The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 22

[Spider-Fan]

I am not so sure Sony will be quick to sell Spider-Man yet. Outside of Spider-Man, they don't have a ton of hits recently. Right now, it is Jumanji and Spider-Man. This is why I totally understand the thinking behind the Spider-Verse thing. Milk the one thing you have for all it is worth. If they sell Spider-Man, they don't really have any sure fire hits at this point outside of Jumanji. I think Sony is going to be very stubborn. They may renew with Marvel Studios to keep the brand in good standing (and I expect them to), but I don't see a sale of Spider-Man back to Marvel at this point.

 

[Big Bang]

The sale of Sky may not even be needed. Sony is interested in buying Endemol. Post acquisition, Disney will own 50% of that. Endemol has been valued at 4B

https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/endemol-shine-banks-evaluate-sale-1202851854/

Just like the 39% of Sky from Disney to the 30% of Hulu from Comcast + Marvel rights + cash, a similar deal could be reached with Sony for 50% of Endemol for SM movie rights + cash.

Now that is interesting.

This image, posted on the very first page of the rebooted thread in 2015, is going to take on an entirely different meaning very soon:

Fantastic Four Go Home!

And 9% + 30% = 39%, the exact percentage Disney own of Sky which they could use to bargain with Comcast!

 

[Detective Conan]

Yep, and everybody knows it too. Sony looks like fools for letting that go.

Spider-Man likely would've never have come home if not for them making such a colossal mistake in selling the merchandise though.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I am not so sure Sony will be quick to sell Spider-Man yet. Outside of Spider-Man, they don't have a ton of hits recently. Right now, it is Jumanji and Spider-Man. This is why I totally understand the thinking behind the Spider-Verse thing. Milk the one thing you have for all it is worth. If they sell Spider-Man, they don't really have any sure fire hits at this point outside of Jumanji. I think Sony is going to be very stubborn. They may renew with Marvel Studios to keep the brand in good standing (and I expect them to), but I don't see a sale of Spider-Man back to Marvel at this point.

I don't think they have much of anything besides Spider-Man. They even lost the Bond distribution rights.

A renewal of the current Marvel deal would make the most sense for them, although egos could get in the way.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

This image, posted on the very first page of the rebooted thread in 2015, is going to take on an entirely different meaning very soon:

Fantastic Four Go Home!

And 9% + 30% = 39%, the exact percentage Disney own of Sky which they could use to bargain with Comcast!

 

[GoblinScrier]

What time tentatively tomorrow does the GREAT news take place? If it has been said and I missed it, I apologize....

 

[Darkprime]

I think the current deal is great as it still allows Sony to develop things like into the spiderverse but the deal needs to be altered so Feige can use Venom and all the other characters.

 

[Dark Raven]

I don't think they have much of anything besides Spider-Man. They even lost the Bond distribution rights.

A renewal of the current Marvel deal would make the most sense for them, although egos could get in the way.

Wait, what? Who has the Bond distribution rights now?

Who had the Spider-Man rights before Sony? Was it MGM?

I know that Spidey and Bond were both used as bargaining tools before 2002. Sony got the Spidey rights and MGM/ Danjac got the Thunderball/NSNA/ McClory rights and Casino Royale.

But one lesson to learn from that is that Danjac got ALL the Bond rights back eventually. Every single one. The same could happen with Marvel too.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I found this interesting in the context of "after credits scenes" we've been talking about/hoping for:

http://****************.com/movies/mcu-directors-roundtable-reveals-truth-shawarma-avengers/

It talks about the shawarma scene, and if I'm reading this correctly, they had the actors together for the European premiere of the film and took the opportunity to film the scene - which must have been very close to the actual film release that featured the scene.

So that shows how quickly they can film a scene and get it added to the film if they choose. t:

 

[Darkprime]

What time tentatively tomorrow does the GREAT news take place? If it has been said and I missed it, I apologize....

10am GMT

 

[Spider-Fan]

Wait, what? Who has the Bond distribution rights now?

Who had the Spider-Man rights before Sony? Was it MGM?

I know that Spidey and Bond were both used as bargaining tools before 2002. Sony got the Spidey rights and MGM/ Danjac got the Thunderball/NSNA/ McClory rights and Casino Royale.

