Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Ozbridge]

If I apply to an airline to become a pilot but have no flying experience and haven't studied aviation, I guess it's the airline's problem and not mine.

Uhm... but I don't think that's the situation Marvel wants? They need new audience, not only fans who have seen a dozen movies they've made before (though movies about new character will attract new audience just fine)

But I totally agree with the idea that Marvel needs something fresh after Infinity War, which is probably what they're thinking about.

 

[Erzengel]

I feel like I'm "privileged" in a sense that I'm being rewarded because I've been with the MCU since the beginning.

I remember the video game series Mass Effect and through 3 games, all your decisions were suppose to effect the outcome of the game. Unfortunately, by the 3rd game, it was realized that the game was crafted in a way that someone who just started playing the 3rd game had the same experience as someone who was with it in the beginning. Further, the decisions you made in the previous games really didn't have any impact on the story.

It was very disappointing.

 

[Iceman]

I watched CA:CW with a friend who had not seen any of the previous MCU films, and as we were discussing the film afterwards I realized how difficult it is for a newbie to pick up the series at this point in time. Nine films tie in directly to this one - it's like starting the Harry Potter movies with The Half Blood Prince. If there is a "Cap" (Tee Hee!) on this film's BO, this is probably why.

So while I love how Marvel has managed to maintain continuity through its films, a "refresh" of sorts is essential post Infinity War, if only to keep new viewers from being intimidated from picking up the films this far into the continuity. New characters, new series less reliant on the Avengers (Midnight Sons? Runaways? FF? Inhumans) will be essential in keeping the MCU viable.

I don't know how new series helps that problem. They make the universe even more complicated. People can see Dr Strange without baggage but that just helps that individual film (which was never going to make anywhere near the cap anyway). Does adding Dr Strange make going back for a Cap 4 or an Avengers 4 any easier? I don't think having a cap is too much of a problem, as long as the cap is high enough. Maybe the first Avengers plus inflation and overseas expansion will (roughly) be the long term cap.

 

[Flint Marko]

I watched CA:CW with a friend who had not seen any of the previous MCU films, and as we were discussing the film afterwards I realized how difficult it is for a newbie to pick up the series at this point in time. Nine films tie in directly to this one - it's like starting the Harry Potter movies with The Half Blood Prince. If there is a "Cap" (Tee Hee!) on this film's BO, this is probably why.

So while I love how Marvel has managed to maintain continuity through its films, a "refresh" of sorts is essential post Infinity War, if only to keep new viewers from being intimidated from picking up the films this far into the continuity. New characters, new series less reliant on the Avengers (Midnight Sons? Runaways? FF? Inhumans) will be essential in keeping the MCU viable.

Agreed, and I think that their output going forward (apart from ensemble films) is going to be as accessible as most of the previous solo movies.
Did your friend enjoy the movie overall though?

 

[Zarex]

If I apply to an airline to become a pilot but have no flying experience and haven't studied aviation, I guess it's the airline's problem and not mine.

Most folks don't want homework prior to enjoying a tentpole popcorn film. If MCU films have a barrier to entry, fewer and fewer folks will be turning out to see them.

 

[JKKS085]

So while I love how Marvel has managed to maintain continuity through its films, a "refresh" of sorts is essential post Infinity War, if only to keep new viewers from being intimidated from picking up the films this far into the continuity. New characters, new series less reliant on the Avengers (Midnight Sons? Runaways? FF? Inhumans) will be essential in keeping the MCU viable.

Absolutely. That was a grip I had with former MCU films and how they sometime relied on cheap tricks to ignore/erase/move past from things that happened in previous films. Frankly, I love how Civil War feels like the culmination of what came before because it doesn't shy from exploring the depths of continuity and actually thrives on developing on the fallout and consequences of things previously introduced or hinted at in former MCU films. I think Marvel Studios changed the blockbuster landscape forever (just like Jaws and Star Wars introduced us to the blockbuster itself in the 70's) with the concept of a shared universe. Civil War is the prime example of how this concept isn't just a limitation anymore but can also serve as a potent way to improve movie storytelling.

That being said, there are limits to this idea. I don't think Marvel Studios will be toying with the idea of a reboot anytime soon but they are either (or should be) exploring the idea of some sort of clean slate to launch Phase 4, or at least have an entire Phase that would indeed be less reliant on previous storylines whilst pushing new characters front and center (even those introduced late in Phase 3 would do, if their origin movies are well received sequels will probably see a sizable boost) with a few new self-contained-ish properties (pretty much like GotG in Phase 2).

