Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[Lilbaz]

Thursday $296,105

$847 worldwide now.

If it could make $1 million Friday-Monday it would be at $311 and $848.

That would mean it had to make only 2 million for the rest of it's domestic run to reach $850.

When it reaches $311 domestic it will have passed MOS on the adjusted domestic list

T:R will end up at 26th on the all-time domestic adjusted list -- of super hero movies.

For context the top 5 on the adjusted list of super-hero movies are....

Avengers --------$686
Dark Knight ---- $664
Spider-Man -----$620
Batman '89 ---- $562
Spider-Man 2 ---$537

That's a rather sobering list. Will IW even make $686?

Besides Avengers -- all those CBMs came out 2008 and earlier

More very sobering numbers.....

Adjusted for inflation Batman Forever made $377m

That is higher than every MCU movie except 6 (Av, Av2, IM3, CA3, IM1 and GG2.)

So clearly there was a hunger for CBMs back in the day that now only exists for the "event" movies and the occasional mega-hit like WW.

The studios better keep those budgets in check because people aren't going nuts for every one of the many CBMs -- even if they are well made.

If iw can't even make $686 it will be the biggest flop in cinema history.

 

[Krystal]

If iw can't even make $686 it will be the biggest flop in cinema history.

You realize I was talking domestic, right?

 

[metaphysician]

I kind of doubt Infinity War will match Avengers' domestic numbers, though it will probably come close and do better than AoU. Internationally, though, I'm sure it will expand, so it will exceed Avengers WW gross.

Avengers 4, whatever it is called, is the one to really look at for blowing the doors open.

 

[warriorking]

Friday: $161,000
Domestic: $312,105,786
WW: $849,405,786
Will probably hit $850 Million on Tuesday...

 

[HammerDown]

And apparently Thor Ragnarok just outgrossed Justice League in their daily comparison. Friday estimates:
TR - 161.000
JL - 160.000

 

[Krystal]

And JL is on a lot more screens.

 

[HammerDown]

Domestic = 312.4M
Foreign = 537.3M
Worldwide = 849.7M

 

[Iceman]

Soooo close!

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...December 24, 2017 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $309,104,758 / $844,531,186


BO update...January 7, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $312,478,786 / $849,795,134

 

[Warlock]

Friday: $161,000
Domestic: $312,105,786
WW: $849,405,786
Will probably hit $850 Million on Tuesday...

It looks like Tuesday, spot on. Unless the foreign totals from last week are updated first.

 

[Power Cosmic]

So, we're finally reaching that landmark!

 

[warriorking]

$221,214 To Go...

 

[InCali]

If iw can't even make $686 it will be the biggest flop in cinema history.

You realize I was talking domestic, right?

Sometimes I find myself befuddled.......the human race is so varied.....t:

 

[Finarfiniel]

Sometimes I find myself befuddled.......the human race is so varied.....t:

So close to $850 mil! t:

I really wanted to go see it one more time but it's not playing anywhere near me now. I was seriously considering getting on a train to London where it is still playing in some venues because damn I love this movie, but I guess I'll just wait the two long months until the home release...

 

[Lilbaz]

You realize I was talking domestic, right?

Yes but $686 is not even a thousand.

 

[Power Cosmic]

$850M, baby!

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $312,459,726 36.7%
+ Foreign: $537,812,843 63.3%
= Worldwide: $850,272,569

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=marvel2017.htm

 

[HammerDown]

850M!

 

[BigThor]

850M!

The perfect gif for the occassion woooohoooo!

Also this is the first Thor film to reach the 50 million mark in it's total gross, Thor 1 and 2 stopped at the 49 and 44 million marks. Their totals being 449 million WW and 644 million WW respectively.

 

[Power Cosmic]

And there are a couple more dollars to come.

 

[RoryTate]

Congrats on 850M! That's a huge milestone and very well deserved for this movie!

 

[HammerDown]

850M is a massive hit. It made 4 and half times their budget of 180M.
It grossed 200M more than the previous movie. It's one of the most profitable MCU movies overseas, aside from the big team up movies like Avengers, AOU and basically CA: Civil War. Take those out of the equation and it's number 3, only behind Iron Man 3 and right behind SM: Homecoming. As i had said before Thor is a big draw internationally.

Naturally it's a draw in Europe also because of it's mythological roots, familiarity of the audience to a certain degree... Then it also got a massive boost from China where it turned in a very strong 112M. And even more significant was the domestic increase of over 100M in comparison with the previous installment.

Every Thor movie has increased around 200M.

Thor - 449M
Thor: TDW - 644
Thor Ragnarok - 850

 

[InCali]

850M is a massive hit. It made 4 and half times their budget of 180M.
It grossed 200M more than the previous movie. It's one of the most profitable movies overseas, aside from the big team up movies like Avengers, AOU and basically CA: Civil War. Take those out of the equation and it's number 3, only behind Iron Man 3 and right behind SM: Homecoming. As i had said before Thor is a big draw internationally.

Naturally it's a draw in Europe also because of it's mythological roots, familiarity of the audience to a certain degree... Then it also got a massive boost from China where it turned in a very strong 112M. And even more significant was the domestic increase of over 100M in comparison with the previous installment.

Every Thor movie has increased around 200M.

Thor - 449M
Thor: TDW - 644
Thor Ragnarok - 850

Thor IV - 1B???

 

[Iceman]

It finally did it!!!! Awesome. Congrats to a great Thor film.

 

[HammerDown]

Thor IV - 1B???

I wouldn't go that far. I would say between 800 to 900M would be the sweet spot for a Thor 4. It would also depend on the talent attached, the story, characters, villains, overall look and critical reception to produce an even better return. There's certainly room for improvement in terms of how and where the story is told infusing it with a better grip on the emotional side of things... It's actually beneficial having a range of things in which they could build upon and improve.

Personally i feel that a King Thor movie would be a strong candidate for the ultimate Thor movie. Having and old, grizzled and battered Thor return to battle for one last time against Silver Surfer and or Galactus would be a dream. Now that would be the a great path to take the character into... even though it could bring some closure to his overall story. I guess Marvel could spin it in several ways if they wanted to.

If they wanted to go out with a bang then that would be the way to do it. Or they can patch up another story for Thor 4 and make Thor 5 as a "swan song" for and older Chris Hemsworth wich would fit perfectly with the old King Thor look and wrap with a nice bow a Taika trilogy. t:

 

[InCali]

I wouldn't go that far. I would say between 800 to 900M would be the sweet spot for a Thor 4. It would also depend on the talent attached, the story, characters, villains, overall look and critical reception to produce an even better return. There's certainly room for improvement in terms of how and where the story is told infusing it with a better grip on the emotional side of things... It's actually beneficial having a range of things in which they could build upon and improve.

Personally i feel that a King Thor movie would be a strong candidate for the ultimate Thor movie. Having and old, grizzled and battered Thor return to battle for one last time against Silver Surfer and or Galactus would be a dream. Now that would be the a great path to take the character into... even though it could bring some closure to his overall story. I guess Marvel could spin it in several ways if they wanted to.

If they wanted to go out with a bang then that would be the way to do it. Or they can patch up another story for Thor 4 and make Thor 5 as a "swan song" for and older Chris Hemsworth wich would fit perfectly with the old King Thor look and wrap with a nice bow a Taika trilogy. t:

That was a joke BTW. I think, barring some sort of breakout, 900M is about the max for a Thor movie.