Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[hatebox]

I never like to make absolute statements on box office, but I simply don't see where that extra 38m is coming from domestically. Even if GL, X-Men and Cap Am underperform that money isn't suddenly going to Thor.

 

[Chewy]

So where would $450M worldwide place it among other superhero flicks?

Behind TDK, the 3 Spideys and the two Iron Men. Maybe X3.

 

[Chewy]

I never like to make absolute statements on box office, but I simply don't see where that extra 38m is coming from domestically. Even if GL,X-Men snd Cap Am underperform that money isn't suddenly going to Thor.

Yeah 200M DOM is a pipe dream at this point.

 

[SuperSAINT]

Behind TDK, the 3 Spideys and the two Iron Men

Did it make more than X-men? - That's not too shabby is it?

 

[Chewy]

Did it make more than X-men? - That's not too shabby is it?

X-Men 3 made 459 so it may or may not pass that. It has already passed the other 3 X-Men movies.

 

[SuperSAINT]

X-Men 3 made 459 so it may or may not pass that. It has already passed the other 3 X-Men movies.

Impressive. I really didn't think it would do this well (I'm pessimistic to the core)

 

[kedrell]

An extra 9M WW to pass X3 is totally possible. It's at least a 50/50 if not more favoring Thor. Of course you could also factor in inflation, 3-D prices, etc. which all work in X3's favor but I'm just talking flat numbers.

 

[Raiden]

An extra 9M WW to pass X3 is totally possible. It's at least a 50/50 if not more favoring Thor. Of course you could also factor in inflation, 3-D prices, etc. which all work in X3's favor but I'm just talking flat numbers.

Avatar is still being heralded as the #1 box office movie of all time, even though after adjusting for inflation Gone With the Wind made more. If Thor surpasses X3 they have nothing to excuse about.

 

[Chewy]

Yeah but those factors drive away a ton of potential ticket sales which is why admissions are almost always down from the previous year.

You can never have a 1:1 comparison of ticket sales of films released in different years which is why I'm not a fan of adjusting for inflation. Obviously if movie tickets were $3 they'd sell a lot more tickets.

 

[kedrell]

Well bringing in stuff like GWTW to a discussion of modern box office comparisons isn't a very useful thing to do in any case. GWTW(or any ancient film like that) has had decades of re-releases which added to it's gross. Also, the landscape of the entire entertainment world is so different now that you simply can't compare them. It's apples & oranges.

 

[Alexei Belyakov]

So judging by the film's progress so far, I'd say that if it makes it to $185 Domestic, I'll be happy (putting it ahead of Batman Forever and X-Men Origins).

I'd love to see it reach $206, but yeah its not looking too likely.

 

[kedrell]

Had this year been an average summer(competition-wise), then I have little doubt it would have hit $200M domestic.

 

[Chewy]

In a summer where Kung Fu Panda 2 has a 68M 5-day you know the competition is fierce. Thor did well for himself and with a boosted profile from the Avengers I am sure the sequel will increase.

 

[kedrell]

^Especially if it's in a less competitive summer.

 

[CaptainCraig]

I never like to make absolute statements on box office, but I simply don't see where that extra 38m is coming from domestically. Even if GL, X-Men and Cap Am underperform that money isn't suddenly going to Thor.

Yeah 200M DOM is a pipe dream at this point.

But still a dream to not totally give up on, despite the stretch.

Likely analysis as I see it could go.
Memorial Day 4-day: $12m = $162m
Tue-Thur: $3m = $165
Weekend: $6m = $170/171m (X-Men First Class weekend 6/3)
Mon-Thur: $3m = $174m
Weekend: $4m = $178m (this assumes it stays under 60% drops)
Mon-Thur: $2m = $180m
Weekend: $2m = $182m (Green Lantern weekend 6/17)

Over the next 11 days I could easily see another $3m giving it $185m going into the July 4 holiday weekend. That would be it's real last hurrah and could pull in another $3m or so then for a total of roughly $188m after 60 days in release.

