Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[Doctor Jones]

If anything, Avengers will make the least amount out of the three.

 

[Doctor Jones]

It's funny to hear people saying how next year looks weak compared to this year, because I feel the exact opposite. Oh sure, there are more notable blockbusters being released this year, but with exception of the final Harry Potter, my anticipation for all of them dramatically pales in comparison to my anticipation for The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, Amazing Spider-man, Star Trek 2, John Carter of Mars and Man of Steel. And of course The Hobbit will be huge as well (even if I've never been too into that universe), while I'm also more psyched about M:I4 than any previous film of that franchise since it's Brad Bird's live-action debut, and Brave marks the return of my interest in Pixar (after it took a sabbatical for Cars 2 this year). Seriously, to me, next year is pretty much the biggest blockbuster year I've ever seen in terms of anticipation. This year's blockbusters just feel like the little warm-ups in comparison.

Well let's just hope we don't all die then.

 

[hatebox]

Thor held rather well domestically this weekend given the competition, but its overseas take is quickly perishing. It's all academic now, of course.

 

[kedrell]

If anything, Avengers will make the least amount out of the three.

Eh, I dunno. I see it as an even slug-out with The Avengers & Batman7(which I will bet my bottom dollar is going to drop from TDK's gross since it's Joker-less) and The Hobbit having a bit of an edge on both of them(much longer built up anticipation). They'll likely be the 3 biggest films of the year, at any rate. ST2, Spidey4, Supes6 will all probably come up behind them.

 

[moe]

Eh, I dunno. I see it as an even slug-out with The Avengers & Batman7(which I will bet my bottom dollar is going to drop from TDK's gross since it's Joker-less) and The Hobbit having a bit of an edge on both of them(much longer built up anticipation). They'll likely be the 3 biggest films of the year, at any rate. ST2, Spidey4, Supes6 will all probably come up behind them.

but it has an advantage over TDK in that nolan is a known commodity now... people know his work now and Inception established him in mainstream. It's going to be in every pre-release interview or tv conversation as they are going to bring up Inception and its success... i mean what other movie from the last few years was mentioned in so many rap/pop songs that inception was? ... lil weezy did a whole video that was inception themed..

TDKR's minium is 450 million domestic... its going to break every speed record there is... even without 3D.

 

[weezerspider]

but it has an advantage over TDK in that nolan is a known commodity now... people know his work now and Inception established him in mainstream. It's going to be in every pre-release interview or tv conversation as they are going to bring up Inception and its success... i mean what other movie from the last few years was mentioned in so many rap/pop songs that inception was? ... lil weezy did a whole video that was inception themed..

TDKR's minium is 450 million domestic... its going to break every speed record there is... even without 3D.

Exactly. People liked the TDK for much more than The Joker. Just look at Inception. The trailers gave away nothing, but "FROM THE DIRECTOR OF THE DARK KNIGHT" was enough, along with Leo, to make it a huge hit. It may not make as much as TDK( I agree), but I don't see it dropping very dramatically. Also the Nolan Bat-films seem to have a greater audience as far as age goes. My buddy is the GM at the local theater and he gets a good look at the audiences and in his words "No one over the age of 55 ever comes to Iron Man unless their with kids/grandkids. TDK and Inception had people of literally all ages"
I'm not trying to say The Avengers won't be hit. It will be a huge hit, but I think TDKR will be more successful, at least by a small margin. Plus I hear way more people talking about TDKR than The Avengers and most people I hang out with aren't inept. They know there is an Avengers film next year.

 

[moe]

If anything, Avengers will make the least amount out of the three.

very likely.

The Hobbit is very popular... it has sold more than any of the other LOTR books.. i think combined the trilogy has sold more.. but Hobbit is still well over 150 million sold... that's like 3 times as much as the most sold harry potter book...

and it will be 9 years since the last LOTR... so there isn't franchise fatigue...

as for Avengers... it will probably be an event and front-loaded... but i doubt it becomes a cultural phenomena as the characters are established and there will be no surprises.... its very difficult to predict thou... it will have the fantasy/sci-fi look that attracts over-seas audience... and the domestic fanboys will be there no matter what.

