Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[samsnee]

Yeah Thor Ragnarok won't gross a billion but hopefully can get close.

 

[gerrym51]

Comic Book movies can still be very successful if their budgets can be kept under control.

The problem for disney/marvel is Robert Downey Jr.

If you pay an actor 75 million in a movie it makes total box office very important.

I think he is tremendous as Tony Stark-but i predict after infinity war 2 he will be gone

Unless he is willing to ameliorate his salary demands

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Despite Ike's assertion, I don't see this movie making this kind of money without RDJ.

 

[Iceman]

Comic Book movies can still be very successful if their budgets can be kept under control.

The problem for disney/marvel is Robert Downey Jr.

If you pay an actor 75 million in a movie it makes total box office very important.

I think he is tremendous as Tony Stark-but i predict after infinity war 2 he will be gone

Unless he is willing to ameliorate his salary demands

Looking at it another way, we want him to stay forever but when he does eventually go at least that salary burden goes with him. Can't imagine any replacement getting close to what he gets.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Congrats to Marvel Studios, the Russos and everyone involved with CW on reaching $1 BILLION!!'

 

[gerrym51]

Despite Ike's assertion, I don't see this movie making this kind of money without RDJ.

RDJ is going to leave sometime.

They will have a pause then re-boot the movies just like they do in the comic books.

they will make multifilm initial contracts and avoid what happened with RDJ.

He is tremendous but he does cause salary issues for both him and the other actors

 

[gogolbb]

Looking at it another way, we want him to stay forever but when he does eventually go at least that salary burden goes with him. Can't imagine any replacement getting close to what he gets.

The billion dollar box office goes with him too. I can't see where the silver lining is .

 

[gerrym51]

The billion dollar box office goes with him too. I can't see where the silver lining is .

why do you say that. Like everything else time passes and another generation of viewers have no idea or vague idea of somebody.

Comic Book movies are having a fatigue. I would point out RDJ was in CW but it's not getting close to 1.5 billion.

James Bond has been replaced 7 times. the world goes on.

 

[Spider-Ock]

What do y'all think the chances are for CW to outgross IM3? Right now, I think it will settle in at 410-415 M domestic and maybe 720-750 M overseas. That will put it approximately 50 M behind IM3. Of course, I am no expert so I could be wrong.

 

[InCali]

why do you say that. Like everything else time passes and another generation of viewers have no idea or vague idea of somebody.

Comic Book movies are having a fatigue. I would point out RDJ was in CW but it's not getting close to 1.5 billion.

James Bond has been replaced 7 times. the world goes on.

Yeah. It's the good old "The movie is barely going to make it into the all time WW box office top 10". Comic book fatigue is setting in!!! Zootopia barely made it into the top 30....arrgghhhh.....cartoon movie fatigue!!!

If a movie isn't well received, it's not going to make a ton of money. If it is, it probably will. Marvel isn't paying RDJ out of some sense of altruism; they are paying him big money because they think he brings people to the theaters. If Ike had his way, RDJ prolly wouldn't have been in CW and Cap 3 probably wouldn't be pulling in anywhere close to the money it is. You spend money to make money and If you can get well over a billion in BO returns on a 250M movie, everyone is happy. You can pick the 2 Avengers movies as comparables and someone else can pick the first 2 Cap movies as such.

RDJ is worth the money he gets paid as IM or they wouldn't give it to him. It's really as simple as that. As far salary issues, there are none. Everyone is making major bank. I seem to recall that RDJ was instrumental in getting the other MCU actors more $$$. If my recollection is correct, I doubt they're pissed at him. Let's not make up issues where there are none. Everything I've heard indicates all of the actors are very close and on very good terms with each other.

 

[InCali]

What do y'all think the chances are for CW to outgross IM3? Right now, I think it will settle in at 410-415 M domestic and maybe 720-750 M overseas. That will put it approximately 50 M behind IM3. Of course, I am no expert so I could be wrong.

I think it'll be close and that's a very satisfying neighborhood for Marvel to be in.

 

[gerrym51]

Yeah. It's the good old "The movie is barely going to make it into the all time WW box office top 10". Comic book fatigue is setting in!!! Zootopia barely made it into the top 30....arrgghhhh.....cartoon movie fatigue!!!

If a movie isn't well received, it's not going to make a ton of money. If it is, it probably will. Marvel isn't paying RDJ out of some sense of altruism; they are paying him big money because they think he brings people to the theaters. If Ike had his way, RDJ prolly wouldn't have been in CW and Cap 3 probably wouldn't be pulling in anywhere close to the money it is. You spend money to make money and If you can get well over a billion in BO returns on a 250M movie, everyone is happy. You can pick the 2 Avengers movies as comparables and someone else can pick the first 2 Cap movies as such.

RDJ is worth the money he gets paid as IM or they wouldn't give it to him. It's really as simple as that. As far salary issues, there are none. Everyone is making major bank. I seem to recall that RDJ was instrumental in getting the other MCU actors more $$$. If my recollection is correct, I doubt they're pissed at him. Let's not make up issues where there are none. Everything I've heard indicates all of the actors are very close and on very good terms with each other.

