Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[SomeOldGuy]

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-box-office-money-monster-the-darkness-1201752570/


So Deadline is predicting a 55-60% drop. I think it might do a little better than that (53-54%) for about $84M.

I think even 53-54 might be pessimistic. Here's the second weekend drops for every Marvel May movie:

AoU -59.4
IM2 -59.4
IM3 -58.4
Avengers -50.8
IM -48.1
Thor -47.2

So far (and yes it's just one day, Monday) CW is performing like the last three, not the first three. More data is needed but I see no reason to assume a 55% drop yet, much less a 60% one. Especially with minimal competition this weekend.

 

[Kanon]

That's essentially what I was saying. If I own a company that owns a car manufacturer and a dealership and my company buys a car from that car dealership, WOW, I just spent 100K (in my dreams t: ). But, wait, I just sold a car, so now I've got 100K more than I did. All I really did was got a car for the cost of producing it. So, even if they did spend all of that money on ABC TV spots, did they really spend it?

EDIT: And that doesn't even include "creative" accounting....I'll bet they could lose money on CW if they needed to....

If I owned my own CGI company and paid a bunch of money for CGI, did I really spend it?

Well, when you do that kind of stuff, you are buying cheap, but you are also selling cheap, so it goes both way. You sell a car, or create the CGI, for the cost and you have to pay the same money to you employees as if you were selling for a profit. It's great when money stays on the house, but the cash flow should be similar to the market value (unless you don't care favoring one company over the other, budget wise)

 

[ssj wolverine]

Here's your answer:

Well deserved. The man that started it all.

 

[InCali]

I think even 53-54 might be pessimistic. Here's the second weekend drops for every Marvel May movie:

AoU -59.4
IM2 -59.4
IM3 -58.4
Avengers -50.8
IM -48.1
Thor -47.2

So far (and yes it's just one day, Monday) CW is performing like the last three, not the first three. More data is needed but I see no reason to assume a 55% drop yet, much less a 60% one. Especially with minimal competition this weekend.

I wonder what Grace has to say about your words of heresy....

 

[third3ye]

I'm gonna wait to see Tuesday numbers before trying to guess at the 2nd weekend drop. Hard to say if Monday's $13m is because traffic shifted from Mother's Day, or if this is shaping up to perform like a AoU-plus in its 2nd weekend (which did $78m).

 

[grieven]

I'm looking at boxofficemojo's comparison between the big cbm's so far this year, and wondering why the Monday domestic drop was so much less for BvS and DP. Were their Mondays both some sort of US holiday?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=superhero2016.htm

 

[InCali]

Well, when you do that kind of stuff, you are buying cheap, but you are also selling cheap, so it goes both way. You sell a car, or create the CGI, for the cost and you have to pay the same money to you employees as if you were selling for a profit. It's great when money stays on the house, but the cash flow should be similar to the market value (unless you don't care favoring one company over the other, budget wise)

True, but the point is that it beats farming out to another company and, ultimately, doesn't cost as much. You're just paying your own employees and getting a service on the cheap.

All I'm saying is when you have as diverse a company as Disney, you have a definite leg up when it comes to the real cost of producing a movie (or practically anything else for that matter).

 

[InCali]

I'm looking at boxofficemojo's comparison between the big cbm's so far this year, and wondering why the Monday domestic drop was so much less for BvS and DP. Were their Mondays both some sort of US holiday?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=superhero2016.htm

Yes.

 

[grieven]

Yes.

I figured/hoped that was the case.

 

[Tilapia]

And a Disney stakeholder!

Stock tanked this quarter... 2000$ write off for me. **** you Iger, **** you ESPN, let's go Alice!

Unreal. Think I'm done with the MCU as well. Peace out folks.

 

[Chesterfield]

Bayh boi

 

[StormC]

What happened to cause Disney to screw up ESPN? I haven't really been following that.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

What happened to cause Disney to screw up ESPN? I haven't really been following that.

Nothing Disney's done really, there's just fewer espn/cable subscibers and more cord-cutters (like me) today. It's why Hulu is talking about a streaming package including espn now.

 

[Iceman]

Well, when you do that kind of stuff, you are buying cheap, but you are also selling cheap, so it goes both way. You sell a car, or create the CGI, for the cost and you have to pay the same money to you employees as if you were selling for a profit. It's great when money stays on the house, but the cash flow should be similar to the market value (unless you don't care favoring one company over the other, budget wise)

Even if you pay market rates you are generating business for your other companies that they might not otherwise have, or at least more than they would have.

 

[Tilapia]

It's over guys, they are going to sell off the MCU for liquidity. Get ready for The Snydvengers for PIV.

Iger is coming on CNBC right now if anybody cares.

 

[JB33]

It's over guys, they are going to sell off the MCU for liquidity. Get ready for The Snydvengers for PIV.

Iger is coming on CNBC right now if anybody cares.

What are you talking about???

 

[StormC]

Nothing Disney's done really, there's just fewer espn/cable subscibers and more cord-cutters (like me) today. It's why Hulu is talking about a streaming package including espn now.

That's what I figured. Sports entertainment is gonna have it rough going forward in the next couple of decades IMO.

 

[Tilapia]

What are you talking about???

I'm a bitter fanboy. Let me rant in peace.

 

[Endeavor]

I'm a bitter fanboy. Let me rant in peace.

Are you bitter about CW or ESPN or Disney stock?

 

[Kanon]

Even if you pay market rates you are generating business for your other companies that they might not otherwise have, or at least more than they would have.

That's my point. It's great that money stays in the house, it's just that it doesn't actually make the budget any lower

 

[third3ye]

Again, just shows the relative size of the studio business in the Disney empire, only 17% of Disney's revenue and 19% of operating income for fiscal year to date. Analysts only care about ESPN, TV subscribers, and to a lesser degree Staggs' departure. Iger basically had to remind the analysts that the studio was kicking serious butt this year after Q&A

 

[Chesterfield]

It's over guys, they are going to sell off the MCU for liquidity. Get ready for The Snydvengers for PIV.

Iger is coming on CNBC right now if anybody cares.

Maybe you should build a fire or sing a couple of songs or something. Try that.

 

[Tilapia]

Maybe you should build a fire or sing a couple of songs or something. Try that.

I need to stop investing on fanboy sentiment (not a fan of ESPN by any stretch but they will do enormous NBA Finals ratings this year) and actually do the homework. I thought the worst of ESPN was behind us. Ultimately the stock will get back to the level I had it, maybe by years end no less, but it's time to go back to the drawing board. You have to be actively intrigued in every aspect of a business before you invest in the company, which I was in this case to an extent, but mostly bad luck I suppose.

 

[Adder]

I think 55-60% drop in weekend 2 is likely.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Anything under 55% drop will go a long way to it getting to 500 mil domestic.