Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Who was the guy that was adamant Priest was a lock for 50 million opening weekend or so?

Poor Paul Bettany.

 

[rashad]

On the BOM forums they're reporting 34.7 actuals for Thor! Not official until they update the site, but if true that's awesome!

It was a great weekend for the top 3. Stunning increases. FF showing great legs. Bridesmaids will be a breakout hit. It's just great to see the boxoffice live right now.

 

[Tony Stark]

Helped? It's the only reason you could possibly claim it topped them. That and the continued emergence of foreign markets.

In terms on tickets sold Thor isn't even in the same ballpark. Not trying to diminish it's accomplishments, but domestic gross five years later and Thor still won't sniff TLS.

Apples and oranges. BluRay didn't exist when X-men was out and streming was limited to 420p maximum. It took days to download a feature length movie at any decent viewing quality, and it would eat up your hard disk space with just a few downloads.

It's a totally different market. Yeah it sold more tickets, but there are multiple reasons.

Thor's performance, may not be a walk off grand slam, but at worst it's an RBI double, or perhaps an inside the park home run.

 

[Tony Stark]

Who was the guy that was adamant Priest was a lock for 50 million opening weekend or so?

Poor Paul Bettany.

Someone said that? Here? They had to have been joking.

Still even Priest performed as expected. I thought it could be the first film to severely underperform, as I had it at 8M. Which is good, because as someone said, people are starting to go back to the box office.

 

[flickchick85]

$34.7m? Even better! 47% is the best 2nd-weekend drop of any Marvel studios movie so far.

 

[kedrell]

I see this as raking in another $120M WW at minimum. Let's forget that this has already proven to have good WOM and better than average legs for just a moment. Even if it's multipier went to s**t starting right now(which there's no reason to think that it will) and all it gets from here on out is a flat 2.0X; then it's overseas weekend gross(27.5M) would indicate that it's headed for another $55M coming in from foreign markets and on the domestic front a flat 2.0X would mean another 69.4M for a rest of it's WW run total of 124.4M on top of the $344,455,352 WW it has already made. That would give it $468,855,352. They way I see it, that's it's minimum now. And the likelihood of it exceeding that amount is high. $500M WW is so 'still in play' that it's not even funny.

 

[Still Wynning]

http://www.superherohype.com/news/articles/167291-thor-reaches-3442-million-worldwide

Holy crap!!!! Where did all that money come from?!? International sales?!?

 

[Spideyfan93]

Let's go Thor!

 

[kedrell]

^Yep. It's around $225M OS. I see $280M OS at it's minimum when all is said and done.

 

[KangConquers]

^Yep. It's around $225M OS. I see $280M OS at it's minimum when all is said and done.

What would you say is the most likely scenario for final figures?

The big numbers to break are $200M Dom and $300M OS.

 

[Spideyfan93]

Domestic is 120 million right now...no way it'll reach 200 million. Especially with the influx of Pirates, Panda, and Hangover approaching...I say it does reach 150 million.

 

[kedrell]

What would you say is the most likely scenario for final figures?

The big numbers to break are $200M Dom and $300M OS.

I think DOM that it maybe, just might be able to scratch it's way to $200M. Should be able to get within $10M of it at any rate. OS I think breaking the $300M is an easier gamble. Probably $310-315M. So I'm expecting a WW total(which is really all that matters rather than breakdowns) of $500M-$515M.

 

[kedrell]

Domestic is 120 million right now...no way it'll reach 200 million. Especially with the influx of Pirates, Panda, and Hangover approaching...I say it does reach 150 million.

Do you know how horrible it's legs would suddenly have to become for it to only reach $150M domestic? It's not going to happen. You're talking less than a 1.0X from here on out.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Go Thor Go!!!

 

[kedrell]

Making $9M domestic during it's next round of weekdays seems pretty much a sure thing. I'm hoping for a bit better and maybe it can do $10.5-10.6M just to make it an even $130M domestic going into the next weekend. What can I say? I like round numbers.

 

[Spideyfan93]

It'll be interesting to see how it does against Pirates. If Pirates doesn't do well with word of mouth...people could go see Thor as an alternative.

But Hangover Part II is getting sick talk around. It is going to strike gold in it's first weekend, terrible or not.

 

[Chewy]

What would you say is the most likely scenario for final figures?

The big numbers to break are $200M Dom and $300M OS.

I think 185M DOM / 280M OS are where it's headed based on the competition that's coming up. If it can hold well it might be able to break 200M DOM / 300M OS.

 

[kedrell]

Let's just assume for the sake of arguement that my not-unrealistic-at -all hopes of it being at $130M by thursday's end DO happen. Now POTC4 is going to be real competition and take away much of Thor's 3-D screens. Keep in mind that 1st weekend-to-2nd weekend drops are usually the steepest for blockbusters and subsequent weekend drops are usually softer. Thor just had a mere 47% drop on it's hardest weekend-to-weekend transition. Without stuff like POTC4 coming out next weekend, it's drop would more likely than not have been even less than it's drop for this weekend. But let's say POTC4 hits it pretty hard and the low 40's % drop it would likely have had will now mean something more like an even 50% drop(seems reasonable to me given tha factors). That would indicate a $17-17.5M 3rd weekend for Thor. 17 + 130 = $147M domestic after the next weekend. It could be as low as $145M if everything that can go wrong does go wrong but still that's where it'll be at least by that time. But I'm betting it'll break $150M domestic by weekend's end.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

The only way Pirates effects it, is Thor will lose some 3D screens, but I have a feeling the effects will be minimal. I think the lack of 2D hurt the film in it's opening weekend, and now that it will pickup more 2D screens, it will actually be good.

I would say that's good.

In my local theater, the 3D showings are lagging far behind the 2D showings. It started with the midnight showing....which was packed almost to capacity in the 2D theater and only had a few people buy the 3D tickets.

I don't think 3D helped Thor as much as other 3D movies.

 

[kedrell]

I think 185M DOM / 280M OS are where it's headed based on the competition that's coming up. If it can hold well it might be able to break 200M DOM / 300M OS.

So you think that competition IS in fact going to reduce it's OS multiplier to a 2.0X. Ok, that's fair. I think it's a bit pessimistic given it's proven WOM but you could be right.

 

[Raiden]

Who was the guy that was adamant Priest was a lock for 50 million opening weekend or so?

Poor Paul Bettany.

Who would predict Priest to have a 50 mil OW? Not even Screen Gem's PR person would dare make this kind of prediction.

 

[TheVileOne]

It should be about $130 million by weekend three. Pirates 4 will take over this weekend but it doesn't matter. Thor has made most of it's money now. Memorial Day weekend for weekend 4 will give it a good hold over and it will be well over $150 million by that point.

Actuals are out and the $34 million estimate held pretty well. Way to go.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

^$130 million by the end of this coming weekend?

It won't stop there.

 

[Chewy]

By the beginning of the coming weekend

 

[S.A.A.D.]

He seemingly didn't say it like that.