Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[DarthSkywalker]

Errm... yeah I didn't think you didn't know, pretty basic lol. And it's clear what you were talking about, I was just backing you up (I know it's a schoolboy error doing that ) on the specific point that "DoFP was strong internationally. it was not massive" as the named films have done more just in US making the use of 'massive' for DOFP's overseas take look like even more of an exaggeration. (and of course the whole point of the amount being massive has since been clarified by kevork that it was just massive for X-films so nothing to see here )

I just got my wires crossed. Carry on. t:

 

[Superhero 101]

Those aren't good numbers.

I have never expected this film to hit a billion I did initially think that this could make 850 ww but I think with the reviews coming out apocalypse will make 700 ww which I think is a decent profit considering the budget is 234 million

 

[marieylee]

Those aren't good numbers.

If it does 650-700M WW, would be slightly disappointing, but won't be the end of all that some people are predicting about rebooting/working with Marvel/blah blah. Overseas and China will play a big part.

Before the year, many were saying XA would probably make about 700-800M and DP about 300-400M. If they can gross 1.4-1.5B between the 2, Fox will be ok.

Alice is getting even worse reviews, so I think it will help it a little bit.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I have never expected this film to hit a billion I did initially think that this could make 850 ww but I think with the reviews coming out apocalypse will make 700 ww which I think is a decent profit considering the budget is 234 million

They won't see any profit out of that. Not before the other revenue streams.

If it does 650-700M WW, would be slightly disappointing, but won't be the end of all that some people are predicting about rebooting/working with Marvel/blah blah. Overseas and China will play a big part.

Before the year, many were saying XA would probably make about 700-800M and DP about 300-400M. If they can gross 1.4-1.5B between the 2, Fox will be ok.

Alice is getting even worse reviews, so I think it will help it a little bit.

It will not get rebooted. But it won't be a win either.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

Sucks that Fox doesn't have any toy/shirts merchandise to come out with this movie. So many mutants.

 

[jaymes_e06]

I have never expected this film to hit a billion I did initially think that this could make 850 ww but I think with the reviews coming out apocalypse will make 700 ww which I think is a decent profit considering the budget is 234 million

Yep that's what I'm adjusting my my number to.

 

[spiderman2]

At first I was thinking this movie would make around 800m ww because I thought they had gotten some good will from first class and DOFP but now I am thinking it may only make 600 WW because it is looking like its reviews may end up being pretty bad and it has a lot of completion with coming out the same day as Alice and with TMNT coming out the next weekend. The last TMNT made just under 500m and I have seen more positives about the new TMNT going into it then I did for the last one.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

I think TMNT being okay will limit the sequel's surge at the BO.

What movie in June is supposed to challenge this so much? ID4:R?

Finding Dory seems like the only powerhouse.

 

[Superhero 101]

Don't underestimate Alice 2

 

[josh8]

Come on, it is not going to make less than $600M. DOFP's non-N.America cume was already $500M+.

International markets grosses don't really follow reviews. They follow marketing and build up. The box office for Transformers movies in N.America has fluctuated with "quality" (haha), but guess what? The international B.O. just keeps climbing. The X-Men brand is still on an upward trajectory. It's foreign B.O. is going to be at least $600M. Count on THAT.

 

[marieylee]

Don't underestimate Alice 2

It's very, very early, only 5 reviews on RT (20%), but its 39 Metacritic score (7 reviews, so 2 more rotten on RT) is really bad. We are talking worse than BvS bad. To me, if Alice 2 gets around 20% on RT, it may do VERY bad. Theres a big difference for many people on RT/critic score if one is under 20 and the other is around 50 (mixed). Around 50% is mixed reception, meaning half of the people will like it and half doesn't. Lots of movie can do well with a mixed critical reception. Very few will do well if the score is ~ 20%.

I'm curious to see what XA audience score will be. If it stays above 70, no need to panic.

 

[josh8]

You could see it coming a mile away... Alice 2 is going to be The Hunstman Part II (at least in the U.S.).

