Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

As a subscriber to this thread, may I kindly suggest that these off-topic Natalie Portman posts continue, if they need to, on the official Natalie Portman thread for this film:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=498277

 

Fair enough. My response to @RoryTate is in that thread.

 

Despite the false alarm with wrong estimates last Friday, Wednesday the 10th was the first day that T:R made more $ than JL, despite being released 2 weeks earlier, and currently in less theaters (325/518).

T:R will be left in 242 theaters next week, compared to DS which was only in 162 at this time. T:R is also moving ahead of JL in number of theaters tomorrow, as JL is moving down to only 226.

 

It also took more than JL on Thursday, almost certain to outdo it this weekend then. I wonder how much is left in the tank domestic/OS?

 

Domestic is easy to gauge, comparing it to DS from last year. DS made $1.6M more after day 70, T:R has consistently beaten DS, so T:R has $2-2.5M left. It needs $2.4M to reach $315M, so there is still that chance. Trouble is, we won't know for at least a month, so it's like watching grass grow.

OS is virtually done, less than $0.5M left.

 

Weekend Totals:

Domestic: $313,012,320 36.8%
+ Foreign: $537,812,843 63.2%
= Worldwide: $850,825,163

 

BO update...January 7, 2018 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $312,478,786 / $849,795,134


BO update...January 14, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $313,012,320 / $850,825,163

 

Domestic: $313,447,531 36.8%
+ Foreign: $538,062,890 63.2%
= Worldwide: $851,510,421

 

BO update...January 14, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $313,012,320 / $850,825,163


BO update...January 28, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $313,696,009 / $851,904,921

 

Domestic: $313,708,483 36.8%
+ Foreign: $538,635,558 63.2%
= Worldwide: $852,344,041

 

So can it reach $315m when it is 1,291,000 off and making $13,000 a day?

Because I was assured it would.

 

I never saw anyone guarantee $315M, but I remember you saying "Impossible!" to the suggestion. Fact is, it is still on pace to do it. Doctor Strange made $1M after this point last year, and T:R has been outpacing it very handily, well above the 30% better it would need to do (91% better today, for example).

We should know in a couple weeks if it still has a strong shot at it, because this Friday T:R goes into the discount theaters and will get a big boost, just as Doctor Strange did last year. I'm just not sure if it can stay 30% better than Doctor Strange once it's at the discount theaters. DS made over $550K over the following 2 weeks. So T:R probably needs to make $750K over these next 2 weeks to stay on pace. If I had to bet, I would say it will do it. If it doesn't make it to $315M, it will be extremely close.

 

19 More days and my Digital copy goes live..
Then I can watch it as much as I want...t:

Wish I would have purchased it when it first become available ..
They had a screw up and you could download and watch it immediately..
They quickly fixed the mistake so I missed out...

 

BO update...January 28, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $313,696,009 / $851,904,921


BO update...February 4, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $314,000,273 / $852,635,831

 

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?p=35814901&highlight=#post35814901

I was really close but even then, Ragnarok was able to beat my optimistic projection. That's really impressive. The final total is absolutely amazing.

 

Domestic: $314,306,225 36.8%
+ Foreign: $538,711,803 63.2%
= Worldwide: $853,018,028

 

Fantastic run. And more the deserved!

 

BO update...February 4, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $314,000,273 / $852,635,831


BO update...February 18, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $314,589,124 / $853,408,372


A good run indeed!

 

Watching my digital release as I type...t:

 

Within 10 million of GOTG 2, sweet.

 

Still a couple more weeks before I can own the BR/DVD/Digital version. Once I get it, I'm starting my MCU marathon to prepare for IW.

 

Shame BP won’t be ready on blu-ray by then. Guess we’ll have to finish the last leg of the marathon in he cinema too in a double-Header with IW.

 

T:R still has roughly $200K left in the domestic tank, but wherever it winds up exactly, it will be finishing with a 2.57 multiplier.

As you may expect, this is easily the best multiplier result for any of the 3 MCU trilogy finales (IM3 - 2.35, CA:CW - 2.28).

This multiplier also bests 3 of the 5 MCU 1st sequels (TDW - 2.4, AoU - 2.4, IM2 - 2.44), as well as The Incredible Hulk (2.45).

 

I had no idea that Ragnarok had the best multiplier out of all the MCU threequels, that's awesome. t: It makes sense though, CW and IM3 may have opened bigger, but they were much more front loaded and Ragnarok ended up having better legs.

 

I think it being released in late October/early November helped since there was much less competition (especially with JL bombing) and it had Thanksgiving weekend to help it.