Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[kedrell]

I think that's what he meant. By weekend 3 rather than by then end of weekend 3.

 

[BigThor]

Domestic is 120 million right now...no way it'll reach 200 million. Especially with the influx of Pirates, Panda, and Hangover approaching...I say it does reach 150 million.

Nah, it's only been out two weeks there's plenty of time for it to make between 190-200 million if it's holds well against the competition.

Helped? It's the only reason you could possibly claim it topped them. That and the continued emergence of foreign markets.

In terms on tickets sold Thor isn't even in the same ballpark. Not trying to diminish it's accomplishments, but domestic gross five years later and Thor still won't sniff TLS.

Inflation works both ways and X-Men: Last Stand already cost over 200 million (quite a bit more than Thor) so you can pretty much say that Thor is on it's way to becoming just as successful if not more so.

 

[TheVileOne]

I meant by weekend three meaning before the start of weekend 3. Stop being a hater SAAD.

I don't see it quite getting to $200 million, more like $180 million.

 

[kedrell]

180M would mean a sub 2.0X from here on out. Doubtful.

 

[kedrell]

If it holds just a 2.32X from here on out then it'll make 200M. WOM is better than just a 2.32X even when factoring in big competition.

 

[Tony Stark]

Right now percentage wise it's holding up better than IM1, which had a 3.2 multiplier. But even if you put it at 2.9 it would end up over 190. Personally I think it will end up over 200 million, especially when you consider the studio fudge factor.

As I said, next week it will be in the low 20's so really Pirates is not going to effect it. If it went up against Pirates in week 2, it might have been a different story.

Also Pirates is getting trashed and will likely be the lowest rated POTC movie, which is saying alot after the disaster that was AWE.

 

[BigThor]

Right now percentage wise it's holding up better than IM1, which had a 3.2 multiplier. But even if you put it at 2.9 it would end up over 190. Personally I think it will end up over 200 million, especially when you consider the studio fudge factor.

As I said, next week it will be in the low 20's so really Pirates is not going to effect it. If it went up against Pirates in week 2, it might have been a different story.

Also Pirates is getting trashed and will likely be the lowest rated POTC movie, which is saying alot after the disaster that was AWE.

Exactly, I think people are downplaying the fact that there's a real possibility of Thor reaching 200 million domestically.

 

[Arach Knight]

I suppose it is possible. Memorial Day weekend is a big weekend for films. I think there is room for Thor and Pirates. In fact, I'll be bold enough to say that even though Thor will drop to number 2, it will enjoy a slightly higher gross than this past weekend.

 

[BigThor]

I suppose it is possible. Memorial Day weekend is a big weekend for films. I think there is room for Thor and Pirates. In fact, I'll be bold enough to say that even though Thor will drop to number 2, it will enjoy a slightly higher gross than this past weekend.

You think it's make more than 34.7 million in it's 3rd weekend?

 

[Arach Knight]

I made a mistake. Memorial Day weekend is next weekend, so this week, Thor will take its lumps. But I expect a rebound once Memorial Day hits.

 

[BigThor]

I made a mistake. Memorial Day weekend is next weekend, so this week, Thor will take its lumps. But I expect a rebound once Memorial Day hits.

Ok, so you think Thor will make more than 34.7 million in it's 4th weekend?

 

[Tony Stark]

I made a mistake. Memorial Day weekend is next weekend, so this week, Thor will take its lumps. But I expect a rebound once Memorial Day hits.

Not really, it's not going to drop more than 45% next week. So the low will be around 20 million, most likely around 22 million, with the high end being a possible 25.

 

[Weadazoid]

I can't see Memorial Day giving Thor too much of a boost.

- Pirates is this weekend, but I expect THor to hold steady at 2nd, then Memorial Day hit speople with a slwe of openers so Thor is bound to slip hard down to say 4rth or 5th.

I Pirates Falters I expect the war for number 1 on Memorial day to be between the fat Panda - cause kids movies overwhelm all others on a holiday weekend and the Hangover - which will have big return numbers

-Tree of life, I have no idea what to think about it, huge stars but A Thin Red Line really did almost nothing for me.

