The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread II

[Tacit Ronin]

Damn! This is great news!

Now just about 28 million more and as the Joker once said...."Now we're talkin'!"

What great news? Someone upping their prediction by 4 million?

 

[BatLobster]

That's got to be the highest tracking figure of all time. Avengers was tracking to do $150 million is memory serves, and smashed that prediction by $57 million. So I have to imagine tracking at 190 has to be pretty much the highest a movie as ever been predicted to make OW. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong though.

 

[Boom]

Of course, there's always the chance that it'll fall short of that prediction.

 

[redfirebird2008]

That's got to be the highest tracking figure of all time. Avengers was tracking to do $150 million is memory serves, and smashed that prediction by $57 million. So I have to imagine tracking at 190 has to be pretty much the highest a movie as ever been predicted to make OW. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong though.

No, you're correct. One of the tracking companies (RS) had Avengers in the 160's, while it currently has TDKR in the mid-180's. MTC turned out to be completely wrong for Avengers (140's), so it will be interesting to see what they say for TDKR. RS gets updated every week, but MTC won't show up until the week of release. BO.com isn't a tracking service, they're just posting predictions based on their own gut feeling and analysis. They had Avengers over 170 the week it came out if I remember right.

Of course, there's always the chance that it'll fall short of that prediction.

This is quite possible. I'm predicting $160m. Haven't seen enough evidence that it will be bigger than that. Besides, $160m is huge in its own right. Here is an example where tracking overpredicted by a long shot: Iron Man 2. RS was tracking mid-160's for it while MTC said low 140's. It ended up at $128m. Usually when MTC is lower than RS, it's a sign of an underperformer. However, both Potter last year and Avengers this year blew the "MTC < RS" rule out of the water. There is some speculation that MTC has a hard time figuring out 3D movies and that might explain some of the issues with Potter and Avengers. But MTC also lowballed Inception compared to RS, so there's a recent example of a 2D film outperforming the "MTC < RS" rule.

 

[BatLobster]

Ah, right on. I'd say anywhere below 170 would be a slight underperformance, anything above 185 will be above and beyond.

 

[Boom]

And that's not taking into account those who haven't purchased a ticket yet, right?

 

[redfirebird2008]

And that's not taking into account those who haven't purchased a ticket yet, right?

Incorrect. The tracking services predict the opening weekend based on surveys with average moviegoers. They aren't going off of pre-sales. They tend to be a lot more accurate on smaller openers. For instance, Brave opened with $66m this weekend and at least one of the tracking services had it at $60m. The bigger the weekends are, the more difficult tracking becomes.

 

[Art Damage]

What great news? Someone upping their prediction by 4 million?

Yeah that would be it.

 

[DarthAlani]

I'm predicting $185m. But if this somehow manages to beat Avengers ow , things will get very ugly.

 

[Art Damage]

I have a pretty good feeling we'll be looking at it actually tracking at its predicted 190 million..

 

[redfirebird2008]

I'm predicting $185m. But if this somehow manages to beat Avengers ow , things will get very ugly.

I think it'll be ugly regardless. Just one of those things. What will be interesting to me is if it actually manages to beat Avengers admissions (around $185m without 3D), will WB have the nerve to brag about it? The last time I can think of a knock down, drag out fight involved Disney and Sony regarding the worldwide openings of Pirates 3 and Spider-Man 3. They were giving each other all kinds of hell in the press.

 

[DarthAlani]

WB might hold off, unless they break the record. But the fanboys will be exchanging fire all over the net.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

It has to gross more than $175 million OW to sell more tickets than TDK. Roughly that is.

Exactly. It will sell more tickets Foreign (for obvious reasons), and eventually it probably will Domestic, but it wont beat TDK OW ticket sales.

Im a fan of Spidey, TA, and Nolan Bats. I think we can set a good example here for civil discourse. It really isnt a competition, despite all the silliness on the various boards.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Exactly. It will sell more tickets Foreign (for obvious reasons), and eventually it probably will Domestic, but it wont beat TDK OW.

It has a better shot of beating TDK's opening admissions than beating its total admissions in the domestic market. People forget it had a 3.37 multiplier, which is unreal for such a big opener. It sold 22 million tickets on opening weekend and 71 million total. The odds of it beating the 71 million number are slim to none IMHO. Just for some perspective, here is the list of biggest Batman admissions in North America:

TDK - 71 million
B89 - 63 million
Forever - 42 million
Returns - 39 million
Begins - 32 million
Robin - 23 million

Notice the huge gap between the two movies featuring the Joker and the four movies not featuring the Joker? It's a huge uphill climb for TDKR or any other Batman movie without the Joker to get anywhere near B89 and TDK's admissions. However, the opening weekend admissions number is a lot more reachable. Batman Returns broke the opening weekend admissions record in 1992 and I believe Batman Forever also broke the opening weekend admissions record in 1995, despite the fact that neither film had the Joker. The Joker effect has a bigger impact over the long haul of each film's run in theaters.

