Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Erzengel]

There's a number of $234M budgeted for Apocalypse going around. Think it was $200M for DOFP. You'd think they'd be shooting for at least $850M.

 

[Flint Marko]

They didn't spend more money to make less money, but it appears that's going to be what happens.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I did mean A list characters

But are they? Measuring character popularity among the GA is tough, but I generally default to Google Trends as a decent metric. It seems to be predictive of presidential primary results, after all, so it seems reasonable to use for superhero characters.

According to this, Wolverine is (predictably) the most popular X-Men character, and no one else is really even close. He compares favorably with both Iron Man (baseline slightly under) and Captain America (slightly better), although he isn't on the same level as Batman or Spider-Man (or even Superman).

A step below Wolverine are Magneto, Mystique, and Rogue. All three are moderately popular for X-Men characters but that isn't saying much (basically the same baseline level as Hawkeye). Then Professor X, Jean Grey, and Cylops are all even lower. Apocalypse and Beast barely register.

Maybe for comic fans XMA has an A-list lineup but for the general audience Mystique and Magneto are really the only ones to move the needle. (I guess it's no surprise then that Lawrence is front and center of everything.)

 

[GuestStar2004]

They didn't spend more money to make less money, but it appears that's going to be what happens.

When i spend money i make no money so i am sure they will be fine ;p

 

[GuestStar2004]

But are they? Measuring character popularity among the GA is tough, but I generally default to Google Trends as a decent metric. It seems to be predictive of presidential primary results, after all, so it seems reasonable to use for superhero characters.

According to this, Wolverine is (predictably) the most popular X-Men character, and no one else is really even close. He compares favorably with both Iron Man (baseline slightly under) and Captain America (slightly better), although he isn't on the same level as Batman or Spider-Man (or even Superman).

A step below Wolverine are Magneto, Mystique, and Rogue. All three are moderately popular for X-Men characters but that isn't saying much (basically the same baseline level as Hawkeye). Then Professor X, Jean Grey, and Cylops are all even lower. Apocalypse and Beast barely register.

Maybe for comic fans XMA has an A-list lineup but for the general audience Mystique and Magneto are really the only ones to move the needle. (I guess it's no surprise then that Lawrence is front and center of everything.)

In terms of X-Men they are more A list character then alot of the FC characters, i mean azael or nightcrawler?

 

[Gerontophobe]

In terms of X-Men they are more A list character then alot of the FC characters, i mean azael or nightcrawler?

Well that's a pretty low bar and that is part of the reason FC did only $354M. I'm just saying that the lineup of the team isn't going to be some huge boon for XMA at the box office. XMA is going to open on the X-Men brand and goodwill generated by DoFP. Where it ends up depends on WOM (which may not be too great).

 

[X-Maniac]

I wonder if we can expect an extended edition on Blu-ray as a sales booster...

 

[RLAAMJR.]

1. Good selected group of A listers

2. Bringing back characters that went down well with the audience, quicksilver, nightcrawler ect ect

3. FC and DOFP being well received

4. Biggest villain yet

Obviously reviews are gonna counteract some of those things but overall the whole OC ain't here so fail doesn't really stand.

I agree with you.

 

[psylockolussus]

Bringing back characters that went down well with the audience... except most of them, with a DIFFERENT actor.

That will truly work out.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

The movie is heavily promoted so it will do well domestically and overseas.

 

[Avalanche]

The movie is heavily promoted so it will do well domestically and overseas.

Define well?

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Define well?

Better than XDoFP

 

[Raiden]

The movie is heavily promoted so it will do well domestically and overseas.

If any movie can do well with heavy promotion then the movie studios don't even have to worry about the movie's quality.

 

[Sithborg]

Look at how well BvS did. Opening weekend generally is due to marketing. WB's marketing did a great job building up the demand for BvS. But, it can only do so much.

 

[BlackFox]

Trouble is BvS kept its reviews embargo'ed till the last minute so marketing wasnt fighting against headlines like "Makes Last Stand look like First Class", not a quote I expect to be a blurb on many posters or tv spots, lol.

 

[Avalanche]

Better than XDoFP

Unlikely.

 

[psylockolussus]

Better than XDoFP

Nah I don't think so.

 

[Erzengel]

It's unfortunate that the 3rd movie of a Trilogy doesn't live up.

I was hoping for a more rounded X-Men Trilogy.

 

[psylockolussus]

Same here.

Maybe next time.

 

[Weather Witch]

Trouble is BvS kept its reviews embargo'ed till the last minute so marketing wasnt fighting against headlines like "Makes Last Stand look like First Class", not a quote I expect to be a blurb on many posters or tv spots, lol.

It said "Like X2". But I agree with the rest.

 

[First Avenger]

Same here.

Maybe next time.

Come on psylock you're always so positive about those movies. I'm sure we're gonna enjoy it regardless of its reception.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Come on psylock you're always so positive about those movies. I'm sure we're gonna enjoy it regardless of its reception.

Joke?

 

[First Avenger]

Joke?

Um not at all,he loves those movies or am I wrong?

 

[BlackFox]

It's unfortunate that the 3rd movie of a Trilogy doesn't live up.

I was hoping for a more rounded X-Men Trilogy.

Thing is this never really felt like a trilogy to me, DOFP felt like the reset button that just happened to have the FC cast in it, it felt so different from it it never felt like a sequel to me. Apocalypse should have been like an origins story of how the original X-Men started which it still sort of is but never the ending of some trilogy rather the start but Singer and co always kept on saying how its the end of the FC trilogy. I guess its an odd hybrid of being both.

 

[Spiderdevil]

I doubt this is gonna cross DOFP, 750M is the roof now after these poor reviews