Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[JB33]

Any predictions for the monday number result tonight? I hope it lands between 11 & 12 milli. I want this movie to atleast get to 400 dom.

$400M domestic is something I feel safe to guarantee. If it had the exact same multiplier as Iron Man 3 it would end up with $420.7M domestic and I'm pretty sure this movie will have slightly better legs than that.

As far as its 2nd weekend, I'm hoping for $80M or over and a 55% drop, which is realistic, would get it just a tad over that ($80.6). That would be the 4th best 2nd weekend ever.

 

[Gerontophobe]

When I made my formal prediction a month ago, I conservatively predicted a $160M opening weekend (and finals of $425M domestically and $1.1B worldwide). I’m thrilled that the movie is crushing those numbers as I loved it. That CW cost as much as AoU is a little concerning, but in the end AoU was a few hundred million in the black, so Civil War should likewise make bank.

Immediately after watching CW, I thought the legs would be fantastic and in the ballpark of the 3.01 that Avengers earned. I now think that was a bit too optimistic as the general audience reaction, while very positive, isn’t Avengers-like. MCU films have ranged from 2.35X opening weekend (IM3) to 3.53X (GoTG). I (optimistically) think the legs will be ~2.85X, an improvement over the last two Captain America movies (2.71 and 2.75 respectively). With a $179M OW, that would mean a finish around $510M. However, if it is slightly less leggy (which seems fairly likely) it will end up short of $500M (2.79).

Regardless of exactly where it finishes, CW is yet another big win for Disney. I think Deadline is being really conservative in predicting a 60% drop next weekend (and a $450M final). While I don’t think a sub-50% drop is still in the cards, -55% seems more reasonable to me.

 

[Raiden]

I heard a rumor that a copy of this movie has leaked on the Internet. If that's true, I hope it won't affect the box office too much, but this news is still disappointing.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

When I made my formal prediction a month ago, I conservatively predicted a $160M opening weekend (and finals of $425M domestically and $1.1B worldwide). I’m thrilled that the movie is crushing those numbers as I loved it. That CW cost as much as AoU is a little concerning, but in the end AoU was a few hundred million in the black, so Civil War should likewise make bank.

Immediately after watching CW, I thought the legs would be fantastic and in the ballpark of the 3.01 that Avengers earned. I now think that was a bit too optimistic as the general audience reaction, while very positive, isn’t Avengers-like. MCU films have ranged from 2.35X opening weekend (IM3) to 3.53X (GoTG). I (optimistically) think the legs will be ~2.85X, an improvement over the last two Captain America movies (2.71 and 2.75 respectively). With a $179M OW, that would mean a finish around $510M. However, if it is slightly less leggy (which seems fairly likely) it will end up short of $500M (2.79).

Regardless of exactly where it finishes, CW is yet another big win for Disney. I think Deadline is being really conservative in predicting a 60% drop next weekend (and a $450M final). While I don’t think a sub-50% drop is still in the cards, -55% seems more reasonable to me.

Does a third weekend drop seem likely or is it 50/50 at this point?

 

[Shadow Moses]

I heard a rumor that a copy of this movie has leaked on the Internet. If that's true, I hope it won't affect the box office too much, but this news is still disappointing.

apparently very clean copy from animated gifs I've seen on forums

 

[LucDisfilm19]

It'll be interesting to see where Civil War's global box office ends up, because while it did perform just at Disney's expectations, it did surprise with a 12-day global total that is $22M ahead of Avengers 1 back in 2012. I'm thinking if it can still go leggy with hope and great audience reception, it may end up reaching the global level of the Avengers films, but, just to be CONSERVATIVE, I'm putting my predictions I've made before that Civil War will end up at $1.4 billion dollars and maybe topping Age of Ultron by a few million dollars.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I heard a rumor that a copy of this movie has leaked on the Internet. If that's true, I hope it won't affect the box office too much, but this news is still disappointing.

Looks like a telesync is up on the torrents. Doubt it will really affect the BO much though considering the audio on those are always out of sync so only people that really know what they are doing will know how to adjust that so it's not wonky the whole movie. I wouldn't be too worried about that bootleg, a cam is still a cam and most folks will want to see this in the theater. All that action in the first act would look horrible on a cam.

 

[spiderman2]

Considering the early reviews of XMA is quite mixed/ slightly negative I think XMA won't bite into CW's BO too much. Alice isn't a CBM so the competition between CW and Alice won't be as harsh as CW and XMA (would have been if XMA were good).

Btw I'm already dreading all the "Disney pay critics" threads over IMDB (I occasionally post there)

I had no idea that reviews had started to come out for xmen yet in till I saw this comment and I just went and looked and it is only at a 45% after just 29 reviews on RT not good. I am shocked from previews I thought it was going to be great like first class/DOFP quality. I am shocked and disappointed right now. So maybe xmen will not hurt cap so much then.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

apparently very clean copy from animated gifs I've seen on forums

Telesync, professional cam bootleg. Basically, a theater owner or worker gets paid off to do a special screening after hours so they can setup a cam on a tripod and they record the audio to an external source. But the audio is never right with it, you have to know how to adjust that stuff in VLC or other players and most folks have no clue about that. Cams really affect OW #'s, most folks who will be going this next weekend and beyond are going to want to watch a version with the audio all out of wack.