Human nature is human nature-lol. RDJ is tremendous as Tony Stark. He does have a lot of power. and consequently budget is high.We are talking about profits per investment.

if RDJ got say 25 million less perhaps some money could go to something else to improve a movie. I don't really know.

But time passes-people's memories fade and a new generation starts.

I wonder why Disney killed of 'Han Solo'. Harrison Fords 25 million was just going to go higher. Mark Hamill is far cheaper

 

[Raiden]

No Thor film will gross $Billion. Estimates and projections for these movies from fans are at ridiculous levels already.

Have you seen the news of Thor 3's cast? I won't rule out a billion if it's good.

 

[kedrell]

Thor Ragnarok doesn't need a billion $ to be successful. And if it only gets $900m then that would put the entire Thor trilogy at a cool $2 billion WW cume. Thor having a multi-billion $ franchise is good enough for me.

 

[kedrell]

Another thing is happening today. CW is going to pass TJB DOM. And they could both be passed BvS by weekend's end.

 

[Superhero 101]

Nice to see cap making a billion here's hope to 1.1 billion

 

[Captain Marvel]

I wonder why Disney killed of 'Han Solo'. Harrison Fords 25 million was just going to go higher. Mark Hamill is far cheaper

Nah. If Disney could, they would've brought back Han Solo for the entire new trilogy. They killed off Han Solo because Harrison Ford has wanted Han Solo to be killed off since Return of the Jedi, and part of the price for his return was for Han Solo to finally die. Why he hates the character and the franchise so much, I don't know, as it never limited his career the way it did Mark Hamill's, but oh well.

 

[Chesterfield]

Have you seen the news of Thor 3's cast? I won't rule out a billion if it's good.

You're dreaming. It could have the best cast ever and be the best film ever made and it still wouldn't make a $Billion.

 

[kedrell]

CW will pass Deadpool to become the top DOM grosser of the year next Friday, the 27th.

 

[Raiden]

Nah. If Disney could, they would've brought back Han Solo for the entire new trilogy. They killed off Han Solo because Harrison Ford has wanted Han Solo to be killed off since Return of the Jedi, and part of the price for his return was for Han Solo to finally die. Why he hates the character and the franchise so much, I don't know, as it never limited his career the way it did Mark Hamill's, but oh well.

Harrison Ford said he wanted Han Solo to die because he felt that it will complete his character's arc, but I don't buy that reason. The weird thing is, he wanted Han to die for the longest time and yet he wants to keep making Indiana Jones movies, and personally I always felt that Han > Indy, but that's just me.

 

[RoryTate]

You're dreaming. It could have the best cast ever and be the best film ever made and it still wouldn't make a $Billion.

Not too long ago, people would have been absolutely certain about a freaking Captain America movie never passing a billion, yet here we are. Given a good script and a TWS type reception, Thor: Ragnarok might surprise you. Still, I think it has some baggage with a mediocre/poor last movie (TDW), and also because Thor was terribly short-shifted in AoU there really isn't much buzz around his film. I doubt it will hit anywhere close to what CA:CW has.

 

[Erzengel]

If I had to make educated guess which upcoming CBM could score $1B or more?

Avengers IW 1 & 2
Spider-Man: Homecoming
JL 1 (Being generous)

And honestly, I'd put GOTG 2 over Ragnarok in terms of chances.

 

[gerrym51]

Not too long ago, people would have been absolutely certain about a freaking Captain America movie never passing a billion, yet here we are. Given a good script and a TWS type reception, Thor: Ragnarok might surprise you. Still, I think it has some baggage with a mediocre/poor last movie (TDW), and also because Thor was terribly short-shifted in AoU there really isn't much buzz around his film. I doubt it will hit anywhere close to what CA:CW has.

a talking intelligent Hulk and a thor/hulk/banner buddy movie will make this a billion dollar movie.

I read this stuff.

 

[JB33]

Although I'm on the side of reason (aka "Hey, this movie is making a ton of money and is absolutely NOT a failure, no matter which way you spin it") I would also say that it would be genuinely disappointing if this movie doesn't out-gross Iron Man 3.

Yes, the common denominator is RDJ's Tony Stark/Iron Man, but we're talking about a movie that was released 3 years ago, featured just him and didn't get as good reception as Civil War. Again, the film is past the point of failure. It's going to make $1B plus. I just think it would be odd, to put it midly, for it not to be able to out-gross IM3. People will flame me for this - and I'm NOT saying the genre is dying or anything! - but I think it would indicate a slightly diminishing audience. Which is fine, by the way. Absolutely no complaints.

Damn, I feel like I had to put a ton of disclaimers in there just so I don't get jumped.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

“Captain America” appears to be heading for a weekend in the $35 million to $37 million range for a decline of about 50% from its second session — the eighth-highest of all time at $72.6 million. Should that estimate hold, “Captain America” could match “Zootopia” for the 10th best third weekend at $37.1 million.

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/angry-birds-box-office-opening-beating-captain-america-1201779672/