 

[hatebox]

Eh, I dunno. I see it as an even slug-out with The Avengers & Batman7(which I will bet my bottom dollar is going to drop from TDK's gross since it's Joker-less)

As things currently stand I really don't see Avengers beating TDKR. Yes the lack of Joker will hinder the latter, but that TDK ended on a virtual cliffhanger ensures that most who saw it will be back for more. Of course, if TDKR isn't very good then after its inevitable record-breaking opening weekend all bets are off.

 

[moe]

Exactly. People liked the TDK for much more than The Joker. Just look at Inception. The trailers gave away nothing, but "FROM THE DIRECTOR OF THE DARK KNIGHT" was enough, along with Leo, to make it a huge hit. It may not make as much as TDK( I agree), but I don't see it dropping very dramatically. Also the Nolan Bat-films seem to have a greater audience as far as age goes. My buddy is the GM at the local theater and he gets a good look at the audiences and in his words "No one over the age of 55 ever comes to Iron Man unless their with kids/grandkids. TDK and Inception had people of literally all ages"
I'm not trying to say The Avengers won't be hit. It will be a huge hit, but I think TDKR will be more successful, at least by a small margin. Plus I hear way more people talking about TDKR than The Avengers and most people I hang out with aren't inept. They know there is an Avengers film next year.

And the Word-of-mouth on inception was insane... it had an almost 5 multiplier...

and if TDKR tops Inception (which topped TDK)... then the people will be talking about it and its going to create the same hysteria that TDK did...

and it is assurdly getting a China release with no lau (chinese bad guy)... that means an additional 60 million + min... as china has become the largest over-seas market... Inception did 60+ million even after it came out a month and a half later and was pirated like hell in china... TDKR is going to increase world-wide.

 

[Chewy]

It's arguable that Inception topped TDK. Inception had a better multiplier than TDK but the actual numbers were on a much smaller scale. To get the kind of multiplier TDK got with the numbers it was pulling in is incredibly rare.

 

[Chewy]

As things currently stand I really don't see Avengers beating TDKR. Yes the lack of Joker will hinder the latter, but that TDK ended on a virtual cliffhanger ensures that most who saw it will be back for more. Of course, if TDKR isn't very good then after its inevitable record-breaking opening weekend all bets are off.

I think both Avengers and TDKR are going to break the OW record. It wouldn't surprise me if TDKR's 3 day is close to 200M.

 

[moe]

It's arguable that Inception topped TDK. Inception had a better multiplier than TDK but the actual numbers were on a much smaller scale. To get the kind of multiplier TDK got with the numbers it was pulling in is incredibly rare.

i am not saying its going to get a 5 multiplier with TDKR's opening... that is nuts... its opening weekend is going to be around 180 million.... so a 2.5 to 3 multiplier... which it should get will ensure over 450 million...

Inception's run was as impressive as TDK's blistering one... it was an unknown commodity and people were predicating less than 300 million world wide... for it to pull in 825 million (without 3D) was incredible.

 

[weezerspider]

I think The Avengers could beat The Hobbit(is that CONFIRMED to come out in 2012?). Avengers will be the first time in Hollywood that Superheros from different franchises(all of them probably fairly successful) come together in one film. Also, every Marvel Studios Film since 2008 has built up to it one way or another, so the GA IS excited for it. I think all three films could be very close.

 

[Chewy]

i am not saying its going to get a 5 multiplier with TDKR's opening... that is nuts... its opening weekend is going to be around 180 million.... so a 2.5 to 3 multiplier... which it should get will ensure over 450 million...

Inception's run was as impressive as TDK's blistering one... it was an unknown commodity and people were predicating less than 300 million world wide... for it to pull in 825 million (without 3D) was incredible.

I know you weren't saying that. That post had nothing to do with TDKR. It was in reference to the point you made that Inception "topped" TDK.

 

[weezerspider]

And the Word-of-mouth on inception was insane...

Word of mouth was huge, but the opening weekend numbers were much stronger than I would have thought, which has very little to do with word of Mouth.

 

[moe]

I know you weren't saying that. That post had nothing to do with TDKR. It was in reference to the point you made that Inception "topped" TDK.

oh. i meant as in quality of the film.... not box-office prowess.

