Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Webfoot Hero]

I'm... not sure I would want that money.

Money is already covered in drugs, blood, and other bodily fluids, so what's one more added on top?

 

[harryoscop]

Wat?

 

[Stark Bauer]

CW projections based on Tuesday numbers...

Wednesday: $11M (-19.8%)
Thursday: $9.98M (-9.59%)
OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $227M

Friday: $24.9M (+149%)
Saturday: $38.8M (+56%)
Sunday: $26.4M (-31.9%)
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $90.1M (-49.7%)

PROJECTED TEN-WEEK DOMESTIC: $525M (2.93x)

I think it will end up slightly above your prediction so like $530

 

[kedrell]

CW projections based on Tuesday numbers...

Wednesday: $11M (-19.8%)
Thursday: $9.98M (-9.59%)
OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $227M

Given that it's last 2 weekdays seem to averaging at 2.6% better than AoU my estimates assuming that continued average had it a couple million $ less than your guess with an opening week total of $225m. Basically it should make another $18.5-19m today and tomorrow. AoU did $9.4m on it's 1st Wednesday and a $8.6m on it's 1st Thursday. I'm guessing a $9.6-$10m today for CW and a $8.8-$9m for tomorrow's number.

I'm also guessing for an $85m 2nd weekend cume or a -52.5% drop. It should be right at $10m behind AoU heading into this weekend and will make up 3/4 of that deficit this next weekend and then clean up the rest by of on it's 3rd weekend at which time it should leave AoU behind in the dust and not look back.

I think the minimum we should expect DOM to close at is $475m(a 2.65X). I'd love for it to get a 3.0X multiplier and thus beat TDK but I'm trying to stay grounded here.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

That's about well safe enough for me as its between 50% and 55% of dropping. I'm thinking 54.5% drop. Is that safe enough?

I completely agree, I'm gonna PM you my bank info and need you to wire me several thousand dollars so I can take as many people to the movie as possible. Marvel thanks you for your service.

Money is already covered in drugs, blood, and other bodily fluids, so what's one more added on top?

Basically, all US bills have cocaine on them which I find hilarious and a little sad.

 

[Knight_SV]

what actually this Campea guy wanted by saying that BvS is the reason why CW didn't open in 200 million? is he a DC ******** podcaster?

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

So will this finish under IM3 WW total, right at the same amount or above it? I heard that the HD copy that leaked is causing some crazy drops...like in China. What is the final WW number? I'm guessing maybe 1.1 billion.

 

[Darkraid]

What is the ww total now?

 

[spiderman2]

So will this finish under IM3 WW total, right at the same amount or above it? I heard that the HD copy that leaked is causing some crazy drops...like in China. What is the final WW number? I'm guessing maybe 1.1 billion.

I think people are really over reacting to the whole leaked thing. I don't think many people probly even watch leaked stuff even if it is good because I think most of the places you find those things tend to have virus and I don't think most people would even know how to find them.

 

[spider-neil]

what actually this Campea guy wanted by saying that BvS is the reason why CW didn't open in 200 million? is he a DC ******** podcaster?

Campea loved CW.

 

[kedrell]

He might have a point in that having not just another giant superhero film but one with a very similar premise of hero vs hero come out and do poorly less than 2 months before CW came out might have cooled some of the GA on rushing out to see this quite as fast and that might have lessened the OW for CW.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

yeah, all Campea is saying in his podcast is that BvS being such a disappointment may have led to some of the GA holding off on CW opening weekend to wait to read the reviews and hear what friends who did see it had to say. I don't think there was $20 million worth of that but he's probably right some people did that. IMO a bigger factor was Mother's Day. CW dropped hard, more than 30%, Saturday to Sunday, which was way more than a movie with its kind of WOM should have. I chalk that up to holiday commitments. And I think a lot of those folks will catch up this weekend.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

yeah, all Campea is saying in his podcast is that BvS being such a disappointment may have led to some of the GA holding off on CW opening weekend to wait to read the reviews and hear what friends who did see it had to say. I don't think there was $20 million worth of that but he's probably right some people did that. IMO a bigger factor was Mother's Day. CW dropped hard, more than 30%, Saturday to Sunday, which was way more than a movie with its kind of WOM should have. I chalk that up to holiday commitments. And I think a lot of those folks will catch up this weekend.

