The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 24

[TheVileOne]

How are the dealings in just one country blocking this deal?

 

[Zyraquis]

It can sink a deal, if approval in a certain country is part of the conditions. In most big mergers anti trust approvals from a number of countries are part of the conditions and the norm. Qualcomm and NXP fulfilled all but one condition, approval in China, and the deal was off. China didn’t even reject it; it just didn’t do anything — yes or no, before the deal completion deadline.

As for Brazil, it is moving slowing but it is moving. One key agency just recently recommended some remedies which are easy to do.
https://sei.cade.gov.br/sei/modulos...X1VN4cp3Xa-c_cEAJl4JLuXWtcivFCVm9Q_3mczn7DmBk

 

[wobbly]

It can sink a deal, if approval in a certain country is part of the conditions. In most big mergers anti trust approvals from a number of countries are part of the conditions and the norm. Qualcomm and NXP fulfilled all but one condition, approval in China, and the deal was off. China didn’t even reject it; it just didn’t do anything — yes or no, before the deal completion deadline.

As for Brazil, it is moving slowing but it is moving. One key agency just recently recommended some remedies which are easy to do.
https://sei.cade.gov.br/sei/modulos...X1VN4cp3Xa-c_cEAJl4JLuXWtcivFCVm9Q_3mczn7DmBk

Qualcomm were screwed without China approval though, as something like 75% of thier revenue is generated there, so they had zero wriggle room with them.

Brazil is a big market but I'm not sure they alone could scupper the deal (I stand to be corrected as I'm not certain in that at all).

Probably a moot point in any event. Disney will do whatever is required.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I'm not even slightly concerned. Disney will close this very soon - not because of the Marvel properties we're all concerned about, but they want to launch their streaming service to start collecting market share as soon as absolutely possible and they're not going to let Brazil delay that by even a week.

They'll make something happen. Brazil knows they want this to happen soon, so they're probably trying to get as much as possible. Disney will either give them what they want or (at least temporarily) withdraw from the market.

I still expect the deal to close before the end of Feb, but I'd almost guarantee it will be closed before the end of March.

 

[Dark Raven]

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What a revolting development!

It's like Marvel Two-in-One where Thing fought an earlier incarnation of himself (the version after he just became the Thing):

 

[Zyraquis]

Qualcomm were screwed without China approval though, as something like 75% of thier revenue is generated there, so they had zero wriggle room with them.

Brazil is a big market but I'm not sure they alone could scupper the deal (I stand to be corrected as I'm not certain in that at all).

Probably a moot point in any event. Disney will do whatever is required.

It’s not about the size of the market it’s about conditions to fulfill. If it’s a condition the deal needs it before the deadline doesn’t matter whether it’s a big market or not.

 

[Zyraquis]

Disney will either give them what they want or (at least temporarily) withdraw from the market.

Unfortunately they can’t “withdraw” from a market then come back to it when the merger is done. Either they sell the assets and exit completely then re enter if they want.(yup the authority will give it a hard time trying to get back after pulling that trick) or they stay put waiting for the nod to come. If they sell they need time to find a buyer, and everyone and their mother know it’s desparate good luck on valuation. Then since part of the assets is gone they have to rework the merger deal with new valuation maybe now a higher cash component with the sale proceeds, then present it to shareholders again a revised deal, get the approval and all the paperwork and whatnot.

It could get a conditional approval from a sticky market promising to sell the assets in question post merger but then if they can’t find a buyer within a deadline then it is another headache the merger could be ordered to split at least in that market.

That’s why even it’s painful most big mergers go through the approval process in various markets than going other routes. They should have already done internal analysis knowing that very likely they will pass all merger controls before announcing the deal. The Qualcomm deal was sunk by politics China couldn’t even come up with reasons to reject it just gave it silence treatment and let it die a natural death.

