Comcast anyway.

Sky favors whoever promises the most £££, and right now that is Comcast.

 

[Darkprime]

Make no mistake Disney have protections in place so Sony cant just pull spiderman from the mcu without paying loss and damages.

 

[MasterCat]

Kaz Hirai stepping down and Kenichiro Yoshida taking his place makes me lean even more so with my gut that within 5 years or so, Disney will end up owning all of Spidey.

Have you seen the leaked Sony emails? They thought they could get $5 billion from Disney for the Spidey rights (after paying around $25 million way back when...), or that they could quickly build up to a Sinister Six film that would predictably make $2 billion worldwide.
They're pretty delusional about Spidey. I'd be surprised if Sony even divests their whole studio division at fair market value.

 

[Marvel united]

Foreign approvals, and Federal judge sign off on sale of RSN's.

Deal closes, then RSN sale begins.

If that's all that's left, couldn't the deal be done in October or November? Only 2 more hurdles to climb after this, no way it'll take all way till June 2019

 

[Darkprime]

Have you seen the leaked Sony emails? They thought they could get $5 billion from Disney for the Spidey rights (after paying around $25 million way back when...), or that they could quickly build up to a Sinister Six film that would predictably make $2 billion worldwide.
They're pretty delusional about Spidey. I'd be surprised if Sony even divests their whole studio division at fair market value.

5 billion would be change for Disney. Worth it for the library of characters they get access to.

 

[ADollarADay]

Make no mistake Disney have protections in place so Sony cant just pull spiderman from the mcu without paying loss and damages.

They should, but we haven't seen the 2015 amended contract.

The North Koreans should hack Sony again lol

5 billion would be change for Disney. Worth it for the librwry of characters thry get access to.

Incorrect. On both counts.

 

[Darkprime]

If that's all that's left, couldn't the deal be done in October or November? Only 2 more hurdles to climb after this, no way it'll take all way till June 2019

July 2019 was the estimation for full studio integration. On top of a 18 month regulatory process.

 

[Big Bang]

Disney could make a move on the spiderman rights when they revisit the upcoming contract renewal.

If they sell off their 39% stake in Sky to Comcast, then I would say that it is highly likely they would. Though as a combined Disney+Fox, you can expect them to very much play hardball with Sony, because they can. Pound for pound, the combined company is something like 4x the value of all of Sony. Not only that, but what has Sony done in the years since signing the deal with Marvel for sharing the rights? Sony was supposed to have had a couple of their own Spidey films out by now, and we have yet to see a single one. We are almost just now getting the first one, and its an animated film.

My, how fortunes have reversed.

 

[Dark Raven]

If that's all that's left, couldn't the deal be done in October or November? Only 2 more hurdles to climb after this, no way it'll take all way till June 2019

I thought June 2019 was the original timeline before the DOJ approved the deal much quicker than anyone thought.

But surely it could be done before Oct or Nov if it's just foreign approval. How long does that take, and why should it take so long?

 

[Spider-Fan]

Make no mistake Disney have protections in place so Sony cant just pull spiderman from the mcu without paying loss and damages.

Sony isn't "pulling" him out of the MCU. If they don't sign a new contract with Marvel, both sides will have fulfilled the 5 film obligation. Therefore it is a contract was fulfilled. That is not forcefully pulling him out. There is no way in a contract to say this contract must be renewed once the obligations are fulfilled or money is owed. That's not how a contract works. That would only apply if the contract terms were not met. After Far From Home, the terms of THIS contract will have been met.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I think Daredevil is better left on TV. It is a more mature book than the Marvel movies would allow on screen. I'd rather it be a show and retain the edge. Daredevil on Netflix is best.

I agree. I really don't think Daredevil (or Jessica Jones or Punisher) would be a good fit for the tone of the MCU. While a film could get a bigger budget, the characters would likely end up being watered downed. I'd much rather see a proper Punisher on Netflix than a PG-13 Punisher on the big screen. The latter would not be a good representation of what the character is.

 

[Big Bang]

5 billion would be change for Disney. Worth it for the librwry of characters thry get access to.

There is no way Disney pays that much. Not even close. We are talking about a beefed up Disney who can (and kind of already does) toy with Sony in the film industry.

 

[Dark Raven]

If they sell off their 39% stake in Sky to Comcast, then I would say that it is highly likely they would. Though as a combined Disney+Fox, you can expect them to very much play hardball with Sony, because they can. Pound for pound, the combined company is something like 4x the value of all of Sony. Not only that, but what has Sony done in the years since signing the deal with Marvel for sharing the rights? Sony was supposed to have had a couple of their own Spidey films out by now, and we have yet to see a single one. We are almost just now getting the first one, and its an animated film.