 

[BatLobster]

I actually am rooting for TDKR to take the record or at least come close, mostly because I'd love the message that would send to the studios about 3D not being necessary to make those kinds of bucks, and I'd also love to see more action films get on the "shoot in IMAX" bandwagon.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Using the Burton/Schumacher films as precedent is absurd. Irrelevant statistical blather. No offense.

It will probably blow TDK out of the water OW moneywise, so that should make everyone happy.

 

[Art Damage]

I actually am rooting for TDKR to take the record or at least come close, mostly because I'd love the message that would send to the studios about 3D not being necessary to make those kinds of bucks, and I'd also love to see more action films get on the "shoot in IMAX" bandwagon.

Exactly!

 

[Tacit Ronin]

It has a better shot of beating TDK's opening admissions than beating its total admissions in the domestic market. People forget it had a 3.37 multiplier, which is unreal for such a big opener. It sold 22 million tickets on opening weekend and 71 million total. The odds of it beating the 71 million number are slim to none IMHO. Just for some perspective, here is the list of biggest Batman admissions in North America:

TDK - 71 million
B89 - 63 million
Forever - 42 million
Returns - 39 million
Begins - 32 million
Robin - 23 million

Notice the huge gap between the two movies featuring the Joker and the four movies not featuring the Joker? It's a huge uphill climb for TDKR or any other Batman movie without the Joker to get anywhere near B89 and TDK's admissions. However, the opening weekend admissions number is a lot more reachable. Batman Returns broke the opening weekend admissions record in 1992 and I believe Batman Forever also broke the opening weekend admissions record in 1995, despite the fact that neither film had the Joker. The Joker effect has a bigger impact over the long haul of each film's run in theaters.

Do you have any opinion on how many tickets Spider-man, Superman, and the Avengers has sold?

 

[redfirebird2008]

I actually am rooting for TDKR to take the record or at least come close, mostly because I'd love the message that would send to the studios about 3D not being necessary to make those kinds of bucks, and I'd also love to see more action films get on the "shoot in IMAX" bandwagon.

They are on both bandwagons. Star Trek 2 is going to have scenes shot in IMAX and then converted to 3D.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Do you have any opinion on how many tickets Spider-man, Superman, and the Avengers has sold?

Spidey 1 - 69.5 million
Avengers - 69 million (10% 3D boost)
Superman - 57 million

Avengers will likely end up in the same ballpark as TDK around 71 million when its run is over. Might go a little higher or lower, but it will be in a very similar spot.

 

[BatLobster]

They are on both bandwagons. Star Trek 2 is going to have scenes shot in IMAX and then converted to 3D.

I know 3D isn't going away, I just would enjoy the sentiment.

I loathe 3D conversion though. Those dim glasses will defeat the whole purpose of filling that entire IMAX screen with such vibrant images.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Oh man, I shiver at the idea of TDKR breaking The Avengers' OW record, or even grossing 190m. The flamewars would be gargantuan. Of course though (like Redfirebird stated), TDKR could end up just grossing 175m, but I'm fine with that. Nothing is absolutely certain right now.

 

[Anita18]

It has a better shot of beating TDK's opening admissions than beating its total admissions in the domestic market. People forget it had a 3.37 multiplier, which is unreal for such a big opener. It sold 22 million tickets on opening weekend and 71 million total. The odds of it beating the 71 million number are slim to none IMHO. Just for some perspective, here is the list of biggest Batman admissions in North America:

TDK - 71 million
B89 - 63 million
Forever - 42 million
Returns - 39 million
Begins - 32 million
Robin - 23 million

Notice the huge gap between the two movies featuring the Joker and the four movies not featuring the Joker? It's a huge uphill climb for TDKR or any other Batman movie without the Joker to get anywhere near B89 and TDK's admissions. However, the opening weekend admissions number is a lot more reachable. Batman Returns broke the opening weekend admissions record in 1992 and I believe Batman Forever also broke the opening weekend admissions record in 1995, despite the fact that neither film had the Joker. The Joker effect has a bigger impact over the long haul of each film's run in theaters.

I don't. One streak I want TDKR to continue is Nolan's 3.0+ multiplier streak. Every one of his movies has had a multiplier of over 3.0. I don't care if the opening beats Avengers, but I want that multiplier! (Well, okay, if the opening was $150 million, granted, I would be sad. )

IIRC, even Avengers will struggle to a 3.0 multiplier (well, losing 3D screens is likely a big part of it) , but I still believe in Nolan!

 

[Liam_H]

The "flamewars" will just be a spark before the boot of C. Lee comes in to stomp it out.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

The "flamewars" will just be a spark before the boot of C. Lee comes in to stomp it out.

That's true. C. Lee will have to pull an all-nighter though if the predictions come to fruition.