So, imo, it's not a question of where does $38m come from, it's where does $12m come from?

TIH stayed in theaters for 84 days. Iron Man for 154 days. Iron Man 2 for 105 days in release, leaving theaters mid August. I think Thor is much more likely to get the 100days +/- and have a real shot at "finding" that needed $12m to eek out a $200m domestic total. Thor's release and commercial success lines up with the opening and has the pull of the IM's so that means THOR would have 6 weeks to make it happen.

DVD release(bare bones?) late October/early Nov.

 

[04nbod]

Nice Analysis. I expect the DVD in November in time for Christmas. The Extras will be sorted and will have been so prior to release. You need cameras on set for Behind the Scenes docs after all. They will want it out in time for a reduced price when the Avengers hits.

 

[moe]

In a summer where Kung Fu Panda 2 has a 68M 5-day you know the competition is fierce. Thor did well for himself and with a boosted profile from the Avengers I am sure the sequel will increase.

if thor had opened on the same week that Hangover 2 did... it would be in the same position kung fu panda is in... Hangover 2 is a beast. Its popularity is insane for its genre.

 

[herakles]

if thor had opened on the same week that Hangover 2 did... it would be in the same position kung fu panda is in... Hangover 2 is a beast. Its popularity is insane for its genre.

Everyone that I spoke to who have seen Hangover 2 said it was the same movie just in Thailand instead of Vegas. I expect a BIG drop off next weekend.

 

[moe]

Everyone that I spoke to who have seen Hangover 2 said it was the same movie just in Thailand instead of Vegas. I expect a BIG drop off next weekend.

it is. and its very funny.... people wanted the same... they love the three leads and wanted them back doing the same stuff... getting drunk outta their mind and finding out the did stuff no sane person would do... good stuff.

as for the big drop off... i don't think so... its not going to deter people from watch it... its a good time and everyone wants to have that...

 

[Tony Stark]

Kung Fu Panda and Thor are easily the best movies of the summer (or year for that matter), by far, even if financially they aren't at the top.

Hangover 2 was pretty funny, but a pretty big drop off from the first one. Pirates of the Carribean needs to be taken out back and put out of it's misery until some script writers can actually figure out what they're trying to do.

Transformers looks like it could be the event movie of the year, but I don't discount Michael Bay screwing the pooch again. I thought TF2 looked really good until I went ans saw it, and it was easily the worst movie of the last decade, or at least most dissapointing. I'm ashamed it made 400 million dollars, because it didn't deserve 400,000 dollars.

 

[rashad]

Thor being the best by far (of the year) is a bit a stretch for me. I've seen better films this year.

 

[CaptainCraig]

Thor being the best by far (of the year) is a bit a stretch for me. I've seen better films this year.

Example(s)?

I think most in this thread would admit to some bias but in all objectivity THOR is a quality film. In the top 5 of the year(to date) no doubt even allowing for the idea that art is subjective.

I enjoyed the limited release film The Conspirator but it and THOR are equally great for different reasons. I'm curious what your example(s) is?

 

[kedrell]

Ok, I just mapped it out. If Thor holds from this point on %-wise as well as IM2 did then it'll end at about $182M domestic.

 

[Juggernaut33]

Example(s)?

I think most in this thread would admit to some bias but in all objectivity THOR is a quality film. In the top 5 of the year(to date) no doubt even allowing for the idea that art is subjective.

I enjoyed the limited release film The Conspirator but it and THOR are equally great for different reasons. I'm curious what your example(s) is?

Off the top of my head: Tree of Life, The Beaver, Animal Kingdom, Midnight in Paris...

 

[hatebox]

I think most in this thread would admit to some bias but in all objectivity THOR is a quality film. In the top 5 of the year(to date) no doubt even allowing for the idea that art is subjective.

These two sentences are a complete contradiction in terms.

At any rate, the new X-Men movie is on course to be more critically acclaimed than Thor. For whatever that's worth.