 

[kedrell]

I think this coming weekend it can still make an even $20M, but that's pretty much the highest I'll predict for it and would indicate a 42% drop. It definitely should at least get a 17.5M which would be a 50% drop. Then Memorial Day's 4 day weekend total should pretty much equal this next weekend's(which is only 3 days). Factor in at least $5M from weekdays between the two and if it's at $130m by this weekend's begining and: 130M + 20M + 5M + 20M = 175M by end of May. I wouldn't count on it being any lower than 5-10M than that total by that time at the worst.

 

[marcvader]

That's why I feel $200 mil is very much in play by the end of its run.

 

[kedrell]

I do as well. The only X-factor/variable we really can't know for sure about yet is just how much POTC4 is going to effect Thor's legs. But we'll find out this weekend.

 

[DieSmiling]

Inflation works both ways and X-Men: Last Stand already cost over 200 million (quite a bit more than Thor) so you can pretty much say that Thor is on it's way to becoming just as successful if not more so.

That's not what you originally said. You said "outgrossed" not "successful." Thor has not outgrossed the two bigger X-Men movies (and in terms of tickets sold, will not).

The continued growth of foreign markets has helped Thor a lot in terms of worldwide gross, but when you take everything into account Thor has not outgrossed X2 or TLS.

Not trying to take anything away from Thor, which is clearly a big hit (and I'm happy that it is) just pointing out the truth.

 

[marvelman2006]

I think the problem for Thor atleast in my area is its suffering from people simply not able to go see it who really want to. Most of them have exams right now and next week and others are working long shifts and have babies and other stuff going on not to mention getting bent over the barrell for gas prices. Thor should easily do some big numbers when it hits bluray in october.

 

[Chewy]

2.8M Monday

Over 350M worldwide now

 

[04nbod]

I think people are really underestimating how bad the box office has been this past year. Fox's biggest domestic hit last year was Black Swan, which just cracked $100 million. Thor, pardon the pun, is a godsend even with the production and marketing budget. Film tickets, DVDs, toys and posters? Bonanza!

 

[kedrell]

A 47.1% drop from last Monday. That's damn near exactly what the weekend to weekend drop was(.1% better actually). It it holds then it's looking at a weekdays total for it's 2nd week of $10.062M for a final total of $129.52M going into the weekend. I'm hoping each of the next 3 weekdays can grab another $160k on average per day. That'd get us across $130m by the start of the new weekend(again, I like round numbers).

 

[marcvader]

Alright, round number guy.

 

[BigThor]

That's not what you originally said. You said "outgrossed" not "successful." Thor has not outgrossed the two bigger X-Men movies (and in terms of tickets sold, will not).

The continued growth of foreign markets has helped Thor a lot in terms of worldwide gross, but when you take everything into account Thor has not outgrossed X2 or TLS.

Not trying to take anything away from Thor, which is clearly a big hit (and I'm happy that it is) just pointing out the truth.

Yeah it's called "moving on", becuase I was no longer referring to my "original post".

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think that it will make over 200mil. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Thor is doing fine but I personally still feel that Fast Five's run is more impressive because it doesn't have the 3D boost and it's a fifth in a franchise. Alot of people usually runaway from franchises when they get to this point but Fast Five is poised to be the biggest one yet (money wise atleast, I doubt it will sell more tickets than the first one)

And no I'm not trying to pit the two movies up against eachother, I'm just commenting on the boxoffice numbers.

 

[Raiden]

I think that it will make over 200mil. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Thor is doing fine but I personally still feel that Fast Five's run is more impressive because it doesn't have the 3D boost and it's a fifth in a franchise. Alot of people usually runaway from franchises when they get to this point but Fast Five is poised to be the biggest one yet (money wise atleast, I doubt it will sell more tickets than the first one)

And no I'm not trying to pit the two movies up against eachother, I'm just commenting on the boxoffice numbers.

I think the first movie like Thor will always be riskier than a 5th movie in a long-running franchise like Fast Five, because there's a built-in audience for Fast Five already. Thor, on the other hand, has to introduce this superhero/mythology concept to an audience who probably have never heard about Thor before, unlike Superman and Spider-man. That's why Hollywood loves sequels because they don't have to build any brand recognition. Therefore, I'm more impressed with Thor's BO take than Fast Five's.