Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[Iceman]

The BOM page is going to look so much better when the big 300 is up.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

What a great run.

 

[iEquinox]

$1,676,000 is the Friday estimate. Should get a little over $6M for the weekend. Good hold but not quite as good as Doctor Strange. Still heading for roughly $315M domestic if everything goes as expected.

 

[warriorking]

$1,676,000 is the Friday estimate. Should get a little over $6M for the weekend. Good hold but not quite as good as Doctor Strange. Still heading for roughly $315M domestic if everything goes as expected.

It has now passed Wonder Women...

Domestic: $296,541,064 36.0%
+ Foreign: $526,125,705 64.0%
= Worldwide: $822,666,769

 

[RoryTate]

And now the announcement that it has passed $300M domestic! What an eventful weekend for this movie.

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...December 3, 2017 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $291,633,535 / $817,759,240


BO update...December 10, 2017 - sunday/rough estimate

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $301,200,000 / $833,200,000

 

[Iceman]

Awesome!! Looks so good with the big number up

 

[HammerDown]

Domestic = 301M
Foreign = 532M
Worldwide = 833M

 

[ironman_rick]

wow....$833M

Enough fuel for $850M ?

 

[InCali]

wow....$833M

Enough fuel for $850M ?

Yup. I'd say so.

 

[los pollos]

wow....$833M

Enough fuel for $850M ?

I predicted $840-842M, but depending on how it holds against SW, and how many theaters it retains over the next couple weeks, it is possible for it to reach $850M.

Thor did really well overseas, it's at $532M internationally, with a couple million dollars more to go. Only 7 movies crossed the $500M threshold internationally in 2017 so far, and Spider-Man Homecoming and Thor Ragnarok are the only two movies in the superhero genre among those 7. Marvel Studios is pretty damn impressive.

 

[Finarfiniel]

Thor did really well overseas, it's at $532M internationally, with a couple million dollars more to go. Only 7 movies crossed the $500M threshold internationally in 2017 so far, and Spider-Man Homecoming and Thor Ragnarok are the only two movies in the superhero genre among those 7. Marvel Studios is pretty damn impressive.

I didn't realise that, I know that both WW and GotG 2 were skewed more heavily towards domestic than overseas, whereas Spidey and Ragnarok seem to be the other way around. As a Brit, that makes me happy. Ragnarok has definitely gone over really well over here, the incredibly enthusiastic audience response I've seen at each of my 6 screenings is enough to convince me of that. t:

 

[los pollos]

I didn't realise that, I know that both WW and GotG 2 were skewed more heavily towards domestic than overseas, whereas Spidey and Ragnarok seem to be the other way around. As a Brit, that makes me happy. Ragnarok has definitely gone over really well over here, the incredibly enthusiastic audience response I've seen at each of my 6 screenings is enough to convince me of that. t:

Yes, Thor had a lot more appeal internationally compared to it's domestic performance. I wonder how TLJ will do since Star Wars international BO power is lacking in Asian markets.

Top 10 2017 International grosses according to Box Office Mojo (in the millions)

1- The Fate of the Furious $1,010.0
2- Wolf Warrior 2 $867.6
3- Despicable Me 3 $767.8
4- Beauty and the Beast $759.5
5- Pirates of the Caribbean $622.2
6- Spider-Man: Homecoming $546.0
7- Thor: Ragnarok $532.0
8- Transformers: The Last Knight $475.3
9- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $473.8
10- Wonder Woman $409.2

The difference between Spidey/Thor and Wonder Woman internationally is $136.8M/$122.8M.

 

[m2k]

Dang. How did Fastn Furious become such a international phenomenon?! I've only seen the first two in theaters. Never did I ever imagine it would become this juggernaut! Lol.

If anything, I thought something like the Die Hard franchise, or the like, would gain traction.. not a movie that began about riced-out cars, illegal racing crossed with 21 Jump Street. Lol.

 

[samsnee]

It’s got a multi-cultural cast and the action translates across languages.

 

[First Avenger]

Thor did more than Guardians overseas? Wow. Also 300M domestic is crazy considering USA's reception to TDW.

 

[Adder]

A well deserved great run at the BO.

 

[Iceman]

Thor did more than Guardians overseas? Wow. Also 300M domestic is crazy considering USA's reception to TDW.

This is what happens when you do Thor right! I think a Thor 4 if it happened would do even better without the TDW baggage right before it,

 

[BigThor]

This is what happens when you do Thor right! I think a Thor 4 if it happened would do even better without the TDW baggage right before it,

Thor 4 could make a billion, now that the character finally had a break through film.

 

[Iceman]

Thor 4 could make a billion, now that the character finally had a break through film.

I think it could be possible, especially if exchange rates are favourable at the time.

 

[warriorking]

This is what happens when you do Thor right! I think a Thor 4 if it happened would do even better without the TDW baggage right before it,

TDW was hardly baggage, it was still a box office success and it made a nice profit for marvel.
Sure it had its problems, but I think baggage is a bit harsh..
I still find it quite re-watchable to this day...
But hey ..thats just me...

 

[ironman_rick]

You know what......if TR had opened a week earlier....we would be talking about the possibility of TR grossing around $900M.

Hopefully DC and marvel come to some sort of arrangement to not open their movies within a month of their counterparts

 

[HammerDown]

International comparison.

Overseas ---- TR -------- SM:HC

China -------- 112.1M ---- 118.8M
U.K. ---------- 40.4 ------- 39.5
Korea -------- 35.1 ------- 51.5
Brazil -------- 30.3 ------- 31.8
Australia ----- 25.8 --------- 19.7
Russia ------- 23.5 ------- 16.3
France ------ 21.2 -------- 18.7
Mexico ------ 21.1 -------- 27
Germany ---- 18.1 ------- 11.6
Indonesia --- 11.7 ------- 12.3
India -------- 11.7 ------- 11.4
Italy --------- 10.3 ------ 10.1
Taiwan ------- 10.3 ------ 9.6
Spain -------- 10.3 ------ 11.9
Japan -------- 9.8 ------- 25.3
Philipines ---- 7.8 ------- 7.5
Malaysia ----- 7.1 ------- 6.7

Totals:
Spider-Man: Homecoming - 545M
Thor Ragnarok - 532M *

*Still playing.

 

[Flemm]

I wonder how TLJ will do since Star Wars international BO power is lacking in Asian markets.

Well, Star Wars is not quite the phenomenon overseas as it is in the states, but it's still a force to be reckoned with (pun not intended, but I'm ok with it being there ).

For comparison, The Force Awakens:
1.13 Billion internationally, 124M China, 24M South Korea, 97M Japan

So it's not exactly a lightweight.

I'm not sure what will happen with the overall international number, but even if it goes down by quite a bit, it's still going to end up high on the list, maybe top 3.

 

[iEquinox]

Weekend actuals came in at $6,271,374(-36.6%) domestic and $3,565,495(-46.2%) OS.

Totals after Sunday:
Domestic: $301,136,438
+ Foreign: $532,567,590
= Worldwide: $833,704,028

So it basically just moved along as expected this weekend:

Yeah, I'm expecting it to be between $833-834M worldwide after Sunday.

Let's see how it fares against the tough competition coming up over the next 2 weeks. Those 2 weeks are a bit harder to predict than this weekend, which was a bit empty.