Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[kedrell]

The stuff with established characters like the Avengers might have hit somewhat of a ceiling but I'd still say the lid is off when it comes to relatively unknown properties like Ant-Man or GotG or Doctor Strange, etc.(at least in their first outting or two) since understanding them requires much less knowledge of what has come before in the MCU.

 

[Kanon]

BoxOfficeMojo forecast

The Angry Birds Movie (3,932 theaters) - $43.69 M
Captain America: Civil War (4,226 theaters) - $36.32 M
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (3,384 theaters) - $35.53 M

Moving to what will soon be 2016's first $1 billion worldwide earner, a third weekend around $40+ million is what Captain America: Civil War is looking to beat if it hopes to hold on to the #1 spot. The film's daily performance as of late, however, finds it hewing closer to a 50-52% drop, similar to Iron Man 3's 50.7% third weekend dip and Avenger: Age of Ultron's 50% third weekend drop. Last weekend it pretty much matched Ultron's 59.4% sophomore drop which means a weekend around $36 million or a couple million better is your best bet.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4188&p=.htm

 

[Stark Bauer]

That prediction above seems spot on for CW. Not sure how true that will be for Angry Birds and Neighbours tho

 

[JKKS085]

It's really too bad that the film really didn't break out (I thought it really had a shot at being a monster success given the overall quality of the movie and the novelty of having Spider-Man join the MCU). It's all in all been a pretty boring run so far (in line with Age Of Ultron last year) and the last break out story in the MCU is still Guardians Of The Galaxy.

Of course after 13 movies not every single entry is going to break records but I think it's a little disappointing to have such an amazing movie barely fall in line with predictions. Even if the final numbers are going to be massive.

 

[Iceman]

I feel like we've actually hit the box office ceiling for MCU films. The first Avengers was a novelty and you didn't need to watch that many movies to know what was going on. This one, you had to have watched at least 3 other movies to have a prayer of truly understanding and enjoying what was going on. The further along the MCU goes, the more the audience niche is going to be solidified and less chance of a breakout at the box office. (I don't think Disney/Marvel is complaining, but the BO game is going to be a lot more predictable and boring. )

CW did everything right and it's still pretty frontloaded. I think it's just the nature of what it is (a Phase 3 MCU film), as well as the market now. To have a prayer of seeing this in real 2D IMAX, I had to go last night - my third viewing in a week and a half. Usually I like to space my viewings out more, but i had no choice. Alice Through the Looking Glass is going to take all of the 2D IMAX screens this weekend.

I remember when TDK was in IMAX for months and it was amazing. Boy, those were the good old days, huh? By the by, there were just as many people at the very last IMAX showing for TDK 5 months after release, as there was for CW last night after just 3 weeks.

I agree with all this, although I think Infinity War will give the real ceiling rather than a film which doesn't have Avengers in the name. Once we get the numbers for IW2 I don't see a future Marvel film significantly outdoing it plus inflation for a long time.

 

[samsnee]

It's really too bad that the film really didn't break out (I thought it really had a shot at being a monster success given the overall quality of the movie and the novelty of having Spider-Man join the MCU). It's all in all been a pretty boring run so far (in line with Age Of Ultron last year) and the last break out story in the MCU is still Guardians Of The Galaxy.

Of course after 13 movies not every single entry is going to break records but I think it's a little disappointing to have such an amazing movie barely fall in line with predictions. Even if the final numbers are going to be massive.

It just shows that these movies have reached a ceiling. The novelty factor is gone, but as long as they continue to consistently make well-reviewed, audience pleasing favorites, while watching the budget, they should be in a good financial situation.

 

[Nokio]

It just shows that these movies have reached a ceiling. The novelty factor is gone, but as long as they continue to consistently make well-reviewed, audience pleasing favorites, while watching the budget, they should be in a good financial situation.

I can't believe some of what I'm reading? CW has made a billion dollars and some are complaining its not successful enough? Are you freaking kidding me? Cap has reached a ceiling when on each one the take has gone up? The 1st made 4 hundred plus mil, then the 2nd made over 700 mil and now the 3rd has broke a billion and its something of a failure?

Yes these films have a ceiling if you wanna look for it because not everyone is a fan and they aren't universally loved. They have a big audience and i just don't see failure in Cap CW. Just because it didn't open to a 300 mil weekend and is about to hit 2 bil doesnt mean its underperforming. I guess its possible to find negativity in anything if you try hard enough

 

[Erzengel]

So when CW makes over $1B, it'd be only the 6th CBM to do so.

If it makes over $1.1B, it'd be the 4th highest CBM.

If it makes over $1.25, it'd be the 3rd highest CBM.

And the only other movies to be higher, would be both Avengers movies at $1.5B and $1.4B?

 

[Kanon]

So when CW makes over $1B, it'd be only the 6th CBM to do so.

If it makes over $1.1B, it'd be the 4th highest CBM.