Agreed.

 

[ciscostudent561]

yup
my boi saw it last night with his wife cause mother day weekend was packed

 

[JOE]

yeah, all Campea is saying in his podcast is that BvS being such a disappointment may have led to some of the GA holding off on CW opening weekend to wait to read the reviews and hear what friends who did see it had to say. I don't think there was $20 million worth of that but he's probably right some people did that. IMO a bigger factor was Mother's Day. CW dropped hard, more than 30%, Saturday to Sunday, which was way more than a movie with its kind of WOM should have. I chalk that up to holiday commitments. And I think a lot of those folks will catch up this weekend.

I don't buy that considering the embargo was lifted VERY early for this film. Reviews had been out for weeks before the domestic release. Campea is just stirring the pot.

 

[Erzengel]

I said this in another thread, not making $200M OW and not making $2B WW is not a sign of CBM fatigue or anything with this movie.

 

[kedrell]

I don't buy that considering the embargo was lifted VERY early for this film. Reviews had been out for weeks before the domestic release. Campea is just stirring the pot.

Yeah, but most GA don't start reading reviews that early. They're like uncommitted voters, they really don't pay attention until the very last bit and only then make up their minds. They don't let this stuff occupy much headspace for months and years prior like we do. They cross bridges when they come to them. They don't dwell on them afterwards or fret over them well in advance of even coming upon a new one.

 

[kedrell]

So this movie is making world wide around $30m a day currently. By that measure it should be right at or around $800m WW heading into this weekend and be somewhere between $950m-$1b after this weekend(probably closer to the lower number). Should definitely have crossed the $1b mark before the 3rd weekend hits. Should probably pass BvS DOM a week from Friday or possibly a day earlier. It'll either be 14 or 15 days to eclipse BvS.

 

[Endeavor]

Saw it again last night.
IMAX 3D, last showing.
The theater was at half capacity, which I thought was good considering the day of the week, time and price of admission.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah, but most GA don't start reading reviews that early. They're like uncommitted voters, they really don't pay attention until the very last bit and only then make up their minds. They don't let this stuff occupy much headspace for months and years prior like we do. They cross bridges when they come to them. They don't dwell on them afterwards or fret over them well in advance of even coming upon a new one.

Yup. For most people the conversation goes something like, hey, want to see a movie? Sure, what's playing? I dunno, let's see.

 

[SuperAl]

I think internationally the revenue totals will drop significantly. The quality of the leak that came out is a bit too good. It'll hurt repeat viewings in the US, i still think most people would see it in theaters the first time around.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I don't think I buy that pirating (even early, high-quality versions) will have much of an impact on the box office. Certainly a lot of people may watch them but would these individuals have gone to the theaters anyways? I tend to think not. Over a third of the US population (excluding infants) doesn't go to even one movie in any given year. Many others go only to one or two movies. Besides, all movies face piracy so the playing field is pretty even (rip quality aside).

 

[SuperAl]

I don't think I buy that pirating (even early, high-quality versions) will have much of an impact on the box office. Certainly a lot of people may watch them but would these individuals have gone to the theaters anyways? I tend to think not. Over a third of the US population (excluding infants) doesn't go to even one movie in any given year. Many others go only to one or two movies. Besides, all movies face piracy so the playing field is pretty even (rip quality aside).

Its the difference between going to the theater for a 2nd viewing or just watching it on your tv and enjoying it in your living room. Internationally its more prevalent than in the states i would imagine but it definitely has an impact otherwise studios would not be so angry about it.

 

[Erzengel]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya
$18.8M intl TUE for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar. Intl cume up to $531.6M incl $112.1M in China. $737.8M worldwide. About $950M by SUN.

 

[JOE]

Is 750M OS a lock yet?