Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[warriorking]

With the Infinity trailer drop we may see a tiny spike during the weekend totals...
Every penny counts...

 

[RoryTate]

Some people might be interested to see why Thor is suddenly wearing an eye patch, but I doubt it will mean much of a box office increase.

The IW trailer was much more focused on generating buzz for Black Panther. There was a very strong focus on Wakanda in it, since Black Panther is a new IP that Marvel definitely wants to make profitable.

 

[ultradog]

Looks like we'll have to be happy with $300m and not $320.

I'm sure Disney is.

I'd still say $310M is very doable, maybe $315M and even a stretch to $320M at the moment.

It's only about $3M behind Homecoming at this point. It will fall back more than that, but not tremendously.

It's less than $2M behind Iron Man 2 at this point. I would expect it to have better legs than that one, so should match it, at least.

Others have said if it matches Dr. Strange drops, it will reach $310M or so. It might look like it's not quite matching it at the moment, but long term I expect it to do better than Dr. Strange legs. Maybe I'm just being optimistic, but it's more of a fun family film, which usually do well long term. The failure of JL will also help. T:R will probably be in theaters until after Black Panther opens. I doubt JL will last that long. The IW trailer isn't going to hurt things either

 

[Krystal]

By the end of Thursday at the latest, it will pass Pirates 5 for 8th place worldwide for the year.

Then a couple more weeks to pass Wonder Woman for 7th.

 

[TheVileOne]

$300 million is pretty insane for a Thor movie. I never imagined that 7 years ago. Even after Iron Man did really well, after Incredible Hulk, I was skeptical that Thor could be a big moneymaker for Marvel.

You can't deny that Marvel Studios has done a tremendous job in making the lesser known characters who weren't big as names or brands beforehand into big profitable characters.

 

[warriorking]

If they passed out Oscars for movie trailers Marvel would win hands down...
They really bring their A game ....

 

[iEquinox]

Disney Crosses $5B Global Box Office As ‘Thor: Ragnarok’ Hammers $800M WW

On Wednesday, The Walt Disney Studios rocked across the $5B mark in worldwide receipts — for the third year in a row. That makes The Mouse the first, and only, studio to have reached the threshold three times. The global total from January 1-November 29, 2017, is $5,003.1M. Breaking that down, it’s $1,763.3M domestically and $3,239.8M at the international box office.

The milestone comes as current Marvel smash Thor: Ragnarok is expected to surpass $800M globally today. Of the 17 films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Thor 3 is the 7th to reach the mark, and the 3rd this year.

It’s fair to say Disney is having a fantastic year — and all ahead of the impending release of Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Four of the top nine highest grossing films of 2017 are from the studio.

They include Beauty and the Beast ($1.26B WW/$504.0M domestic/$759.7M intl). The Bill Condon-directed pic is the No. 1 movie of the year domestically, and No. 4 offshore. It’s also the No. 8 film ever domestically and No. 10 overseas.

Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 ($863.6M WW/$389.8M domestic/$473.8M intl) is the No. 3 movie of 2017 domestic and No. 6 globally.

Also from Marvel, the currently-playing Thor: Ragnarok ($798.4M WW/$280.6M domestic/$517.8M intl) is the No. 6 title of the year domestically and No. 8 worldwide.

And, Disney’s Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales ($794.8M WW/$172.6M domestic/$622.2M intl) is No. 5 internationally and No. 9 global.

Dis has other stablemates that made box office waves this year including Pixar’s Cars 3 ($383.5M global); Lucasfilm’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($309.3M of its $1.05B global gross during 2017); and Walt Disney Animation Studios’ Moana ($252.0M of its $643.3M global gross during 2017).

Then there’s Pixar’s Coco which is currently at $178.9M global after breaking new ground in Mexico as the highest-grossing movie ever, and charming China (a tough Pixar market) in its open this past weekend.

There will be more to come as The Last Jedi begins offshore rollout on December 13.

http://deadline.com/2017/11/disney-...-office-thor-ragnarok-800-million-1202217482/

 

[warriorking]

http://deadline.com/2017/11/disney-...-office-thor-ragnarok-800-million-1202217482/

 

[HammerDown]

Domestic = 280M
Foreign = 518M
Worldwide = 798M

We're almost there to that wonderful 800M mark.

 

[ultradog]

After the worst increase in the top 9 on Tuesday, T:R goes to the best drop in the top 6 on Wednesday. And back to 4th place. I guess Tuesday was just a blip. Or it could be a boost from the IW trailer

4 (5) Thor: Ragnarok Walt Disney $919,744 -20% 3,281 $280 $280,598,766 27

 

[warriorking]

So.... we should be around 290 or so by Monday...
And perhaps about 815 Million WW............................................

 

[Surfer]

Thor Ragnarok is doing amazing and it deserves it. What amazes me though is the MCU franchise. World Wide it has done 13.456 Billion over 17 movies and it has averaged 791.5 Million world wide per movie. The MCU is just pure gold.

Surfer

 

[iEquinox]

Holding on to its theaters very well this weekend, because there isn't a single new wide release this week. It's losing 133(-4.1%) theaters on Friday so it'll still have 3,148 left.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2017&wk=48&p=.htm

Next weekend there's also only one new wide release. Looks like no one wanted to open their movie with Star Wars right around the corner. When Star Wars opens, Ragnarok(and pretty much every wide release) is going to take a bigger hit in theater count. Right before Christmas there's a lot of new wide releases, so Ragnarok's theater count will take a big hit then too.