If it makes over $1.25, it'd be the 3rd highest CBM.

And the only other movies to be higher, would be both Avengers movies at $1.5B and $1.4B?

And if it is 4th, all four would be movies featuring RDJr as Iron Man

 

[JOE]

I don't see this going much higher than 1.2 at this point.

 

[shinlyle]

I can't believe some of what I'm reading? CW has made a billion dollars and some are complaining its not successful enough? Are you freaking kidding me? Cap has reached a ceiling when on each one the take has gone up? The 1st made 4 hundred plus mil, then the 2nd made over 700 mil and now the 3rd has broke a billion and its something of a failure?

Yes these films have a ceiling if you wanna look for it because not everyone is a fan and they aren't universally loved. They have a big audience and i just don't see failure in Cap CW. Just because it didn't open to a 300 mil weekend and is about to hit 2 bil doesnt mean its underperforming. I guess its possible to find negativity in anything if you try hard enough

Preach it, man.
The movie was amazing, and made bank. It also did so while sandwiched between BvS and X-Men: Apocalypse. That's amazing. The fact that it broke a billion in less than 2 weeks makes it a success.
We live in a cynical age, man. Star Wars Episode 7 spoiled us all into thinking that, if a film in our nerd-sphere gets good reviews, it should be all anyone talks about for a month. Not always the case. So long as the movies are good and profitable, we should be thankful.

Now, next summer, when Spider-Man: Homecoming hits theaters, that's when I expect some records to get broken...or at least dinged up.
Cuz, you know...it's Spider-Man!!!

 

[samsnee]

I can't believe some of what I'm reading? CW has made a billion dollars and some are complaining its not successful enough? Are you freaking kidding me? Cap has reached a ceiling when on each one the take has gone up? The 1st made 4 hundred plus mil, then the 2nd made over 700 mil and now the 3rd has broke a billion and its something of a failure?

Yes these films have a ceiling if you wanna look for it because not everyone is a fan and they aren't universally loved. They have a big audience and i just don't see failure in Cap CW. Just because it didn't open to a 300 mil weekend and is about to hit 2 bil doesnt mean its underperforming. I guess its possible to find negativity in anything if you try hard enough

Where did I say this movie was a failure? I'm just saying that the idea that a new MCU will make as much as Avengers or more probably isn't realistic anymore. Even IW, which everyone is saying is the culmination of everything before, probably won't be higher than Avengers.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It just shows that these movies have reached a ceiling. The novelty factor is gone, but as long as they continue to consistently make well-reviewed, audience pleasing favorites, while watching the budget, they should be in a good financial situation.

Not saying the ceiling idea is wrong, but it may be a little premature to say. For CW it seems to me that some people (myself included) just got a bit out in front of the movie with hopes of a $200 million+ OW and an Avengers-challenging final gross, etc. So yeah, it's a bit disappointing that it didn't generate OMG numbers, but that's a personal reaction based on (over) expectations. By any objective measure CW is performing marvelously.

 

[Lilbaz]

Said it would be between $1bn-$1.1bn and i'll stick with that. Very good return.

 

[JKKS085]

Cap has reached a ceiling when on each one the take has gone up? The 1st made 4 hundred plus mil, then the 2nd made over 700 mil and now the 3rd has broke a billion and its something of a failure?

I'm seeing this more as Avengers 1 did 1.5b, Avengers 2 did 1.4b and Avengers 2.5 is going to land around 1.2b with so-so legs. Let's not pretend the movie hasn't been designed, budgeted and marketed as a big crossover movie event of the same magnitude as the Avengers. And lets not pretend that pre-realease expectation weren't for Civil War to actually outgross The Avengers (even if some analysts clearly got carried away).

But then again the "issue" here (if there is an issue and I gladfully admit that I am grasping at straws to find some negativity in the film's performance) doesn't have anything to do with CW not being a hit or even its projected profitability (even though it was a costly movie that's going to grant Marvel with a roi under both Avengers movies) but really Marvel's inability to recreate the perfect storm that lead to The Avengers' massive success. It just seems as if they are unable to reach past their (massive) fanbase and the more casual crowd that usually turns up for these films seems to be getting slimmer and slimmer film after film as the continuity gets increasingly more discriminating. Which doesn't make the prospects for Infinity War look all that great.

However I must say that successfully rebooting Spider-Man and getting people crazy excited for a Black Panther movie is probably the movie's greatest achievement and offsets quite a bit of the relative disappointment caused by its rather boring bo run.

 

[Ozbridge]

In foreign markets, CW is tracking slightly behind IM3:

On 1st OS weekend, IM3 made 198M, CW made 200M
By 2nd OS weekend (Chinese release) IM3 made 503M, CW made 494M (9M less than IM3)
By 3rd OS weekend IM3 made 664M, CW made 647M (17M less than IM3)

At this rate I don't think CW can break 800M OS. Around 1.2B WW is still not impossible though.