 

[StormC]

DOFP had Wolverine with top billing, and Stewart/Ian as extra. Without that Apocalypse doesn't have anything to really entice fair weather fans, so expecting it to perform similarly just because it's following DOFP is unrealistic.

 

[josh8]

And who exactly anchored the Transformers movies for the international audience?

Big action is what sells on the international market. It's why movies like John Carter, Prince of Persia, and Roland Emmerich type movies do better outside of the US.

DOFP gave the X-Men franchise street cred that will be a boon for XM:A. The marketing will show big action and will probably throw in some Hugh Jackman as well, since you think it's all on his shoulders.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

This movie should be able to reach $800 million

 

[GuestStar2004]

DOFP had Wolverine with top billing, and Stewart/Ian as extra. Without that Apocalypse doesn't have anything to really entice fair weather fans, so expecting it to perform similarly just because it's following DOFP is unrealistic.

It is a couple of reasons why it could do better then DOFP but there are a few things that may hurt it now also

 

[psylockolussus]

Sucks that Fox doesn't have any toy/shirts merchandise to come out with this movie. So many mutants.

I would love something for Psylocke.

 

[PelvicSorcery]

I never understood why the first Alice made so much money. It was a steaming pile of garbage! A mess! But it was one of the first major 3-D releases after Avatar, when 3-D was new and exciting to people lol.

I think the sequel won't come close to the numbers of the first, but it could still do well. Disney's live action versions of its animated classics have all done well so far, even with bad reviews like the first Alice and Maleficent.

 

[def28]

I never understood why the first Alice made so much money. It was a steaming pile of garbage! A mess! But it was one of the first major 3-D releases after Avatar, when 3-D was new and exciting to people lol.

I think the sequel won't come close to the numbers of the first, but it could still do well. Disney's live action versions of its animated classics have all done well so far, even with bad reviews like the first Alice and Maleficent.

3D boosted sales but the product iteself had enough mainstream interest to market with the creative director, actors, studio and name itself. It had a ton of hype. Being a live action Alice In Wonderland by Disney was enough alone.

I hated it too, but I was there opening day. Didn't care one bit about 3D, neither did anyone I know.

 

[GuestStar2004]

the CGI 3D phase is long gone now i think, So alice will probably be hurt by that

 

[MadVillainy]

It is a couple of reasons why it could do better then DOFP but there are a few things that may hurt it now also

What are those reasons

 

[GuestStar2004]

What are those reasons

1. Good selected group of A listers

2. Bringing back characters that went down well with the audience, quicksilver, nightcrawler ect ect

3. FC and DOFP being well received

4. Biggest villain yet

Obviously reviews are gonna counteract some of those things but overall the whole OC ain't here so fail doesn't really stand.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Based on the reviews, Apocalypse appears to fall into the same "sequel to major event movie" slump as AoU and TDKR. I expect it will make less than DoFP.

 

[Gerontophobe]

1. Good selected group of A listers

2. Bringing back characters that went down well with the audience, quicksilver, nightcrawler ect ect

3. FC and DOFP being well received

4. Biggest villain yet

Obviously reviews are gonna counteract some of those things but overall the whole OC ain't here so fail doesn't really stand.

1. Other than Jennifer Lawrence, none of the cast is A-list. I like McAvoy, Fassbender, Isaac, and Hoult but none of those are household names.

2. Quicksilver is probably an asset but I don't think Nightcrawler (who last appeared over a decade ago in a different trilogy played by a different actor, and who hasn't been displayed much in marketing) will have any effect. I also think this doesn't make up losing the original cast.

3. This may help opening weekend some but if the WOM is poor, a slightly higher opening isn't going to save XMA from weak legs.

4. I'm not sure this is that big a selling point. In international markets it may well be (world destruction and all that) but I'm not sure American audiences are that excited for a villain they've never heard about (and from early reviews, doesn't sound that great).

I'm not suggesting XMA will make less than DoFP as it probably will open a little higher and the international gross may grow to make up for any domestic drop. However, I don't feel terribly optimistic about it crossing $750M.

 

[GuestStar2004]

I did mean A list characters