Doctor Strange lost about 30% of its theaters going up against Rogue One, and then lost over 70% again the week after with the barrage of new releases. Would be nice if Ragnarok can hold on to its theaters better, but it'll probably do something similar to Doctor Strange, because competition is similar.

 

[Surfer]

Holding on to its theaters very well this weekend, because there isn't a single new wide release this week. It's losing 133(-4.1%) theaters on Friday so it'll still have 3,148 left.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2017&wk=48&p=.htm

Next weekend there's also only one new wide release. Looks like no one wanted to open their movie with Star Wars right around the corner. When Star Wars opens, Ragnarok(and pretty much every wide release) is going to take a bigger hit in theater count. Right before Christmas there's a lot of new wide releases, so Ragnarok's theater count will take a big hit then too.

Doctor Strange lost about 30% of its theaters going up against Rogue One, and then lost over 70% again the week after with the barrage of new releases. Would be nice if Ragnarok can hold on to its theaters better, but it'll probably do something similar to Doctor Strange, because competition is similar.

Well at least it will not have to deal with much new competition over the next 2 weeks. But yeah once Star Wars comes out everything is going to take a large hit.

Surfer

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

I hope it hits $850 million.

 

[warriorking]

$1,148,833
Thursday Box office
Total Domestic $281,747,599
Should pull in another 8-10 Million for the weekend...

 

[iEquinox]

$1,148,833
Thursday Box office

Very big number for Thursday, a 24.9% increase from Wednesday, almost as big as discount Tuesday this week. Most movies increased on Thursday, probably because this is one of the rare weekends where there's not a single new wide release coming out.

But Thor did have a significantly bigger increase than the other movies, after it already had a great Wednesday hold as well. Both the Wednesday and Thursday holds were the best out of all movies playing in 1,000+ theaters(by a significant margin), so it looks like the Infinity War trailer really did get some more people to watch/rewatch Ragnarok.

 

[RoryTate]

$1.1M is a nice +25% Thursday uptick for Ragnarok (compared to the other top 5 films at least that stayed stagnant). Could be an indicator of a slightly better than expected weekend. I'm really hoping it can hit $300M DOM by next Friday or Saturday.

 

[warriorking]

It has only this weekend and next to make any real money before the Star Wars Tidal Wave arrives..
After that any Million dollar days will be long gone...

 

[ultradog]

so it looks like the Infinity War trailer really did get some more people to watch/rewatch Ragnarok.

I can see no other explanation. What a great marketing advantage the MCU has, putting out 2-3 films a year. Not only does each movie build interest for the next one, now the next one can draw interest back to the current one! This is why I expect T:R to have better legs than Doctor Strange, and do better than $310.

 

[ultradog]

It has only this weekend and next to make any real money before the Star Wars Tidal Wave arrives..
After that any Million dollar days will be long gone...

Those half million and quarter million days will add up too though. Doctor Strange made $21M domestic last December. With the IW trailer boost, and the fact that this is more of a family fun movie than Doctor Strange, I think T:R will make at least $30M, to bring it to $310M or better, then add a few million more in January and February.

 

[warriorking]

Those half million and quarter million days will add up too though. Doctor Strange made $21M domestic last December. With the IW trailer boost, and the fact that this is more of a family fun movie than Doctor Strange, I think T:R will make at least $30M, to bring it to $310M or better, then add a few million more in January and February.

 

[HammerDown]

Very big number for Thursday, a 24.9% increase from Wednesday, almost as big as discount Tuesday this week. Most movies increased on Thursday, probably because this is one of the rare weekends where there's not a single new wide release coming out.

But Thor did have a significantly bigger increase than the other movies, after it already had a great Wednesday hold as well. Both the Wednesday and Thursday holds were the best out of all movies playing in 1,000+ theaters(by a significant margin), so it looks like the Infinity War trailer really did get some more people to watch/rewatch Ragnarok.

Yep i think it was a smart marketing move from Marvel. The IW trailer broke records by the amount of people that saw it and by having Thor showing up without an eye, Loki giving away the Tesseract and Thor meeting up with the Guardians might have fed the apetite for people to watch the movie some even for the first time and others for second and third times...

I think the weekend may even present some slightly better numbers than what was to be expected on it's 5th weekend.

 

[Surfer]

Yep i think it was a smart marketing move from Marvel. The IW trailer broke records by the amount of people that saw it and by having Thor showing up without an eye, Loki giving away the Tesseract and Thor meeting up with the Guardians might have fed the apetite for people to watch the movie some even for the first time and others for second and third times...

I think the weekend may even present some slightly better numbers than what was to be expected on it's 5th weekend.

Was also thinking they showcased the Wakanda battle in Infinity War to help promote people seeing Black Panther. So, yeah there was some good additional advertising done for Thor Ragnarok and Black Panther while of course advertising Infinity War itself.

Marvel knows how to make the most out of their trailers, that's for sure.

Surfer

 

[iEquinox]

Friday Estimate:

Thor: Ragnarok grossed an estimated $2.69M on Friday. 29-Day total stands at $284.43M.

https://***********/BORReport/status/936977301195014144

Very good Friday number. The question is now whether the trailer boost will be more of a small spike or if it'll have a more drawn out effect. If it's more short-lived, you'd expect the Saturday increase to be lower than usual. Doctor Strange had a 73% Saturday increase on the same weekend. Let's see how close Ragnarok gets to that.

It has also ended its run in China today with a final total of about $112M.