 

[grieven]

It's definitely a contender. Conventional wisdom right now is that it wins the summer.

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain...weekend-box-office-summer-records-1201750394/

I'm betting CW does win the summer box-office. Don't know about the winter releases however.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Guessing international legs is tough since one basically has to do each market (or at least region) individually. The top 20 markets for CW should make up about 80% of the gross so I put together realistic and optimistic legs for each. I had to guestimate OW numbers for India and Venezuela. My realistic/conservative legs have CW doing $675M in these markets which would correlate to ~$840M overseas. My optimistic legs have CW making $834M in the Top 20 for $1.04B OS. I would guess the truth lies somewhere in the middle, or about $900M.

Spoiler

Country: Realist; Optimistic
Argentina: $10M; $15M
Australia: $25M; $35M
Brazil: $45M; $60M
China: $175M; $225M
France: $25M; $30M
Germany: $25M; $30M
Hong Kong: $20M; $25M
India: $10M; $15M
Italy: $12M; $15M
Japan: $20M; $25M
Malaysia: $12M; $15M
Mexico: $55M; $65M
Philippines: $15M; $18M
Russia: $20M; $25M
Korea: $80M; $90M
Spain: $11M; $13M
Taiwan: $30M; $35M
Thailand: $15M; $18M
UK: $60M; $65M
Venezuela $10M; $15M
Total: $675M; $834M

 

[spiderman2]

What are the chances that CW will be the top grossing movie domestically and worldwide for 2016?

I think like 75% the only movie I think could make more is the star wars spin off but it is a spin off so I think it will make way way less then episode 8 did like half so around a billion maybe even less.

Yeah, ever since I saw the movie (and OW figures) 1.3 billion seems like a safe bet, but the worst case scenario is still worth talking about.

I'll be really curious if Homecoming can crack a billion with just Spidey and RDJ. Will be a good test for RDJ's star power.

I don't think it will because after the last 3 spiderman movie I think Marvel has to prove a good spiderman movie can be made again and I think there are a lot of people that are thinking reboot again really? Like I no its Marvel and not sony but I think had there been a amazing spider man 3 even if it had ended up being the best CBM of all time I don't think it would have been even close to a billion because spiderman has got to prove its self again. The last 3 spiderman movies have done a lot of damage.

 

[spiderman2]

Guessing international legs is tough since one basically has to do each market (or at least region) individually. The top 20 markets for CW should make up about 80% of the gross so I put together realistic and optimistic legs for each. I had to guestimate OW numbers for India and Venezuela. My realistic/conservative legs have CW doing $675M in these markets which would correlate to ~$840M overseas. My optimistic legs have CW making $834M in the Top 20 for $1.04B OS. I would guess the truth lies somewhere in the middle, or about $900M.

Spoiler

Country: Realist; Optimistic
Argentina: $10M; $15M
Australia: $25M; $35M
Brazil: $45M; $60M
China: $175M; $225M
France: $25M; $30M
Germany: $25M; $30M
Hong Kong: $20M; $25M
India: $10M; $15M
Italy: $12M; $15M
Japan: $20M; $25M
Malaysia: $12M; $15M
Mexico: $55M; $65M
Philippines: $15M; $18M
Russia: $20M; $25M
Korea: $80M; $90M
Spain: $11M; $13M
Taiwan: $30M; $35M
Thailand: $15M; $18M
UK: $60M; $65M
Venezuela $10M; $15M
Total: $675M; $834M

Interesting It sounds like this movie is doing less in china so far then AOU was doing when it came out. If that continues that may be the difference in it making a billion OS or not.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Does a third weekend drop seem likely or is it 50/50 at this point?

Will CW stay number 1 in its third weekend? I'll stick with what I said before release, that it is basically a tossup at this point. We'll have a much better idea after the second weekend since we'll know if it has good or great legs. I would guess at least 1 new pic (probably Neighbors 2, but possibly Angry Birds) will break out and cross $50M, thus topping CW. Regardless, it doesn't really matter how other films do. If CW is still doing $45-50M in its third weekend, it is holding very well. (BvS did $23M against The Boss).]

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Will CW stay number 1 in its third weekend? I'll stick with what I said before release, that it is basically a tossup at this point. We'll have a much better idea after the second weekend since we'll know if it has good or great legs. I would guess at least 1 new pic (probably Neighbors 2, but possibly Angry Birds) will break out and cross $50M, thus topping CW. Regardless, it doesn't really matter how other films do. If CW is still doing $45-50M in its third weekend, it is holding very well. (BvS did $23M against The Boss).

Well, since reviews for CW are far better than Angry Birds and Neighbors, it could be a three way tie for all three movies.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Interesting It sounds like this movie is doing less in china so far then AOU was doing when it came out. If that continues that may be the difference in it making a billion OS or not.