But one lesson to learn from that is that Danjac got ALL the Bond rights back eventually. Every single one. The same could happen with Marvel too.

I believe Universal has Bond now.

 

[Big Bang]

So the acquisition of Fox could really kill 3 birds with one stone as far as Disney are concerned when it come to the Marvel rights:

1) Gain all of the Marvel Fox rights back
2) Use the 39% of Sky to get the Universal Marvel rights back
3) Use the 50% of Endemol to get the Sony Marvel rights back

That would be something.

I am not so sure Sony will be quick to sell Spider-Man yet. Outside of Spider-Man, they don't have a ton of hits recently. Right now, it is Jumanji and Spider-Man. This is why I totally understand the thinking behind the Spider-Verse thing. Milk the one thing you have for all it is worth. If they sell Spider-Man, they don't really have any sure fire hits at this point outside of Jumanji. I think Sony is going to be very stubborn. They may renew with Marvel Studios to keep the brand in good standing (and I expect them to), but I don't see a sale of Spider-Man back to Marvel at this point.

I have to wonder if Sony can afford to be stubborn though. They can't afford to rely on Marvel Studios to make the Spider-Man films for them for too long, but they also cannot afford not to. Being the company that leeches off of Marvel and produces little else is not going to do wonders for their brand.

 

[MasterCat]

Anyway, about the Sinister Six: FFH is pretty much confirmed to have two new villains (guessed to be Mysterio and the Chameleon). The Scorpion must be in #3 if the franchise's first stinger teased him, right? So where is his suit going to come from - Oscorp? That would get you six villains for #4. After that, Kraven, Doc Ock and Dr. Connors could queue up as sole villains like they deserve.

 

[Dark Raven]

10am GMT

What? Really? But that means for Disney and Fox (assuming the meeting is happening in New York) that it will be at 5 am EST. Why on earth would they be getting up for a meeting that early instead of holding it during regular business hours (eg 10 am EST)?

I believe Universal has Bond now.

Damn Universal Exports!

 

[Darkprime]

Im surprised Sony wanted to still co finance and distribute the spidey movies would have been a better deal to let disney and marvel handle that but still make it so they got a % of the box office.

 

[DyfeddRex]

Thank Eternity that that long article on the site that shall not be named did not mention names. I'd hate to think someone thinks we have the inside track here.

We just speculate, or I hope that is all we do.

 

[Darkprime]

What? Really? But that means for Disney and Fox (assuming the meeting is happening in New York) that it will be at 5 am EST. Why on earth would they be getting up for a meeting that early instead of holding it during regular business hours (eg 10 am EST)?

Thats what the variety article said last month when the meeting was announced yea its in New York.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Im surprised Sony wanted to still co finance and distribute the spidey movies would have been a better deal to let disney and marvel handle that but still make it so they got a % of the box office.

Why make a % of BO, when they can make 100% of the BO earnings? In your model, they make less money.

 

[Big Bang]

Anyway, about the Sinister Six: FFH is pretty much confirmed to have two new villains (guessed to be Mysterio and the Chameleon). The Scorpion must be in #3 if the franchise's first stinger teased him, right? So where is his suit going to come from - Oscorp? That would get you six villains for #4. After that, Kraven, Doc Ock and Dr. Connors could queue up as sole villains like they deserve.

I like. Hopefully we'll get a skyline shot of the Oscorp tower.....and hopefully Four Freedoms Plaza.

 

[Dark Raven]

Thats what the variety article said last month when the meeting was announced yea its in New York.

That must be a mistake. Surely they mean 10 am EST.

Let's suppose some people showing up to the meeting have to commute. Are they going to be getting up at 4 am or earlier if it is at 5 am EST (which would be 10 am GMT)?

Maybe it's so early so that no-one will be in any state of mind to question anything or argue. They'll all want to get back to bed.

 

[Darkprime]

Why make a % of BO, when they can make 100% of the BO earnings? In your model, they make less money.

How so? In the current deal they have to spend more to co finance and distribute them.