 

[gerrym51]

I'm seeing this more as Avengers 1 did 1.5b, Avengers 2 did 1.4b and Avengers 2.5 is going to land around 1.2b with so-so legs. Let's not pretend the movie hasn't been designed, budgeted and marketed as a big crossover movie event of the same magnitude as the Avengers. And lets not pretend that pre-realease expectation weren't for Civil War to actually outgross The Avengers (even if some analysts clearly got carried away).

But then again the "issue" here (if there is an issue and I gladfully admit that I am grasping at straws to find some negativity in the film's performance) doesn't have anything to do with CW not being a hit or even its projected profitability (even though it was a costly movie that's going to grant Marvel with a roi under both Avengers movies) but really Marvel's inability to recreate the perfect storm that lead to The Avengers' massive success. It just seems as if they are unable to reach past their (massive) fanbase and the more casual crowd that usually turns up for these films seems to be getting slimmer and slimmer film after film as the continuity gets increasingly more discriminating. Which doesn't make the prospects for Infinity War look all that great.

However I must say that successfully rebooting Spider-Man and getting people crazy excited for a Black Panther movie is probably the movie's greatest achievement and offsets quite a bit of the relative disappointment caused by its rather boring bo run.

the semi issue is that it's budget is avengers 3 NOT Cap 3

 

[gerrym51]

In foreign markets, CW is tracking slightly behind IM3:

On 1st OS weekend, IM3 made 198M, CW made 200M
By 2nd OS weekend (Chinese release) IM3 made 503M, CW made 494M (9M less than IM3)
By 3rd OS weekend IM3 made 664M, CW made 647M (17M less than IM3)

At this rate I don't think CW can break 800M OS. Around 1.2B WW is still not impossible though.

where is it going to get another 100 million overseas?

starting today only 13 percent of screens in China

 

[Chesterfield]

So when CW makes over $1B, it'd be only the 6th CBM to do so.

If it makes over $1.1B, it'd be the 4th highest CBM.

If it makes over $1.25, it'd be the 3rd highest CBM.

And the only other movies to be higher, would be both Avengers movies at $1.5B and $1.4B?

See, now you understand how clearly CW is a massive financial disappointment and a failure! #GetridofFeige

 

[Anita18]

Geez, I'm not saying it was a failure. Just trying to explain why people thinking it was gonna do TA1 numbers automatically, because of the reviews, had their expectations unfairly skewed for this film. Glowing reviews isn't gonna get non-MCU fans into theaters if they realize they have no idea who half the characters are.

 

[gerrym51]

See, now you understand how clearly CW is a massive financial disappointment and a failure! #GetridofFeige

its not a failure and it is a financial success.


i do see these things as some cb fatugue

 

[Ozbridge]

where is it going to get another 100 million overseas?

starting today only 13 percent of screens in China

Well I did NOT say that it was gonna get another 100 million OS? I said it would NOT break 800 million OS.

If you meant to ask about my 1.2 WW statement, let's say that CW can make 770 million OS (36 million less than IM3) and 430 million domestic, then it would be 1.2 billion WW. The domestic number is overly optimistic of course, but that's why I said it wouldn't be impossible for break 1.2 billion WW (I didn't say it was likely or had a high chance to do so)

Oh and in China I expect it to make 20 million more (IM3 made 24 million more in China after a 33 million 2nd weekend, CW made 32 million on its 2nd weekend, so I think 20 million for the rest of its run is quite fair).

the semi issue is that it's budget is avengers 3 NOT Cap 3

Yup.
The Avengers: budget 220M, BO 1.5B
IM3: budget 200M, BO 1.2B
AoU: budget 250M, BO 1.4B
CW: budget 250M, BO 1.2+ (hopefully)

Marvel is spending more money to get less money. Though it should be said that not all profit from CW is reflected in CW's BO, CW laid good foundation for Spider Man and Black Panther movies.

 

[Chesterfield]

its not a failure and it is a financial success.

I was joking.

 

[Zarex]

I watched CA:CW with a friend who had not seen any of the previous MCU films, and as we were discussing the film afterwards I realized how difficult it is for a newbie to pick up the series at this point in time. Nine films tie in directly to this one - it's like starting the Harry Potter movies with The Half Blood Prince. If there is a "Cap" (Tee Hee!) on this film's BO, this is probably why.

So while I love how Marvel has managed to maintain continuity through its films, a "refresh" of sorts is essential post Infinity War, if only to keep new viewers from being intimidated from picking up the films this far into the continuity. New characters, new series less reliant on the Avengers (Midnight Sons? Runaways? FF? Inhumans) will be essential in keeping the MCU viable.

 

[Chesterfield]

If I apply to an airline to become a pilot but have no flying experience and haven't studied aviation, I guess it's the airline's problem and not mine.