Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[warriorking]

Theatrical Performance
Domestic Box Office $253,213,394 Details
International Box Office $490,307,580 Details
Worldwide Box Office $743,520,974

Amazing that JL has yet to reach TR"s opening Box office domestic number after more than 5 days...

 

[iEquinox]

Theatrical Performance
Domestic Box Office $253,213,394 Details
International Box Office $490,307,580 Details
Worldwide Box Office $743,520,974

That's the-numbers.com's international number, which, as usual, is a bit off.
Boxofficemojo has more accurate international numbers. Ragnarok had $491,936,249 OS after Sunday.

So, the most recent numbers are:
Domestic: $253,213,394 <-- After Tuesday
+ Foreign: $491,936,249 <--After Sunday
= Worldwide: $745,149,643

 

[Donald Thomas]

That's the-numbers.com's international number, which, as usual, is a bit off.
Boxofficemojo has more accurate international numbers. Ragnarok had $491,936,249 OS after Sunday.

So, the most recent numbers are:
Domestic: $253,213,394 <-- After Tuesday
+ Foreign: $491,936,249 <--After Sunday
= Worldwide: $745,149,643

Aloha,
Those are FANTASTIC numbers for Thor. Just goes to show you, both Iron Man and Thor are not super hot comic books but they have been super hot in the movies.
Spidey rules

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...November 21, 2017 - tuesday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $253,213,394 / $745,149,643

 

[Krystal]

What's the outlook for tomorrow? How does a Wednesday before Thanksgiving stack up against the Tuesday numbers?

 

[warriorking]

Conservatively I would guess TR tops out at around 275 Million or more domestically by the end of the weekend.

 

[russian gal]

Deadline projection

Disney Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok is looking at a $4M Wednesday, 3-day $17.8M, 5-day $25M — still money out of Justice League‘s pocket. Running cume by Sunday looks to be $278.2M.

 

[mustapantteri]

Looking good.

 

[iEquinox]

Thor: Ragnarok grossed an estimated $3.99M on Wednesday. 20-Day total stands at $257.20M.

https://***********/BORReport/status/933723528431419393

If it follows Doctor Strange's exact day to day drops up until Sunday, it would get:
5-day weekend: $25.0M
3-day weekend: $17.6M(-18.9%)

Hope it can get those numbers, 18.9% drop would be really good, better than both Thor: The Dark World(-21.9%), and Doctor Strange(-22.7%). If it goes a bit lower and gets a drop more similar to those two, it would still be very good.

 

[HammerDown]

Looking very good.
Adding the total international for the hole week plus the estimated 278M on Sunday should put the movie very close to that 800M mark.

 

[Surfer]

So with it being close to 800 Mil by this Sunday, I would think we are expecting it to surpass 900 Mil by the end of it's run, but I would think a Billion might be out of reach. Anyone that knows the box office well have any insight on what we might expect?

Thanks!

Surfer

 

[iEquinox]

So with it being close to 800 Mil by this Sunday, I would think we are expecting it to surpass 900 Mil by the end of it's run, but I would think a Billion might be out of reach. Anyone that knows the box office well have any insight on what we might expect?

Thanks!

Surfer

$900M is out of reach.

Ragnarok made $24.75M OS last weekend. Comparisons for OS numbers:
Doctor Strange had a $26.42M OS weekend and added another $38.2M in those markets.
GotG2 had a $28.07M OS weekend and added another $42.3M.

So $40M more OS after last Sunday seems like a good target based on those comparisons. However, compared to Doctor Strange, Ragnarok has a much smaller share of China gross this weekend(and China is always very frontloaded), so let's say Ragnarok gets another $50M OS instead.

That would get Ragnarok to a final OS total of about $540M. With that it would need to roughly match Doctor Strange's domestic late legs if it wants to reach $850M WW.

So $850M should be a nice target.

 

[RoryTate]

No, $900 million isn't expected. The expectation right now is that Thor ends up somewhere at the higher end of $800 million, probably 860-880 or so.

900 is still possible though, and this weekend does have the potential of shaking things up, being a long weekend, and the chance that JL underperforms significantly and people go to see Thor instead. So this is kind of the tipping point for whether it can hit 900 or not. If it drops below $20 million for the 3-day domestic total this weekend, then 900 million is out of reach. However, if it holds or slightly increases its previous weekend total (say by doing $24-28m) unexpectedly, then 900 million is back on the table. The overseas number have to follow suit of course, and give the movie a strong second wind.