My, how fortunes have reversed.

In that case, Disney should use their 39% stake to get the Universal Marvel rights back and some cash, and then launch a full all-out assault on Sony to get Spidey back. What reason would Disney want to keep that 39%?

If they played all their cards right, Disney could potentially get ALL the Marvel rights back.

 

[Marvel united]

I thought June 2019 was the original timeline before the DOJ approved the deal much quicker than anyone thought.

But surely it could be done before Oct or Nov if it's just foreign approval. How long does that take, and why should it take so long?

That's what I was thinking which is why everyone still throwing around the 2019 date is confusing to me

 

[ADollarADay]

There is no way Disney pays that much. Not even close. We are talking about a beefed up Disney who can (and kind of already does) toy with Sony in the film industry.

All of Spider man rights, which includes licensing, tv rights, and merchandising, is not worth 5B. Let alone just the movie rights.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

There is no way Disney pays that much. Not even close. We are talking about a beefed up Disney who can (and kind of already does) toy with Sony in the film industry.

The real money with Spider-Man is in the merchandise rights, which Disney already has in full anyways.

 

[Big Bang]

That's what I was thinking which is why everyone still throwing around the 2019 date is confusing to me

Because it was the original guidance that Iger offered based on their projections. That changed dramatically when the DOJ approved the deal as quickly as they did. Disney was wise to play ball and let go of the RSN's.

 

[MasterCat]

I don't see anything wrong with Sony making a long series of sequels to the Marvel-produced Spider-Man films, except that they'd overstuff them with villains because they're obsessed with a quick Sinister Six. Avengers guest stars don't make Spider-Man stories better; the Ditko/Lee, Lee with Romita Sr, and '80s runs with the Hobgoblin and Symbiote demonstrate that.
If they let Marvel Studios produce Tom Holland's Spider-Man 3&4, then everything should be fine after that.

 

[Darkprime]

I remember when the deal was first announced many speculated that Sony saying they still had control over spiderman was just to save face. Yea sony you can say you still have control but not really. Just sit back from here and let the money roll in.

 

[ADollarADay]

In that case, Disney should use their 39% stake to get the Universal Marvel rights back and some cash, and then launch a full all-out assault on Sony to get Spidey back. What reason would Disney want to keep that 39%?

If they played all their cards right, Disney could potentially get ALL the Marvel rights back.

The sale of Sky may not even be needed. Sony is interested in buying Endemol. Post acquisition, Disney will own 50% of that. Endemol has been valued at 4B

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/endemol-shine-banks-evaluate-sale-1202851854/

Just like the 39% of Sky from Disney to the 30% of Hulu from Comcast + Marvel rights + cash, a similar deal could be reached with Sony for 50% of Endemol for SM movie rights + cash.

 

[Dark Raven]

This image, posted on the very first page of the rebooted thread in 2015, is going to take on an entirely different meaning very soon:

Fantastic Four Go Home!

And 9% + 30% = 39%, the exact percentage Disney own of Sky which they could use to bargain with Comcast!

 

[Big Bang]

The real money with Spider-Man is in the merchandise rights, which Disney already has in full anyways.

Yep, and everybody knows it too. Sony looks like fools for letting that go.

All of Spider man rights, which includes licensing, tv rights, and merchandising, is not worth 5B. Let alone just the movie rights.

If the film rights even approached $1 billion, I'd be very surprised.

Sony can try to play games, but they'd lose badly. They might have gotten away with some shenanigans years ago, but now on the precipice of a combined Disney+Fox, there is just no way. In fact, hanging onto the rights this long may come back to haunt them.

 

[Darkprime]

I just hope we get some clarification soon on whats happening with Spiderman. If spiderman keeps appearing in the MCU post far from home then we can kind of assume ether the deal was renewed or Disney basically own spiderman at this point.

 

[Dark Raven]

The sale of Sky may not even be needed. Sony is interested in buying Endemol. Post acquisition, Disney will own 50% of that. Endemol has been valued at 4B

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/endemol-shine-banks-evaluate-sale-1202851854/

Just like the 39% of Sky from Disney to the 30% of Hulu from Comcast + Marvel rights + cash, a similar deal could be reached with Sony for 50% of Endemol for SM movie rights + cash.

So the acquisition of Fox could really kill 3 birds with one stone as far as Disney are concerned when it come to the Marvel rights:

1) Gain all of the Marvel Fox rights back
2) Use the 39% of Sky to get the Universal Marvel rights back
3) Use the 50% of Endemol to get the Sony Marvel rights back