 

[moe]

Word of mouth was huge, but the opening weekend numbers were much stronger than I would have thought, which has very little to do with word of Mouth.

that can be attributed to the trailer... the last inception trailer was the best trailer i had ever seen... from music to timing... to the scenes shown... perfection...

Avengers needs a great trailer... but its hard when you have to showcase 4 superheroes... they may just spotlight Ironman...and show glimpses of the others...

 

[TheVileOne]

With the 4 day weekend, Thor makes $12 million and drops 22%.

So I figure, it will be over about $165 million by the next weekend. $175 million is a certainty at this point. Again I'm thinking $185 million is where it tops off.

Now here is the thing, they might try to push it to $200 million but to do that, studios have to let the bigger theatres get more money because they like to get older movies out and put in the new stuff.

 

[Chewy]

Avengers needs a great trailer... but its hard when you have to showcase 4 superheroes... they may just spotlight Ironman...and show glimpses of the others...

Not really. Many trailers focus on 4 characters. Especially when those 4 characters are, y'know, the selling point.

 

[DieSmiling]

People aren't giving Spider-Man a ton of respect in this thread. I think it could easily be bigger than the Avengers.... Iron Man is the only proven "mega" draw in the ensemble and his films have never sniffed Spidey.

 

[04nbod]

With the 4 day weekend, Thor makes $12 million and drops 22%.

So I figure, it will be over about $165 million by the next weekend. $175 million is a certainty at this point. Again I'm thinking $185 million is where it tops off.

Now here is the thing, they might try to push it to $200 million but to do that, studios have to let the bigger theatres get more money because they like to get older movies out and put in the new stuff.

I would think the movie has paid for itself internationally now and any extended release will bring money into their pockets regardless. Its just a matter of whether they feel they can sell the Avengers on the prestige of having multiple blockbusters past $200M or get more from the full price DVDs and Blu-rays.

They may like holding off on the DVD to get the Christmas market and maybe a teaser trailer/featurette for The Avengers but they will also want to drain the full price sales quickly and get budget priced editions out in time for Avengers so people can catch up.
Iron Man made over $300M domestic. There are people who won't have seen Thor because they didn't think they were related.

People aren't giving Spider-Man a ton of respect in this thread. I think it could easily be bigger than the Avengers.... Iron Man is the only proven "mega" draw in the ensemble and his films have never sniffed Spidey.

I still think its too soon for that. If they show a trailer focused on origins again there could be a whole lot of people thinking they have seen it before with Tobey Maguire. (who was a bigger name)

I think The Avengers could beat The Hobbit(is that CONFIRMED to come out in 2012?). Avengers will be the first time in Hollywood that Superheros from different franchises(all of them probably fairly successful) come together in one film. Also, every Marvel Studios Film since 2008 has built up to it one way or another, so the GA IS excited for it. I think all three films could be very close.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 14/12/12
The Hobbit: There and Back Again 13/12/13

I still can't believe they are actually happening!

 

[Arach Knight]

So, Thor sits at $409 million after the weekend. It has a strong chance of taking in a few million more thanks to the Memorial Day holiday. Thor has officially passed the hurdle for absolute commercial success.

 

[Doctor Jones]

TDKR will be huge. Pretty much everybody loved TDK. Even the minority who didn't see it in theaters, got it on DVD, loved it, will probably be seeing it.

Yes it's Joker-less. it could go either way. But the hype from the last film and going into this one as combined will be so damn strong I wouldn't be quick to dismiss it being just as big as TDK. But yeah, no Joker could be a factor if it makes less. If t makes less, it won't be much less. It will probably be the biggest hit of 2012 alongside the Hobbit.

 

[flickchick85]

Well let's just hope we don't all die then.

Well, most of those will have been released by the time the world ends, so at least I'll die happy.

 

[TheVileOne]

I mean if you think about it, $200 million is a possibility. It needs less than $40 million. It just means Disney and Paramount have to stretch it out in theatres as long as possible and push it a little more. WB was able to get Superman Returns passed $200 million though that wasn't enough.