Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[RLAAMJR.]

Around $120 million.

for the first day only.

 

[JP]

Which is a shame really. $124 Mil projected 4-day weekend is only $2 Mil higher than X3.

We have 3 weeks to change that, hopefully...

 

[Gerontophobe]

Alice 2 won't be an issue. We all know the drop off after Batman and Batman Returns at the BO. Burton isn't even directing here. It's not even going to do Malificent numbers IMO. It will put a dent in Apocalypse but no more so than Malificent did with DoFP. The domestic numbers will still be up from DoFP so it's going to gross more for sure.

Saying the Batman franchise is like Alice is really odd, to say the least (not to mention against your argument, since Forever made more than Returns). More the point, I think Maleficent numbers are totally possible and DoFP didn't open the same weekend as Maleficent, so the effect is probably larger. I'm sure XMA will gross more than Alice 2 domestically (although I'm much less confident it will beat DoFP) but worldwide, who knows? I could see a scenario in which XMA finishes below Alice 2 globally.

Regardless of what finishes where, suggesting another tentpole releasing the same weekend won't have an effect is foolish. I don't think the effect will be very large because the audience overlap is small, but Alice will certainly win some families over. Even though XMA is opening higher, I feel like Alice hurts XMA more than it hurts Alice.

 

[Tilapia]

Alice was coming off a really light year competition wise at least compared to the climate today, plus the 3D craze. The sequel has no hype going in. This is clearly the year of the comic book film, even though BvS killed a lot of the momentum. The only films on anyone's radar has been these two Marvel films, plus maybe Suicide Squad. No question the female demo will flock to it, as will the kids, but they weren't going to see X-Men Apocalypse anyhow.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Alice was coming off a really light year competition wise at least compared to the climate today, plus the 3D craze. The sequel has no hype going in. This is clearly the year of the comic book film, even though BvS killed a lot of the momentum. The only films on anyone's radar has been these two Marvel films, plus maybe Suicide Squad. No question the female demo will flock to it, as will the kids, but they weren't going to see X-Men Apocalypse anyhow.

Superheros are obviously popular but to suggest everything else has taken a back seat is absurd. Zootopia and (probably) Jungle Book are both going to make more than Deadpool and BvS (and maybe DS, SS, and XMA as well). Finding Dory is going to be huge as is Rogue One.

Also, some families may very well have chosen XMA just as they chose DoFP. Blockbusters are successful by appealing to many different groups of moviegoers, not just fanboys. Women make up half of all moviegoers and kids another huge chunk, so to just write them off is demeaning.

 

[Sithborg]

Alice was coming off a really light year competition wise at least compared to the climate today, plus the 3D craze. The sequel has no hype going in. This is clearly the year of the comic book film, even though BvS killed a lot of the momentum. The only films on anyone's radar has been these two Marvel films, plus maybe Suicide Squad. No question the female demo will flock to it, as will the kids, but they weren't going to see X-Men Apocalypse anyhow.

Yeah, no. This forum has a bit of a bias. Do not underestimate some of the films coming out this summer.

 

[Tilapia]

Well, I'm one predicting Civil War will be the highest grosser of all time just behind TFA, beating Avengers and JW. I also have been predicting above the expected numbers for this film. So that's where I'm leaning. I just think these are the strongest stories and adaptations we've had in some time. Obviously I thought BvS would do better, but that took everyone off guard. Besides, Disney has to cool off at some point. I won't be selling all my shares until the reviews start coming in for Alice.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Well, I'm one predicting Civil War will be the highest grosser of all time just behind TFA, beating Avengers and JW. I also have been predicting above the expected numbers for this film. So that's where I'm leaning. I just think these are the strongest stories and adaptations we've had in some time. Obviously I thought BvS would do better, but that took everyone off guard. Besides, Disney has to cool off at some point. I won't be selling all my shares until the reviews start coming in for Alice.

Civil War or X-men: Apocalypse.

 

[Logan0327]

the trailers could of been better no XMA trailer touches the final dofp trailer

 

[Tilapia]

I found the final Apocalypse trailer to be just as good as anything DoFP. DoFP trailer maybe had some more excitement because of the star power, but that's about it. It pretty much gave away the entire plot unfortunately. The recent trailer with the claws at the end capped it off for me. I digress, trailers mean nothing, as Zack Snyder can attest to. Final MoS trailer still the best ever.

I got Apocalypse doing 300 domestic. With great reviews, probably 330. 550-600 foreign. Over the 800 mark, I'd say pushing 900. But the reviews have got to be there to carry it.

Civil War? I have that doing 1.7 WW, parking behind TFA. Just too much fire power there.

 

[Sithborg]

I still don't think a CBM will the biggest this year.

 

[Snikt]

They've actually lowered their original projection to $115M for opening weekend and $240M domestic.

But as others have said, I'm sure that'll change once we're about a week away. Especially if it receives great reviews weeks prior to the release.

 

[def28]

I still don't think a CBM will the biggest this year.

Star Wars, but I don't think anything else will hit that or Civil War numbers.

 

[Tilapia]

Rogue One looks a little bland. Seems a little anticlimactic to me. Not a fan of the premise. No real Jedis involved either. Is Obi Wan/McGregor making a cameo?