 

[Shuri]

Black Panther's Best Picture nomination should have been announced with a trigger warning. The Internet's sodium level has reached dangerous highs. The best part of all the whining is knowing that many of these people will remain bitter about this for the rest of their days.

The only better thing will be Black Panther winning. There will be enough angry tears shed to end a ten-year drought.

I find their bitterness entertaining and hilarious. Once BP started breaking records the anger and snide comments started. Its been a year and I thought they would cool off by now, but it got worse. Whether BP wins anything or not (it deserves costume and production design) no one can take away it's achievements no matter how many essay they write on how overrated it is.

 

[Timebomb]

Yup, LOL! Civil War and Infinity War are both better than Age of Ultron. Though I do think Age of Ultron is an underrated movie.

Pretty much yup.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Unfortunately they can’t “withdraw” from a market then come back to it when the merger is done. Either they sell the assets and exit completely then re enter if they want.(yup the authority will give it a hard time trying to get back after pulling that trick) If they sell they need time to find a buyer, and everyone and their mother know it’s desparate good luck on valuation. Then since part of the assets is gone they have to rework the merger deal with new valuation maybe now a higher cash component with the sale proceeds, then present it to shareholders again a revised deal, get the approval and all the paperwork and whatnot.

It could get a conditional approval from a sticky market promising to sell the assets in question post merger but then if they can’t find a buyer within a deadline then it is another headache the merger could be ordered to split at least in that market.

That’s why even it’s painful most big mergers go through the approval process in various markets than going other routes. They should have already done internal analysis knowing that very likely they will pass all merger controls before announcing the deal. The Qualcomm deal was sunk by politics China couldn’t even come up with reasons to reject it just gave it silence treatment and let it die a natural death.

What assets do they specifically have in Brazil? They're primarily selling content and distribution. They can't have much in terms of hard assets in Brazil. They can stop offering the distribution and content and close any offices related to that distribution and content. They don't have to sell anything unless they feel there is enough value there to justify a sale. And if there are assets worth selling, they could put them in a third-party holding company.

I'm sure they want to keep the Brazil business or get something from it, but this deal is far too important for them to scrap it over a few bucks from Brazil. They probably would have easily gone $10-20 billion higher on their bid if they had to. Is there anything in Brazil worth $10-20 billion?

 

[Zyraquis]

Well if they have any legal entities there, they can’t just go pack and go. It’s a big Corp after all not a street vendor. There are procedures to take to liquidate, unwind and exit even if it is willing writing off “a few bucks” if that’s how much it really is worth then tell the counter party hey now I am worth less but I still offer you the same. Wonderful if that’s how the real world works. Even if it were, it could take time (long stop date to meet) and again it changes the deal and will need to revise the docs. Now it’s in the conditions it’s better off to go through with it. I think I’m done explaining the practicality of it believe this or not.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Well if they have any legal entities there, they can’t just go pack and go. It’s a big Corp after all not a street vendor. There are procedures to take to liquidate, unwind and exit even if it is willing writing off “a few bucks” if that’s how much it really is worth then tell the counter party hey now I am worth less but I still offer you the same. Wonderful if that’s how the real world works. Even if it were, it could take time (long stop date to meet) and again it changes the deal and will need to revise the docs. Now it’s in the conditions it’s better off to go through with it.

Okay, let's put the details aside a minute. I say this the deal will be closed on or before March 31. Agree or disagree?

 

[Zyraquis]

I don’t see any reason Brazil will block it. The authorities are slow in Latam, just some minor adjustments it’s good to go. Even the SG has no main issue. Should close in this quarter I think

 

[PsylockeBlackWidow]

As for Brazil, it is moving slowing but it is moving. One key agency just recently recommended some remedies which are easy to do.

What are the remedies since I do not speak Portuguese.

 

[Zyraquis]

Basically ancine the movie agency recommends that as long as the merged entities keep equal conditions to both big and small pay tv operators and don’t do any tied sale or exclusivity obligations with anyone it’s fine. The recommendations are about what it should/shouldn’t do post merger given the increased market power. Nothing to do with assets divestment.