 

[Marvel united]

Marvel seems really stubborn abour using old vilains in the Spider-Man movies which sucks because Norman Osborn is so much more than the Goblin. You could have a Dark Reign adaptation for a whole phase

 

[DyfeddRex]

What? Really? But that means for Disney and Fox (assuming the meeting is happening in New York) that it will be at 5 am EST. Why on earth would they be getting up for a meeting that early instead of holding it during regular business hours (eg 10 am EST)?



Damn Universal Exports!

This kind of news needs to hit either just before the US markets open, or after trading hours, I think. That, and it is a signal to Europe that they plan to continue quest for SKY, by doing it during their trading hours. Drives up the price on Comquack, if nothing else.

 

[Spider-Fan]

How so? In the current deal they have to spend more to co finance and distribute them.

Because they would get a small percentage if they don't finance the movie. It's a bad deal. That is why Marvel formed Marvel Studios in the first place. They made peanuts on these movies. Disney is not going to give Sony like, 30% or whatever BO for not putting up money. There percentage would be lucky to be 10%, and for easy math 10% of 800mil is 80mil. But if they finance it themsevles, all profit is theirs. Which will easily eclipse that. I only used 10% as easy math also in my example. Likely they would have gotten even less. Also, that 80 mil would be even further broken up because films don't make 100% of BO revenue from theaters. They get a percentage. So cut that 80mil I gave you in half.


It doesn't make business sense to do it your way.

 

[ADollarADay]

I am not so sure Sony will be quick to sell Spider-Man yet. Outside of Spider-Man, they don't have a ton of hits recently. Right now, it is Jumanji and Spider-Man. This is why I totally understand the thinking behind the Spider-Verse thing. Milk the one thing you have for all it is worth. If they sell Spider-Man, they don't really have any sure fire hits at this point outside of Jumanji. I think Sony is going to be very stubborn. They may renew with Marvel Studios to keep the brand in good standing (and I expect them to), but I don't see a sale of Spider-Man back to Marvel at this point.

The ROI on SPE is pathetic. Something like 3% lol. The profit margin for all other subsidiaries is significantly higher. SPE is always being brought up by the TV side btw, hence the major interest in Endemol. Sony should double down on TV and maybe Crackle (as they are trying to find an investor to fix that mess) and divest of Tristar, Columbia, and SPA (though they could keep the latter and find a distributor, SPA is bank). They have some franchises at SPE, they just don't know what to do with them. They should give shareholders a good return for their money, SPE - and especially movies - is failing badly. On the flipside they can double down and try to acquire MGM and Lionsgate, though that could bite them in the ass hard. They tried that before and led a consortium that acquired MGM for 5B back in the early 2000s. That didn't work out and it was one of the many things that drove Sony to like a 20 or 30B market valuation.


I'm long SNE ADR as well and have wanted them to divest Pictures even before I cared about the MCU (which only happened in 2015 before CW).

I don't think they have much of anything besides Spider-Man. They even lost the Bond distribution rights.

A renewal of the current Marvel deal would make the most sense for them, although egos could get in the way.

Yeah but would a post Fox acquisition Disney want such a deal? A deal where they pay Sony a % of the BO gross of the movies Feige and friends produce? I think they will want to simplify this damn thing or wish Sony good luck. Especially now that they will double their sandbox and make the X-Men and FF relevant again. X-Men was actually on par if not bigger than SM back in the 90s.

Wait, what? Who has the Bond distribution rights now?

Who had the Spider-Man rights before Sony? Was it MGM?

I know that Spidey and Bond were both used as bargaining tools before 2002. Sony got the Spidey rights and MGM/ Danjac got the Thunderball/NSNA/ McClory rights and Casino Royale.

But one lesson to learn from that is that Danjac got ALL the Bond rights back eventually. Every single one. The same could happen with Marvel too.

Anapurna/MGM domestic and Universal international IIRC. It is just for Bond 25 and then the rights go up to the highest bidder again.

MGM had SM before Sony. It was actually a mess and it involved another player as well. Marvel was a mess.

What? Really? But that means for Disney and Fox (assuming the meeting is happening in New York) that it will be at 5 am EST. Why on earth would they be getting up for a meeting that early instead of holding it during regular business hours (eg 10 am EST)?



Damn Universal Exports!

It is 10AM EST.

https://www.thewaltdisneycompany.com/the-walt-disney-companys-special-meeting-of-shareholders/