Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[Loden Greatstorm]

I hope it hits 850.

 

[warriorking]

I hope it hits 850.

$443,893 Thursday totals...
$303,394,120 domestic total...
Worldwide: $835,961,710

 

[Krystal]

$780,000 Friday est.
$304,174,120 domestic total... (est.)
Worldwide: $836,741,710

 

[iEquinox]

Weekend estimate is $2,981,000(-52.5%). That drop is pretty close to Doctor Strange's drop on the same weekend(-51.3%), despite the bigger theater loss. If it can follow DS's exact drops from now on it would end with $315.0M.

It's facing another big theater loss next weekend because there's a lot of new releases. Would be nice if it can keep more theaters than DS did(DS lost over 70% of its theaters that weekend).

OS total is estimated at $353.4M afer Sunday, so it made an estimated $2.83M OS over the last 7 days. DS added $1.6M during the same 7 days and added another $2M OS in those markets after that.

Estimated totals after Sunday:
Domestic: $306,375,120
+ Foreign: $535,400,000
= Worldwide: $841,775,120

Only needs $8.2M more to reach $850M, and we're expecting it to at least get close to that with the remaining domestic gross. Then it'll add a few million more OS as well, so $850M+ worldwide feels like a pretty safe bet.

 

[warriorking]

Weekend estimate is $2,981,000(-52.5%). That drop is pretty close to Doctor Strange's drop on the same weekend(-51.3%), despite the bigger theater loss. If it can follow DS's exact drops from now on it would end with $315.0M.

It's facing another big theater loss next weekend because there's a lot of new releases. Would be nice if it can keep more theaters than DS did(DS lost over 70% of its theaters that weekend).

OS total is estimated at $353.4M afer Sunday, so it made an estimated $2.83M OS over the last 7 days. DS added $1.6M during the same 7 days and added another $2M OS in those markets after that.

Estimated totals after Sunday:
Domestic: $306,375,120
+ Foreign: $535,400,000
= Worldwide: $841,775,120

Only needs $8.2M more to reach $850M, and we're expecting it to at least get close to that with the remaining domestic gross. Then it'll add a few million more OS as well, so $850M+ worldwide feels like a pretty safe bet.

 

[Iceman]

Nice, that would be a good final target for this film.

 

[Mjölnir]

That's certainly a very good success for a Thor film. I just hope that there's room for a sequel in phase 4.

 

[los pollos]

Weekend estimate is $2,981,000(-52.5%). That drop is pretty close to Doctor Strange's drop on the same weekend(-51.3%), despite the bigger theater loss. If it can follow DS's exact drops from now on it would end with $315.0M.

It's facing another big theater loss next weekend because there's a lot of new releases. Would be nice if it can keep more theaters than DS did(DS lost over 70% of its theaters that weekend).

OS total is estimated at $353.4M afer Sunday, so it made an estimated $2.83M OS over the last 7 days. DS added $1.6M during the same 7 days and added another $2M OS in those markets after that.

Estimated totals after Sunday:
Domestic: $306,375,120
+ Foreign: $535,400,000
= Worldwide: $841,775,120

Only needs $8.2M more to reach $850M, and we're expecting it to at least get close to that with the remaining domestic gross. Then it'll add a few million more OS as well, so $850M+ worldwide feels like a pretty safe bet.

Hopefully when the actuals come out tomorrow , those numbers will increase. The overseas actuals have risen over the estimates consistently (last weeks OS actuals was up by $567K, and the week before was up by $1.125M), every dollar counts at this point in it's run.

Right now I give this movie a 80% chance of reaching $850M, it just needs to hold well in spite of heavy theater losses over the next few weeks.

With these numbers, we will definitely see Thor in his own movie again. Chris Hemsworth doesn't have too much else going on, and audiences really liked the direction this movie has taken him.

 

[Iceman]

That's certainly a very good success for a Thor film. I just hope that there's room for a sequel in phase 4.

Yeah, really hope we get a Thor 4. Will be very interesting to see what these 20 planned films are.

 

[HammerDown]

Domestic = 306M
Foreign = 535M
Worldwide = 841M

Steady steps. Let's hit that 850M mark.

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...December 10, 2017 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $301,136,438 / $833,704,028


BO update...December 17, 2017 - sunday estimated

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $306,375,120 / $841,775,120

$23 Million to pass Guardians 2...

 

[warriorking]

BO update...December 10, 2017 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $301,136,438 / $833,704,028


BO update...December 17, 2017 - sunday estimated

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $306,375,120 / $841,775,120

$23 Million to pass Guardians 2...

Probably no more than 10 to 12 Million Max left in its tank....

 

[Finarfiniel]

Probably no more than 10 to 12 Million Max left in its tank....

Yeah, there's no way it's overtaking Guardians 2 now, it will come fairly close though which is damn impressive when you consider that Guardians 2 was coming off the back of a massively popular, breakout first film, and in contrast Ragnarok was coming off the back of (arguably, of course) one of the MCU's weakest entries. In fact, Ragnarok will probably end up making a fairly equivalent amount of profit as Guardians, considering it's budget was apparently $20 million less ($180 mil compared to Guardian's $200 mil).

I'm so proud of how well this film has done, both critically and financially. It vindicates those of us that always had a great feeling about it. t:

 

[Donald Thomas]

Domestic = 306M
Foreign = 535M
Worldwide = 841M

Steady steps. Let's hit that 850M mark.

Aloha,
Yes, you know we love those round numbers. Very happy to see Thor do this well.
spidey rules

 

[Power Cosmic]

Ha. $850M is a lock!

 

[Krystal]

Actuals were better!

$3,133,416 -- weekend

$306,527,536 -- total dom

$841,953,964 -- WW

 

[Power Cosmic]

Actuals were better!

$3,133,416 -- weekend

$306,527,536 -- total dom

$841,953,964 -- WW

That's great! A drop of only 50%!

 

[Iceman]

Finally winding down now with $850m left as the final target. Awesome job. The 3 MCU films this year had a similar WW gross.

 

[warriorking]

$440,793- Monday
$306,968,329- Domestic
$842,394,757- WW
We should be around 844 Million Going into the Xmas weekend...
Should Limp to 850 Million a little before New Years...

 

[Krystal]

Well if you are going to collapse over the finish line -- $850 million is not a bad line to cross.

GotG2 $863
SM:H $880
T:R $850

$2.593 BILLION

 

[HammerDown]

With a better release date i could have seen Thor Ragnarok doing even better at the box office.

 

[mustapantteri]

I'm a bit sad it's the lowest grossing MCU film this year. It deserves to gross more than the other two imo.

 

[honestbharani]

Yeah #1 MCU movie this year for me.

 

[warriorking]

$598,002 Tuesday Totals
$307,566,331-Domestic
$842,992,759-WW

 

[Krystal]

Tuesday -- day 47 -- $598,002 Dom $307,566,331