Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[los pollos]

Well, Star Wars is not quite the phenomenon overseas as it is in the states, but it's still a force to be reckoned with (pun not intended, but I'm ok with it being there ).

For comparison, The Force Awakens:
1.13 Billion internationally, 124M China, 24M South Korea, 97M Japan

So it's not exactly a lightweight.

I'm not sure what will happen with the overall international number, but even if it goes down by quite a bit, it's still going to end up high on the list, maybe top 3.

Age of Ultron: $240M China, $78M South Korea, $26M Japan, $17M Hong Kong, $8.8M Thailand, $18.4M Taiwan, $9.9M Singapore, $13.4M Maylasia

~$411.5M from Asian Markets for Ultron vs ~$282M for Force Awakens in the same markets I listed above. Japan is the main outlier.

 

[Iceman]

What has been the MCU's best performer in Asia?

 

[los pollos]

What has been the MCU's best performer in Asia?

Age of Ultron had the biggest performance in that market, with Civil War in second place. South Korea and China in particular seems to love MCU movies.

 

[Iceman]

Age of Ultron had the biggest performance in that market, with Civil War in second place. South Korea and China in particular seems to love MCU movies.

Thanks. Was CW close to AoU? I hope IW can do a fair bit more than AoU.

 

[Flemm]

~$411.5M from Asian Markets for Ultron vs ~$282M for Force Awakens in the same markets I listed above. Japan is the main outlier.

Avengers puts up great numbers overall, but what does that have to do with this year's international box office?

After 1.13 Billion for The Force Awakens, 800-900M for The Last Jedi is probably on the low end, but that would still put it at #3 for the year. The point being: Star Wars' record-setting domestic numbers don't make it a lightweight overseas.

 

[RoryTate]

You know what......if TR had opened a week earlier....we would be talking about the possibility of TR grossing around $900M.

Remember though, it did open a week earlier in most overseas markets than it did in NA, and that's where it's earned the majority of its WW money, so I think that $900M is still a fairly lofty goal for this franchise.

Maybe if they set up something interesting for Thor in Infinity War, that might be enough to push it higher. Otherwise, I can't see them having another legendary teaser trailer to generate such great early buzz. The "Immigrant Song" trailer is really a case of lightning in a bottle, and can't be expected to happen again.

 

[russian gal]

TDW was hardly baggage, it was still a box office success and it made a nice profit for marvel.
Sure it had its problems, but I think baggage is a bit harsh..
I still find it quite re-watchable to this day...
But hey ..thats just me...

you're not the only one

great weekend!!
Good to know it beat WW! I find it a bit overrated/
TR definitely desreves all the money its getting

850 would be a cherry on top

& Thor 4 must happen!

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...December 3, 2017 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $291,633,535 / $817,759,240


BO update...December 10, 2017 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $301,136,438 / $833,704,028

 

[warriorking]

Monday Total: $516,235.00
Dom: $301,652,673
WW: $834,220,263

 

[los pollos]

Avengers puts up great numbers overall, but what does that have to do with this year's international box office?

After 1.13 Billion for The Force Awakens, 800-900M for The Last Jedi is probably on the low end, but that would still put it at #3 for the year. The point being: Star Wars' record-setting domestic numbers don't make it a lightweight overseas.

Ultron came out the same year as The Force Awakens, and the MCU is Disney's second biggest franchise next to Star Wars. I compared their performance in Asian markets specifically because although TFA's numbers are decent, Disney expected it's gross in those territories to be a lot bigger than they ended up getting. A big reason for that was the sharp drop it had on it's second weekend in China (72%) according to the article below. Those territories not performing to expectations cost that movie the number 2 slot of world wide grosses. I think The Last Jedi will see a decline from TFA numbers further hurting it's worldwide gross.

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-e...ing-worldwide-box-office-record-a6820851.html

That's enough discussion about Star Wars from me in a Thor Ragnarok thread.

 

[Krystal]

So Ragnarok will be at $303 domestic and $835 worldwide by Thursday night when Star Wars comes out. Very nice.

 

[Power Cosmic]

I'm so happy about this. Thor is one of the greatest characters ever created, and it deserves a great movie. The huge box office is just the cherry on top!

 

[warriorking]

$740,606 Tuesday totals.
302,393,279 Domestic
834,960,869 WW

 

[Iceman]

$850m getting that much closer.

 

[Krystal]

Never gonna happen.

I say that about every Ragnarok milestone and always get proven wrong -- so here I go again.

 

[seriesofdreams]

Anyone have a line on the Wednesday totals yet? One more day until TLJ dominates for the next month.

 

[warriorking]

$556,948: Wednesday Numbers
$302,950,227: Domestic
$834,777,211: WW
We should be around 840 Million WW by the end of the weekend..
Star Wars will take a huge bite from the weekend totals...
Not one dime from me of course

 

[ultradog]

As JL is fading faster, daily numbers for T:R are creeping up on the dailies for JL. Yesterday T:R made nearly 74% of what JL took in. I expect that to grow to 80%, 90%, and overtake JL within about 3 weeks.

Accordingly JL will lose theaters faster, and T:R will eventually be playing in more theaters. I think T:R to still be playing for weeks after JL is done. Good news for all us "let's add insult to injury" types!

 

[Kev4000]

As JL is fading faster, daily numbers for T:R are creeping up on the dailies for JL. Yesterday T:R made nearly 74% of what JL took in. I expect that to grow to 80%, 90%, and overtake JL within about 3 weeks.

Accordingly JL will lose theaters faster, and T:R will eventually be playing in more theaters. I think T:R to still be playing for weeks after JL is done. Good news for all us "let's add insult to injury" types!

Yupp, totally. While Ragnarok has still 7 shows in the Cinema of my City, Justice League has 3.

 

[Playco Armboy]

$556,948: Wednesday Numbers
$302,950,227: Domestic
$834,777,211: WW
We should be around 840 Million WW by the end of the weekend..
Star Wars will take a huge bite from the weekend totals...
Not one dime from me of course

If I may ask, why?

 

[warriorking]

If I may ask, why?

Lets just say from the spoilers I have read and the train wreck TFA was, I want nothing to do with this franchise that I grew up with...
Others may see it differently, but for this old timer..I'm Done!!!!!

 

[ultradog]

Accordingly JL will lose theaters faster

Whoa, I spoke about 30 minutes too soon. T:R is taking a beating in # of theaters this week, losing 1152 theaters, the most of any movie. And that is 37.8% of its theaters, while JL is only losing 23%. T:R is now actually in less theaters at this stage than Doctor Strange was last year, 1895 to DS's 1930.

Still, I expect for what I said above to eventually happen, may just take a little longer. Maybe JL's theater contract prevented it from yet losing so many theaters as T:R, I don't know anything about such things...

 

[warriorking]

Whoa, I spoke about 30 minutes too soon. T:R is taking a beating in # of theaters this week, losing 1152 theaters, the most of any movie. And that is 37.8% of its theaters, while JL is only losing 23%. T:R is now actually in less theaters at this stage than Doctor Strange was last year, 1895 to DS's 1930.

Still, I expect for what I said above to eventually happen, may just take a little longer. Maybe JL's theater contract prevented it from yet losing so many theaters as T:R, I don't know anything about such things...

I look for TR to max out at around 845 Million when all is said and done..

 

[HammerDown]

It should be over 840M by Sunday.

 

[Krystal]

^ Yeah and after that it only makes $5m more! So there!