I would disagree with it making less than AOU in China, because according to Hollywood Reporter or Variety, it is the second hugest opening in China, only underneath Bay-formers 4.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Interesting It sounds like this movie is doing less in china so far then AOU was doing when it came out. If that continues that may be the difference in it making a billion OS or not.

Age of Ultron isn't a good comparison. It opened on a Tuesday and made $156M in its first six days. Civil War opened on a Friday and made $95M in its first three days ($105M in its first four). So yes, I would expect it may end up below AoU, but for a Captain America film it is doing very well and $200M+ seems likely.

I would disagree with it making less than AOU in China, because according to Hollywood Reporter or Variety, it is the second hugest opening in China, only underneath Bay-formers 4.

Releases in China are often on random days (e.g. AoU started on a Tuesday) so the "second highest Hollywood opening weekend" is pretty meaningless in China.

 

[gerrym51]

Age of Ultron opened with 156 million in china and ended with 240 million

CW opened with 95 million in china.


based on that i can't see CW getting much beyond 150 million in China

 

[spiderman2]

Age of Ultron isn't a good comparison. It opened on a Tuesday and made $156M in its first six days. Civil War opened on a Friday and made $95M in its first three days ($105M in its first four). So yes, I would expect it may end up below AoU, but for a Captain America film it is doing very well and $200M+ seems likely.



Releases in China are often on random days (e.g. AoU started on a Tuesday) so the "second highest Hollywood opening weekend" is pretty meaningless in China.

Oh ok I didn't know that just saw the comparison.

 

[spiderman2]

Age of Ultron opened with 156 million in china and ended with 240 million

CW opened with 95 million in china.


based on that i can't see CW getting much beyond 150 million in China

But shouldn't CW have better legs then AOU?

 

[gerrym51]

Box office mojo has AOU opening with 156 million. i cannot say any other than that.

However AOU had special sequences shot with major chinese stars incorporated into it for it's china release.

as far as i know CW does not.

 

[kedrell]

Had a 2.42X internal multiplier for this weekend IF you count the Thursday night $25m previews as part of Friday's total. Otherwise it's more like a 3.12X for this weekend. Comparative opening multipliers are:
with previews added|without previews added
CA:CW: 2.37X | 3.05X (2.42X | 3.12X*)estimates
BvS: 2.04X | 2.57X
DP: 2.80X | 3.46X**
IM3: 2.53X | 2.98X
A:AoU: 2.27X | 2.88X
JW: 2.55X | 2.99X
F7: 2.18X | 2.55X
SW:TFA: 2.08X | 3.07X

*Based on estimates. Actuals will undoubtedly change somewhat.

**By far the smallest OW on this list so bear that in mind. Mutlipliers tend to be higher the smaller an OW is.

SW:TFA had the biggest gap between the 2 sets of numbers indicating that it had the highest pent-up demand heading into it's OW. I mean seriously, you use the number with it's Thursday night previews and it's basically as frontloaded as BvS.

This bodes really well for CW's legs and WOM. The lower the 1st number is, the more anticipated and frontloaded a film was. The higher the 2nd number is, the better the WOM it had after people started to see it.

Edit: so based on the actuals there was a .05X dip from the estimates for the "with Thursday previews" and a .07X for the "without Thursday previews". It means this movie was slightly more anticipated than originally thought as well as the intensity of the WOM being slightly less than originally thought(I'm sure Mother's Day had an effect too). Still any internal multiplier over a 3X is really good and it kept that. IM3, it's nearest measuring stick had a 2.98X by comparison without Thursday previews. Factoring in as well that CW faced Mother's Day on it's OW while IM3 had it on it's 2nd weekend and this bodes well for some really good legs for CW.

 

[kedrell]

Box office mojo has AOU opening with 156 million. i cannot say any other than that.

However AOU had special sequences shot with major chinese stars incorporated into it for it's china release.

as far as i know CW does not.

I thought that was IM3 that had those, not AoU.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Box office mojo has AOU opening with 156 million. i cannot say any other than that.

However AOU had special sequences shot with major chinese stars incorporated into it for it's china release.

as far as i know CW does not.

The $156M is for the first six days as official weekend figures for AoU were never released.

I thought that was IM3 that had those, not AoU.

Correct. IM3 had Wang Xueqi with an expanded scene (along with Fan Bingbing) just for Chinese audiences. Claudia Kim, who appeared in AoU, is South Korean and definitely did not contribute to additional scenes for Chinese audiences.

 

[StormC]

One thing to remember is that the dollar has been going up for years. That means the exchange rates have been getting worse and studio get less $ back from overseas for the same tickets sold. So to surpass IM3 in overseas box office would require sellng substantially more tickets than it did.

If the dollar is getting stronger, wouldn't that mean foreign tickets cost more so more money is going to the studios? Sorry, I'm not following the train of thought here and exchange rate economics aren't my strong suit, so feel free to dumb it down if you have to.