 

[Zarex]

Agreed, and I think that their output going forward (apart from ensemble films) is going to be as accessible as most of the previous solo movies.
Did your friend enjoy the movie overall though?

He liked it, but had quite a different viewing experience than I. So much of the film is built on those that precede it - "I can do this all day", "Hank Pym always said never trust a Stark", "To me she was Aunt Peggy", "My father made that shield!", "I know how much Bucky means to you", "Are we still friends?" - its awfully tough coming in cold. I tried to catch him up afterwards, but we both realized that was going to take an awfully long time.

 

[third3ye]

I watched CW with a friend who hasn't seen any of the previous MCU films (yeah I dunno why I'm friends with him ) and he was able to follow it fine and said it wasn't too confusing The overall plot is pretty straightforward and Cap and IM are iconic enough that the average person kinda knows who they are. My buddy had 2 or 3 questions after the movie but they were all about more minor plot points. Except for those that like to focus on the smallest details (the average viewer doesn't do that btw), I think most viewers new to the MCU should still be able to enjoy this film.

When A:IW2 comes out and outperforms all the previous MCU films, we're gonna look back on these concerns and laugh. For a major event film like that, I think a lot of viewers will actually make a bit of an effort to watch some of the prior films before going into the threequel, especially since older films like TA and AoU will likely be playing on cable already.

 

[Flint Marko]

He liked it, but had quite a different viewing experience than I. So much of the film is built on those that precede it - "I can do this all day", "Hank Pym always said never trust a Stark", "To me she was Aunt Peggy", "My father made that shield!", "I know how much Bucky means to you", "Are we still friends?" - its awfully tough coming in cold. I tried to catch him up afterwards, but we both realized that was going to take an awfully long time.

That's about what I would have guessed. I think Marvel movies can work for people who are going in cold as they are entertaining thrill rides, and the characters have permeated pop culture enough that the audience's overall familiarity with the brand is quite strong, but it is becoming somewhat insurmountable and they'll need to address it at some point if the continuity keeps thickening.
However I do recall reading that the Russo brothers said they don't mind making them not so user friendly in the future, so we'll see if they change course from that.

 

[samsnee]

I feel like I'm "privileged" in a sense that I'm being rewarded because I've been with the MCU since the beginning.

I remember the video game series Mass Effect and through 3 games, all your decisions were suppose to effect the outcome of the game. Unfortunately, by the 3rd game, it was realized that the game was crafted in a way that someone who just started playing the 3rd game had the same experience as someone who was with it in the beginning. Further, the decisions you made in the previous games really didn't have any impact on the story.

It was very disappointing.

Comics are all about the illusion of change.

 

[RoryTate]

I don't know if the viewer is required to watch all of the films to enjoy the current ones. I mean, when crossovers happened in the comics, I could still enjoy the story, without necessarily knowing all the current plot points of the other superheroes that were suddenly present. Just focusing on the characters I knew was usually enough, as long as they were given enough focus.

Say you're a viewer that only got out to see that strange GOTG film, and you liked it enough that you walk into Avengers: IW. Well, as long as Starlord and maybe some of the other Guardians have a decent amount of film time, and are important in the plot, then that can be a jumping off point for liking some other characters that you only recognize by name. (For example: Hey, this Hawkeye guy bantering with Peter is really funny...or something like that.)

The MCU will most certainly undergo a major transition after Phase 3 though. A lot of that will have to do with financial pressure and renegotiating actor's contracts I think, and not just the audience becoming limited or "capped".

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Looks like $3.7 million domestic Thursday and $5.3 million OS for a $991 million global tally going into today. Welcome to $1 billion today, Cap.

 

[Raiden]

Civil War is the 4th MCU movie that crosses the one billion mark. Congrats!

 

[Kanon]

Looks like $3.7 million domestic Thursday and $5.3 million OS for a $991 million global tally going into today. Welcome to $1 billion today, Cap.

That's a very good thursday, if the trend continues, it might win the weekend

 

[Erzengel]

So IM3 after 2 weeks was at $301.9M and CW is at $314.2M with domestic dailies higher.

