The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread II

[BatLobster]

If it happens, everyone who's happy about it should just post DESHAY DESHAY BASARA BASARA to celebrate Batman's rising. I think that would be suitably cathartic.

Let's rise above pettiness whatever the case may be.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I don't. One streak I want TDKR to continue is Nolan's 3.0+ multiplier streak. Every one of his movies has had a multiplier of over 3.0. I don't care if the opening beats Avengers, but I want that multiplier! (Well, okay, if the opening was $150 million, granted, I would be sad. )

IIRC, even Avengers will struggle to a 3.0 multiplier (well, losing 3D screens is likely a big part of it) , but I still believe in Nolan!

Avengers will get to a 3 for sure. It needs $622m and it's currently just $613,000 shy of $600m. I'm expecting it to finish around $630-635m. Somewhere around $640m seems to be its ceiling. TDK's multiplier would have given it $699m. One thing that boosted TDK's legs was IMAX. It had IMAX all to itself for 3-4 months. Avengers lost some showtimes even during its second weekend because of WB's IMAX contract for Dark Shadows. It lost the rest of its shows because of MIB3.

It will be interesting to see TDKR's run in IMAX. It will have at least 3 months to itself. It will have about 250 more IMAX screens than TDK did. TDK made $60m in IMAX, which boosted its overall gross by around $25m. TDKR could hit $100m in IMAX, which I think Avatar is the only Hollywood movie to pull that off in the domestic market.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Most of those are lie-Max right?

 

[BatLobster]

I'd have to imagine so, yeah. Sadly those still tend to charge the price of a real IMAX, so it all comes out in the wash for WB.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Most of those are lie-Max right?

Yep, by far. Avengers played in 275 LieMAX screens but not in any real IMAX screens. I thought it was bizarre that Wrath of the Titans was still playing at my real IMAX screen during Avengers' opening weekend. Has everything to do with WB's IMAX contract. There will be somewhere around 70-80 real IMAX screens playing TDKR. TDK played in 94 IMAX screens in 2008. At the time, a vast majority were real IMAX and since then they've drastically expanded the number of LieMAX screens across the continent.

 

[Dragon_316ca]

redfirebird, have you read this? http://www.lfexaminer.com/DarkKnightRisesOn1570.htm

 

[redfirebird2008]

redfirebird, have you read this? http://www.lfexaminer.com/DarkKnightRisesOn1570.htm

I hadn't seen it recently, but I did see it a few weeks ago. TDKR's website has not been updated in a couple weeks and it lists 78:

http://www.thedarkknightrises.com/imax.html

So hopefully the 78 number for North America is accurate. That would put its potential total including LieMAX at 353 compared to 94 for TDK.

EDIT: TDKR website actually lists 78 now as well.

 

[TheScarecrow]

http://www.4-traders.com/REGAL-ENTE...r-Conclusion-of-Dark-Knight-Trilogy-14389929/

 

[Dragon_316ca]

http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...night-rises-tracking-20120627,0,2540493.story

"The Dark Knight Rises"is entering the final sprint to the box office just slightly behind "The Avengers," which set an all-time record in May with its $207.4-million domestic debut.

Warner Bros.' third and final Batman movie from director Christopher Nolanmade its first appearance Thursday morning on widely used research surveys known in Hollywood as "tracking" that gauge audience interest in upcoming pictures.

All measures for "The Dark Knight Rises," which will hit theaters July 20, were huge, according to people who have seen the confidential data. The percentage of people in the U.S. and Canada who said they were "definitely interested" in seeing the Batman movie, or listed it as their "first choice" among upcoming releases, was virtually identical to the percentage for "Avengers" three weeks before its debut -- at 64% and 22%, respectively.

When "first choice" is sliced by demographic category, "The Dark Knight Rises" is stronger among men, while "The Avengers" was initially generating more excitement among women.

The only category in which "The Dark Knight Rises" lagged significantly behind "Avengers" is that of "unaided awareness" -- the percentage of people who could list it as an upcoming release without any prompting. The figure for the third Batman movie is 8%, compared with 13% for Avengers at the same point in time.

Read full article at link.

 

[kvz5]

http://www.latimes.com/entertainmen...night-rises-tracking-20120627,0,2540493.story

Read full article at link.

Their points make sense too specially about TDKR having to compete with other summer movies for attention. Also, IMO, TDKR started their marketing a bit later than expected which could explain the smaller "unaided awareness" number.

All in all, things look promising based on that article.

 

[Boom]

I'm kinda surprised about the gender demographic for The Avengers.

 

[kvz5]

About it being a bigger draw for women? Nah, I'm not.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I'm kinda surprised about the gender demographic for The Avengers.

I'm not. RDJ, Hiddleston, Hemsworth, and Evans are all chick magnets.Then again, at the end of the day TDK actually had a more even gender split than Avengers during their opening weekends. TDK was 52% male while Avengers was 60% male. TDK had the Heath Ledger effect. Will be interesting to see what happens with TDKR.

 

[joker1524]

well chris hemsworth is a ladies gem along with chris evans so im not suprised by that

 

[DoomsdayApex]

TDKR is tracking higher than I expected.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I'm not. RDJ, Hiddleston, Hemsworth, and Evans are all chick magnets.Then again, at the end of the day TDK actually had a more even gender split than Avengers during their opening weekends. TDK was 52% male while Avengers was 60% male. TDK had the Heath Ledger effect. Will be interesting to see what happens with TDKR.

Judging from the reactions, Catwoman will happen.

 

[kvz5]

Hiddleston's and Hemsworth's online following is huge. The people I follow on Tumblr are all over them.

I don't think TDKR is lacking some female magnets though with Bale, Hardy, and Joe. Joe is probably the one with the biggest online following though that's on par with Hiddleston and Hemsworth.

 

[BuddhaWasABat]

That article is great, and essentially means that if TDKR was getting a release in China it probably would pass Avengers. Damn you China.

 

[Superhero 101]

Judging from the reactions, Catwoman will happen.

yeah looks like catwoman will steal the show like how Hulk did in Avengers

 

[redfirebird2008]

Hiddleston's and Hemsworth's online following is huge. The people I follow on Tumblr are all over them.

I don't think TDKR is lacking some female magnets though with Bale, Hardy, and Joe. Joe is probably the one with the biggest online following though that's on par with Hiddleston and Hemsworth.

Hardy wearing a mask pretty much undermines his appeal to women for this film though.

 

[kvz5]

Hardy wearing a mask pretty much undermines his appeal to women for this film though.

That's a good point.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Ehhhhh, there's always Stockholm Syndrome.

 

[Notrip]

yeah, hardy wearing a mask and covering up his face hurts for sure on the women demo. My wife is a big hardy fan and was like s*** why would they cover his beautiful face like that and make him shave his hair!

she still wants to see it cuz of JGL and Hathaway(who help in the woman demo for sure). but that is the only reason she will watch it!

Im starting to think TDKR might, just might reach 200 million (d) opening weekend, BUT the marketing has to really let the flood gates open these last 3 weeks for that to happen. As of right now I wouldn't bet on 200M tho, more like 180ish.

 

[kvz5]

Most of my female friends hate Anne with passion. Go figure.

 

[joker1524]

im sorry i dont buy into it that much when it comes to stuff like this...my gf thinks channing tatum is hot but she also says hes a pretty weak actor n wouldnt go see something cuz hes in it unless it looks good....if a movie looks good...people will go see it...despite the actors involved