Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[StormC]

Thanks for the info on foreign exchange, guys. Interesting stuff.

So how is this looking to match Avengers' three week May streak? Angry Birds and Neighbors 2 in week 3 combined might siphon off enough competition that something gives, but I dunno.

 

[JB33]

Remember that it's been released in some territories on April 12, so it's been out almost 3 weeks in some places.

I don't think it was released anywhere that early. That was just the world premiere in L.A.. Its very first foreign release was on April 27.

 

[third3ye]

So how is this looking to match Avengers' three week May streak? Angry Birds and Neighbors 2 in week 3 combined might siphon off enough competition that something gives, but I dunno.

Based on the reviews for Angry Birds and Neighbors 2, I HIGHLY doubt they'll unseat CW from the #1 spot, even in its 3rd weekend. Sub-$200m OW also likely means week to week drops won't be terrible, though we won't really know how strong the legs are until this weekend. Expect Cap to stay on top for 3 weeks straight until May 27.

 

[KangConquers]

So is $500 M domestic still on the table?

 

[Iceman]

So is $500 M domestic still on the table?

For now yes but it needs a very good hold this coming weekend for it to become likely though.

 

[Silver Surfer]

So is $500 M domestic still on the table?

This Monday is an encouraging sign, this weekend will be the final indicator though.

 

[JB33]

So is $500 M domestic still on the table?

Personally, I doubt it. I'd love to be wrong though.

 

[Chesterfield]

In most places it's only been out a few days or a week longer. Is that right? When did it open in UK? Is there a list of opening dates?

Opened on April 29th in the UK.

 

[third3ye]

April 27 is the earliest date among any foreign territory. Box Office Mojo has the list of foreign territories with opening dates, not yet updated though as some territories like China haven't been posted yet.

 

[Gerontophobe]

In most places it's only been out a few days or a week longer. Is that right? When did it open in UK? Is there a list of opening dates?

Here: It began opening places on Apr 27 and in the UK on Apr 29.

Based on the reviews for Angry Birds and Neighbors 2, I HIGHLY doubt they'll unseat CW from the #1 spot, even in its 3rd weekend. Sub-$200m OW also likely means week to week drops won't be terrible, though we won't really know how strong the legs are until this weekend. Expect Cap to stay on top for 3 weeks straight until May 27.

I think the reviews for Angry Birds probably will keep it under $40M but the early stuff for Neighbors 2 isn't awful. It is pretty close to the last one (73% on RT, average of 6.3) which opened to $49M. Its legs were fantastic (3.06) which suggests that its sequel will open higher. Thus, I think Neighbors 2 will be first, CW second, and AB third.

So is $500 M domestic still on the table?

It would need a 2.79 multiple to break that barrier, so much better than IM3 (2.35) and AoU (2.40) and slightly better than CA (2.71) and TWS (2.73). If it drops 55% or more this weekend, then $500M is dead.

 

[spiderman2]

I know right? That is just absolutely INSANE. I went to the Chinese IMAX in Hollywood when TFA came out and the ONLY decent seat I could get was for a 5AM showing....and that was like a MONTH in advance. 200M in 5 days ain't nuthin' to sneeze at, but the TFA numbers are just bizarre.

I saw star wars 3 times and the second time I saw it I think the movie had been out for like 2.5 weeks and it was still really crowded there.

 

[Raiden]

I hope the Monday figure is a precursor of this weekend's figure as well. This movie is going to have great legs.

 

[KangConquers]

Here: It began opening places on Apr 27 and in the UK on Apr 29.



I think the reviews for Angry Birds probably will keep it under $40M but the early stuff for Neighbors 2 isn't awful. It is pretty close to the last one (73% on RT, average of 6.3) which opened to $49M. Its legs were fantastic (3.06) which suggests that its sequel will open higher. Thus, I think Neighbors 2 will be first, CW second, and AB third.



It would need a 2.79 multiple to break that barrier, so much better than IM3 (2.35) and AoU (2.40) and slightly better than CA (2.71) and TWS (2.73). If it drops 55% or more this weekend, then $500M is dead.

All right. So if it has "average" Captain America legs, it would do $486 M.

 

[InCali]

All right. So if it has "average" Captain America legs, it would do $486 M.

I'm sure Marvel could live with that number.....That means it would almost break even with the DOM box office alone. I think Disney doesn't really spend as much on advertising as some other studios do; meaning I think they pay themselves a lot of the time.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I'm sure Marvel could live with that number.....That means it would almost break even with the DOM box office alone. I think Disney doesn't really spend as much on advertising as some other studios do; meaning I think they pay themselves a lot of the time.