It’s responding to General superintendent office (SG) which only has some concerns in pay tv (17 channels post merger) but not film distribution. Btw,the SG also recommended conditional approval back in early December

 

[Darkprime]

So it's possible the MLex source is bull****? And approval will come on Jan 30th. No one else is reporting this delay in approval. I think it might be a bad source with out of date info.

 

[Detective Conan]

According to Campea(based on a source he really trusts) "Fox is panicking over the movie" and "they don't know what to do with the movie."

What if funny enough Fox ends up shelving this film?

 

[Darkprime]

Fox never should have let Kinberg helm the project as his directorial debut. What the hell were they thinking? Theres a reason Roberto Orci got booted of Star Trek Beyond. You dont hand a $150m movie to a director for his directorial debut. You just dont. And Fox are now realising ****. We made a mistake what do now.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

According to Campea(based on a source he really trust).Fox is panicking over the movie" and they don't know "what to do with the movie"

What if funny enough Fox ends uo shelving this film?

I don't think they can afford to shelve it. No matter how bad it is, releasing it guarantees about $100 million in their pocket. I don't think they're going to just throw away $100 million.

They could try to use it as a way to draw people to their streaming service, but that gets a bit tricky. If they put it out there as a reason to sign up, and then it's completely terrible, it may be a poor way to launch the service.

If anything, Disney will want to disavow themselves of it, and if they release it, even after the closing, they can still blame it on Fox. If they put it on their streaming service, they'd own it more.

... and they can't really say: "Check out Dark Pheonix in Disney +. It's really terrible, but watch it with your friends over a couple beers, and it could be a fun time. LOL." Though that would be a brilliant experiment in "honest marketing".

 

[Spider-Fan]

I don't think they can afford to shelve it. No matter how bad it is, releasing it guarantees about $100 million in their pocket. I don't think they're going to just throw away $100 million.

They could try to use it as a way to draw people to their streaming service, but that gets a bit tricky. If they put it out there as a reason to sign up, and then it's completely terrible, it may be a poor way to launch the service.

If anything, Disney will want to disavow themselves of it, and if they release it, even after the closing, they can still blame it on Fox. If they put it on their streaming service, they'd own it more.

... and they can't really say: "Check out Dark Pheonix in Disney +. It's really terrible, but watch it with your friends over a couple beers, and it could be a fun time. LOL." Though that would be a brilliant experiment in "honest marketing".

Hmmmm....if I ever make a bad movie, I may attempt that

 

[Darkprime]

No one will blame Disney for Dark Phoenix.Whether it releases or not. Disney can probably just write it off as a loss at this point and whatever money it makes at this point is a bonus. The money theyll make from the MCU Reboot will make up for any loss. Theyll move quickly on a MCU reboot. The shareholders will want to see results from their 71 billion dollar purchase asap.

 

[Marvel united]

Netflix has plenty of bad movies releasing on their service. I think Disney could use it as a marketing tool: as the "epic conclusion to the X-Men film series. Only on Disney+"

 

[Darkprime]

Yup also Dark Phoenix being on Disney+ means Disney can hide the number of views it gets when if Dark Phoenix gets a theatrical release they cant hide the negative box office results.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Maybe six months after the service launches?

I just think there's a danger in touting it as a reason to subscribe as they're just starting out and people don't know what to expect.

If that's their flagship, and it's awful, people are likely to say: "Wow, this new Disney service sucks."

 

[SumT]

yeah, I dont like the idea of a x-men movie debuting on Disney service when they will soon start their version. I dont want general audience to get a bad perception of the x-men from disney, even if Fox made it, but most viewers wont know that if they watch it casually on the service.

just release it on theatres, if it has a bad opening weekend, just keep it 3 weeks on theatres and close its run soon. but dont let Disney + debut a mediocre x-men movie made by a studio that never really cared about the characters.