There have only been some slight trends in that direction that I've seen, and the predictions from industry professionals have admittedly been fairly standard. The movie is generally liked and has good buzz, but it's likely not going to be a standout like Avengers or WW and have people doing double takes at its multiplier. The only unpredictable factor at the moment is the significant drama of Justice League. That could shake things up.

 

[Surfer]

Okay thanks for letting me know. I would have thought with it being only 22 days into it's run that 900 Mil would have been a lock, but I guess it is hard for me to compare because it launched overseas earlier than that, and places like China are extremely front loaded. Is there any Foreign market where it has not opened yet? Just curious.

Thanks!

Surfer

 

[russian gal]

AFAIK its released everywhere

too bad I missed the subtitled version in my city. Its no longer listed on the schedule & my closest theater only has 2 showings of TR now


Thankfully in the NA movies are staying in theaters much longer


from some BOT member

The theater I went to tonight had scheduled Justice League for the biggest screen. Tonight, JL was put in the shoebox and Ragnarok took the big screen.

So JL showings given to TR is the real thing !!

per Rth TR had the best drop of top 5 (if Im not mistaken!!)!
-12% & 3.5 mil

 

[warriorking]

$257,200,394 as of Thanksgiving day..
Should easily cross the 260 Million mark when Thursday's numbers roll in later today...

 

[iEquinox]

$3,477,000 is the Thursday estimate. Domestic total is up to $260,677,394 after 21 days:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2017-11-23&track=marvel2017.htm

So Wednesday+Thursday is $7,464,000. Hoping for roughly $17.5M for the 3-day weekend for about $25M for the 5-day.

 

[warriorking]

Great news..
300 Million getting closer by the day...
We should be really close by December 3rd...

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$3,477,000 is the Thursday estimate. Domestic total is up to $260,677,394 after 21 days:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2017-11-23&track=marvel2017.htm

So Wednesday+Thursday is $7,464,000. Hoping for roughly $17.5M for the 3-day weekend for about $25M for the 5-day.

Deadline is estimating 18.4 for FSS, so it looks like you get your wish.

http://deadline.com/2017/11/coco-justice-league-wonder-thanksgiving-box-office-1202213755/

 

[HammerDown]

TR has grossed 110.5M in China already. Incredible box office over there.

 

[Iceman]

$750m up, nice!

 

[iEquinox]

Great news..
300 Million getting closer by the day...
We should be really close by December 3rd...

December 3rd is a bit too soon. Don't forget that the Thanksgiving boost means it's going to drop more next week(over 50% for the weekend and over 65% for the next set of weekdays)

Let's say it gets $16.5M this weekend. Following Doctor Strange after that would mean it passes the $300M mark on December 17th.
Deadline is going higher, they're projecting $18.4M. Using that, Doctor Strange's drops would get it to the $300M mark on December 11th(not expecting this high though)

But yeah, with these numbers it feels like it's safe to say $300M is 100% locked. Looks like it'll get there about 3 weeks from now. Or 2 weeks if deadline turns out to be right.

Deadline is estimating 18.4 for FSS, so it looks like you get your wish.

http://deadline.com/2017/11/coco-justice-league-wonder-thanksgiving-box-office-1202213755/

Deadline is crazy though. Not putting too much stock in their early predictions.

 

[iEquinox]

Noticed deadline has now adjusted their number down to $16.5M.

4). Thor: Ragnarok (DIS), 3,281 theaters (-779) / $4M Wed./$3.5M Thur/ $6.5M Fri/ 3-day cume: $16.5M (-24%) / 5-day: $24.1M/Total cume: $277.2M / Wk 4

http://deadline.com/2017/11/coco-justice-league-wonder-thanksgiving-box-office-1202213755/

Should have the official Friday estimate in about one hour.

 

[iEquinox]

Official Friday estimate is $6.64M:

Thor: Ragnarok grossed an estimated $6.64M on Friday. 22-Day total stands at $267.32M.

https://***********/BORReport/status/934456074823917578

With Doctor Strange's Sat+Sun drops that would lead to a $16.64M weekend(23.2% drop).

 

[HammerDown]

Domestic = 267M
Foreign = 492M
Worldwide = 759M

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel2017.htm