 

[def28]

Given the setting I'd assume Vader is. Its Star Wars so it's gonna bank, even with poor reviews. Just look at the prequels. It's also following Force Awakens which has everyone pumped for anything else Star Wars.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I found the final Apocalypse trailer to be just as good as anything DoFP. DoFP trailer maybe had some more excitement because of the star power, but that's about it. It pretty much gave away the entire plot unfortunately. The recent trailer with the claws at the end capped it off for me. I digress, trailers mean nothing, as Zack Snyder can attest to. Final MoS trailer still the best ever.

I got Apocalypse doing 300 domestic. With great reviews, probably 330. 550-600 foreign. Over the 800 mark, I'd say pushing 900. But the reviews have got to be there to carry it.

Civil War? I have that doing 1.7 WW, parking behind TFA. Just too much fire power there.

I think I would peg domestic a little lower and the foreign about the same. All in all, a reasonably optimistic prediction. I really hope it is just a good movie as Fox has finally gotten the X-Men back on track. Another crappy one would be so frustrating.

 

[Tilapia]

Given the setting I'd assume Vader is. Its Star Wars so it's gonna bank, even with poor reviews. Just look at the prequels. It's also following Force Awakens which has everyone pumped for anything else Star Wars.

I don't know, I hope this isn't the new Star Wars trend. Spinoff every year and pointless prequels. Han Solo and Boba Fett can actually be interesting because those are virtually separate universes that don't heavily involve rebels, the Empire, or Jedi. It's more EU.

The Rebels versus the Empire has got to be the most boring time period of the timeline. I'm not remotely interested. I guess if it revolves around Vader's hobbies it could be interesting. I would have liked to see Vader as the protagonist, but that would be Vader overkill after some point. It seems like only a film for the die hard fans, which is enough from a box office standpoint. Eventually, they are going to have to get McGregor/Obi Wan in there and Vader is going to need a sizable role. There are things you can do with both characters in that 30 year gap or so, although they can't directly face off.

 

[Sithborg]

I don't know, I hope this isn't the new Star Wars trend. Spinoff every year and pointless prequels. Han Solo and Boba Fett can actually be interesting because those are virtually separate universes that don't heavily involve rebels, the Empire, or Jedi. It's more EU.

The Rebels versus the Empire has got to be the most boring time period of the timeline. I'm not remotely interested. I guess if it revolves around Vader's hobbies it could be interesting. I would have liked to see Vader as the protagonist, but that would be Vader overkill after some point. It seems like only a film for the die hard fans, which is enough from a box office standpoint. Eventually, they are going to have to get McGregor/Obi Wan in there and Vader is going to need a sizable role. There are things you can do with both characters in that 30 year gap or so, although they can't directly face off.

Well you clearly aren't a Star Wars fan.

 

[Wildcard]

Don't know if this can still hit a billion given how much of a juggernaut (ha!) Civil War is building up to be, but I think this could at least hit $800-$900 million WW if the audience is really, really receptive to it.

 

[kineticist]

I wonder when the first reviews will be? The ones for Civil War were pretty early.

 

[Sithborg]

Don't know if this can still hit a billion given how much of a juggernaut (ha!) Civil War is building up to be, but I think this could at least hit $800-$900 million WW if the audience is really, really receptive to it.

Civil War isn't the issue. I'm sure it won't have BvS level drops, but it will have significant drops. 4 weeks in, it won't be that much of an issue. The issue is all the big movies opening right afterward, gobbling screens. You have TMNT the next weekend, then Conjuring 2 and Warcraft, and then Dory, and then ID4 for the finisher. All the while fighting Alice opening at the same time.

It isn't dire. but I don't think a billion is in play.

 

[Wildcard]

I agree, it's certainly not dire but a billion dollars is out of the question with so many new releases in the cards. I do agree CW isn't a huge threat to XMA (especially if it's superb & audiences love it) but if it has great legs then it could tug at XMA's numbers just a bit, even if not substantially. Same goes for the other releases.

 

[SAUspartan]

Will this get a China release date? Anybody know?

 

[yaellen]

Will this get a China release date? Anybody know?

It will certainly be released in China, Fox must be crazy if not to. Some say it will be released the same date as US release (Alice 2 will open on the 27th of May in China). Some say it could be the 17th of May. But Fox China has not officially announced the release date.

 

[X-Maniac]

I do think it's slightly unfortunate that X-Men Apocalypse comes so soon after Captain America Civil War, and that the 'global destruction' of X-Men is followed so soon by Independence Day 2.

It's a shame that distributors aren't able to be smarter in their planning rather than just allowing movies to be plonked on any release date the studios choose.

Batman v Superman had bad reviews and a mixed reaction but benefited immensely from having no competition, as did the much more positively reviewed Deadpool. Now that everything is getting so crowded, it is going to harm box office in as much as people have more choice when they decide they want to go to the cinema that weekend (because it's bad weather or they have no other plans).

Surely release dates should have some sort of overall control on them beyond studios just picking a slot on the calendar. It helps everyone in the long run if blockbusters are more spread out.