Written FAR better by Drew McWeeney at Hitfix
here:-
What? There is a lot incorrect with that assessment.
The Superman brand with the public isn't all that amazing. Yes, the name Superman, his S symbol, his powers, Lois Lane, etc - they are all extremely famous and well known throughout pop culture. But this isn't Nolans Batman - there is no major built in audience. The box office ceiling as high as any character, but the 'floor' isn't that amazing. I think a more accurate point to make would be that the Superman name is big enough to warrant attention. Whether or not the product captures a viewers interest is another thing, but Superman will not need to fight for attention from media outlets or in viewers minds the way WORLD WAR Z will have to, for example.
This point, however, - the basis for his argument, really - makes no sense.
The most dangerous thing to do with a giant blockbuster in today's media landscape is to jam it down the throat of the audience to the point where they learn to hate the film before they ever lay eyes on it.
That is hardly the most dangerous thing they can do. Any student of business will know the very best way to find success financially is to be as 'efficient as possible', and then out invest everybody else. Relating to films, that means be the very best film you can be. At that point, how much or how little marketing there is really doesn't matter - the film is what it is. How high it's box office ceiling is gets dictated by the studio based on how much or how little marketing they give it. 'Too much marketing' will not make a great film get average word of mouth. Lets look at some obvious example. 2002s Spider-man is among the most anticipated films EVER. Was it's quality that high? Not really. Was it's word of mouth amazing? Yes. There are dozens of other examples. Let's call this the 'WOM theory'. There is basically no such thing as too much marketing.
Lets take a look at an under marketed film. Batman Begins is a great example. Most unanimously agreed in 2005 that the marketing was weak. The trailers were decent, it had a super bowl spot - but for a film opening on June 15th, it's marketing over the last 2-3 weeks was weak. There were not nearly as many TV spots as the other big films of the year, which annoyed many people.
BB opened to 48m 3 day and 72m 5 day, en route 205 million total. It's excellent word of mouth was evident from the get go, as it's opening wednesday number (15 million) represented just over 20% of it's 5 day gross. Normally, the percentage is much higher. But there wasn't much an opening day rush (thanks to poor marketing) AND the word of mouth was good. $15 million worth of a good word of mouth from Wednesday seeped throughout the weekend, getting it the fantastic multiplier. Now, lets incorporate the WOM theory - which says WOM will generally stay the same regardless of how much marketing there is.
If WB had marketed Batman Begins more aggressively, and it opened to 20 million opening day instead of 15. $5 million really isn't that much more. But, knowing the good will from the word of mouth is compounded, lets run some numbers.
20 million Wednesday with the same 4.83 opening day - to 5 day total multiplier is 96.6 million - 24 million more than Batman Begins actually earned in the same period. Similar to how COMPOUND INTEREST in an investment account works, the wom is compounded. Knowing that, wouldn't you rather $20 million worth of audience members saying how amazing it is, as opposed to just $15 million?
Batman Begins 5 day to total multiplier was 2.82 (205/72). Apply that same # to 96.6, and you have a total of 273 million. That is 68 million more than Batman Begins actually opened. That is the power marketing just a bit more and getting it that higher opening day. The word of mouth spreads like wild fire. Of course, those numbers are on the high end - as the opening goes up, the multipliers drop a bit. But regardless, if Batman Begins had been marketed more, and gotten that 20 million opening day, it would be extremely unlikely it totals under, say, 245-250 million, given how great the word of mouth was. Knowing that, it was an obvious blunder on WBs part to underpromote.
As far as why there was very little new footage, I would guess it is because WB knows a new trailer is coming in the next 8-10 days. Rather than blow their wad early with the trailer so to speak, this is just serving as a reminder that "it's coming". A week from now when a new trailer drops, the word will be all about superman again. This is assuming the next trailer is good, of course.
They're going for 2 news cycles ("1st tv spot" and "new trailer"). They'd rather have the less new & exciting bit of marketing first.