Disney reportedly spent $420M on Civil War ($250M production and the rest in marketing). They only take home about 53% of the domestic box office so they definitely aren't going to break even just from the US take (it would need to be nearly $800M). However, they should easily clear breakeven worldwide (probably ~$900M) by the end of its run.

 

[Iceman]

Disney reportedly spent $420M on Civil War ($250M production and the rest in marketing). They only take home about 53% of the domestic box office so they definitely aren't going to break even just from the US take (it would need to be nearly $800M). However, they should easily clear breakeven worldwide (probably ~$900M) by the end of its run.

I think he means they spend a fair proportion of their marketing budget on their own subsidiaries to do the marketing for them ie paying themselves. So it's not like paying a wholly different company.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

Is the budget really $250M? That would make it $80M more than TWS I don't understand why it would increase so much, the action in this was on a similar scale as the action in TWS which was smaller than the Avengers films. The only big action scene was the airport battle and even that one had some poor CGI which I initially attributed to a smaller budget.

Or is the cast really that expensive?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Or is the cast really that expensive?

Yup. That was what the big fight between Feige and Perlmutter was about. Feige won, and thanks be to the Lord.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Is the budget really $250M? That would make it $80M more than TWS I don't understand why it would increase so much, the action in this was on a similar scale as the action in TWS which was smaller than the Avengers films. The only big action scene was the airport battle and even that one had some poor CGI which I initially attributed to a smaller budget.

Or is the cast really that expensive?

I think the scale of CW is a bit bigger than TWS, but by far the biggest cost increase was the cast. RDJ reportedly was paid $40M upfront. Add in so many other characters and yeah, the budget starts going up pretty quickly (which is why Perlmutter was freaking out about it).

 

[johnboy3434]

CW projections based on Monday numbers...

Tuesday: $12.2M (-8.09%)
Wednesday: $9.8M (-19.8%)
Thursday: $8.86M (-9.59%)
OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $223M

Friday: $23.4M (+165%)
Saturday: $37.7M (+60.9%)
Sunday: $26M (-31%)
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $87.2M (-51.3%)

PROJECTED TEN-WEEK DOMESTIC: $518M (2.89x)

 

[third3ye]

Is the budget really $250M? That would make it $80M more than TWS I don't understand why it would increase so much, the action in this was on a similar scale as the action in TWS which was smaller than the Avengers films. The only big action scene was the airport battle and even that one had some poor CGI which I initially attributed to a smaller budget.

Or is the cast really that expensive?

Here's your answer:

 

[Gerontophobe]

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-box-office-money-monster-the-darkness-1201752570/

‘Captain America’ To Dominate Newcomers ‘Money Monster’ & ‘The Darkness’ – Box Office Preview

This weekend the box office will again be dominated by Captain America: Civil War, which should bring in an estimated $75 million to $80 million for Disney and Marvel. The film has grabbed more than $700M worldwide to date — $104.6M of that from China — and it’s not slowing down. Its Monday box office of $13.3M is right in line with the $13.2M grossed by Avengers: Age Of Ultron last year.

So Deadline is predicting a 55-60% drop. I think it might do a little better than that (53-54%) for about $84M.

 

[Kanon]

Disney reportedly spent $420M on Civil War ($250M production and the rest in marketing). They only take home about 53% of the domestic box office so they definitely aren't going to break even just from the US take (it would need to be nearly $800M). However, they should easily clear breakeven worldwide (probably ~$900M) by the end of its run.

I can't believe that Disney spent as much as WB on P&A for BvS (actually more, 170 vs 165). WB flooded the market with advertising, CW wasn't promoted like that

 

[InCali]

I think he means they spend a fair proportion of their marketing budget on their own subsidiaries to do the marketing for them ie paying themselves. So it's not like paying a wholly different company.

That's essentially what I was saying. If I own a company that owns a car manufacturer and a dealership and my company buys a car from that car dealership, WOW, I just spent 100K (in my dreams t: ). But, wait, I just sold a car, so now I've got 100K more than I did. All I really did was got a car for the cost of producing it. So, even if they did spend all of that money on ABC TV spots, did they really spend it?

EDIT: And that doesn't even include "creative" accounting....I'll bet they could lose money on CW if they needed to....

If I owned my own CGI company and paid a bunch of money for CGI, did I really spend it?

 

[StormC]

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-box-office-money-monster-the-darkness-1201752570/


So Deadline is predicting a 55-60% drop. I think it might do a little better than that (53-54%) for about $84M.

I'd like 500 million DOM or close to it so 55-60% drop would be kinda disappointing in that sense. Hopefully it's closer to 50% than 60.