Probably another $50M and at least at $1.05B WW prior to the release of Apocalypse next week.

 

[Iceman]

The billion is up? Awesome!

 

[The Caped Knight]

Civil War is the 4th MCU movie that crosses the one billion mark. Congrats!

Alright Cap! Way to Go
1. Marvel's The Avengers
2. Avengers: Age of Ultron
3. Iron Man 3
4. Captain America: Civil War

 

[Logan0327]

looks like angry birds has the weekend
http://deadline.com/2016/05/angry-birds-neighbors-2-the-nice-guys-weekend-box-office-1201760146/

 

[InCali]

Yup.
The Avengers: budget 220M, BO 1.5B
IM3: budget 200M, BO 1.2B
AoU: budget 250M, BO 1.4B
CW: budget 250M, BO 1.2+ (hopefully)

Marvel is spending more money to get less money. Though it should be said that not all profit from CW is reflected in CW's BO, CW laid good foundation for Spider Man and Black Panther movies.

I know, right? I think Feige needs to take a page out of WB's playbook and hire a good director who cares about the material if they are going to get back into the game.......

I like the fact that the movies set the stage for the future. I almost went through the roof when the credits clip way back when let us know the Avengers would Assemble.

 

[samsnee]

Alright Cap! Way to Go
1. Marvel's The Avengers
2. Avengers: Age of Ultron
3. Iron Man 3
4. Captain America: Civil War

Iron Man and Cap both have solo billion dollar movies (albeit Cap had some help from friends). Thor is pouting in the corner.

But let's not forget this nice quote from a certain director when Watchmen came out.

The Marvel universe has gone nuts; we’re going to have a fricking Captain America movie if we’re not careful

Good thing we weren't careful.

 

[InCali]

Iron Man and Cap both have solo billion dollar movies (albeit Cap had some help from friends). Thor is pouting in the corner.

But let's not forget this nice quote from a certain director when Watchmen came out.



Good thing we weren't careful.

Yeah, they're getting REALLY reckless. First CA, then Thor, then GotG, then AM, then DS, then BP, and then (gasp) a SH movie about a WOMAN!!!! What's the MCU coming to??? How could they be so irresponsible and, well, CRAZY????

 

[JB33]

Confirmed: $3.73M on Thursday
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Domestic: $314,276,153
Foreign: $676,700,000
Worldwide: $990,976,153


Indeed, the drop from Wednesday was very light. I was expecting a gross of just over $3M, if not even lower. My worldwide prediction of $993M going into the weekend was about $2M off but it made more domestically from Tuesday through Thursday than I expected. It's overseas where I over predicted.

We've been discussing the legs here in North America but I think the real discussion should be centered around the legs in foreign territories. That's where it's really performing lower than expected. A lot of us, including myself, thought an AoU like foreign cume was in the bag. Well, it looks like it won't even come close to $900M. I mean, $800M is looking like a stretch, considering Iron Man 3 barely crossed that mark and Civil War is tracking behind that movie. We'll have to see how it does overseas this weekend.

 

[Ozbridge]

I know, right? I think Feige needs to take a page out of WB's playbook and hire a good director who cares about the material if they are going to get back into the game.......

I actually think Marvel is doing alright with their directors and new characters (Ant Man, GotG, Spider Man, Black Panther), and I think that the solo movies will make decent money (decent by Marvel standard anyway). But for the team up movies they need to tighten budget more. I think they shouldn't increase budget more than 250M unless they are confident that the movies can make at least AoU money (and we now know that not all 250M movies can make AoU money). With the crowded schedule of Disney's blockbuster (animation, fairy tale live action, Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Pixar, Marvel) it's probably not a good idea to make increasing budget movies.

Iron Man and Cap both have solo billion dollar movies (albeit Cap had some help from friends). Thor is pouting in the corner.

The whole Thor trilogy is so inconsistent that I'm pretty sure Hemsworth won't be co-star in any movies after Infinity War. RDJ and Evens might still be co-lead or even have their solo movies though.

 

[warriorking]

Thor has been very profitable for Marvel and lets not forget he has his Third movie filming soon so I doubt he is pouting.
Ragnorak could very well be another Billion dollar movie...
Marvel has promised good things for his movie..

 

[Chesterfield]

No Thor film will gross $Billion. Estimates and projections for these movies from fans are at ridiculous levels already.