Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Erzengel]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya
$28M global WED for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar. Dom: big 35% drop to $8.9M, $215.1M cume. Intl: $19.1M, $550.7M. Global at $765.8M.

 

[KangConquers]

He might have a point in that having not just another giant superhero film but one with a very similar premise of hero vs hero come out and do poorly less than 2 months before CW came out might have cooled some of the GA on rushing out to see this quite as fast and that might have lessened the OW for CW.

I really don't buy this.

Civil War had an A cinemascore, which means it was received by audiences relatively similar to AoU, to Avengers A+. Despite the critical discrepancy, this is playing like two similarly received movies.

While I think all of this gloom and doom about Civil War's international performance is just that, fan boys being fan boys, I think the harsh reality of Civil War's domestic performance is the lightning in the bottle scenario.

Avengers was the first time we saw the team assemble. It was the first time we saw a Hulk unhampered by budget constraints. The whole thing fresh, and had a zeitgeist to it that the second and third time out lacks.

It could just be that $450-500 M is where the general audiences interest level is for these characters. Maybe Infinity War will push the needle back up, but there's a chance that domestically, Avengers 1 was a peak that the MCU won't see again.

Truthfully, there's nothing wrong with making movies that do "disappointing box office" in the $1.2-1.4 B range, and "Only" break into the top 10-15 of all time domestically. I don't see sequels for Avatar, Jurassic World or The Force Awakens doing nearly what those films did either. The next big thing is always going to be something new.

 

[StormC]

An Avatar sequel would be lucky to make half of what the first movie made.

 

[Erzengel]

I do think there should be minimums now.

A spin off Star Wars movie. An Iron Man sequel. An Avengers sequel. A Batman sequel should at least make $1B.

 

[StormC]

Star Wars spin-offs being a guaranteed billion is pretty iffy when you consider how many SW movies there will be in the future and the GA being more invested in the characters/story than the universe.

 

[Erzengel]

It's still Star Wars. An exception all on it's own.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I think people are really over reacting to the whole leaked thing. I don't think many people probly even watch leaked stuff even if it is good because I think most of the places you find those things tend to have virus and I don't think most people would even know how to find them.

The only area that an HQ leak will really hurt the BO is if it gets out before it premieres and even then it's minimal for a good film. I can't remember which one of the Expendables it was but a leaked copy hit before it premiered and it decimated the BO of that film yet they still made enough to warrant another sequel.

I'm 32 and almost every person I know is familiar with how to torrent stuff. My generation grew up with Napster and Limewire so pirating is not something that is foreign to us. Hell, Google links to a wiki that gives you a step by step guide on how to torrent if you want to know. Also you only get viruses if you don't know what you're doing, it's as simple as looking at the comments for a file and if everyone says it's a virus then don't download it.

I don't think I buy that pirating (even early, high-quality versions) will have much of an impact on the box office. Certainly a lot of people may watch them but would these individuals have gone to the theaters anyways? I tend to think not. Over a third of the US population (excluding infants) doesn't go to even one movie in any given year. Many others go only to one or two movies. Besides, all movies face piracy so the playing field is pretty even (rip quality aside).

What most people don't want to admit about pirating is the majority of folks that watch pirated movies (cams or HQ rips) are poor people who more than likely couldn't afford to see the film any other way. There are entire mini-black markets in poor neighborhoods of people that do the bootleg movie side-hustle.

Its the difference between going to the theater for a 2nd viewing or just watching it on your tv and enjoying it in your living room. Internationally its more prevalent than in the states i would imagine but it definitely has an impact otherwise studios would not be so angry about it.

Now that can def be an impact on a film if an HQ rip gets out into the wild not long after the premiere. I know when Oscar season is upon us because I can download full HD movies that are either not even out yet or currently in the theaters. Happens every year like clockwork. Studios are notorious cheapskates though so I don't feel bad in any way when they whine about it because like I said the good majority of folks watching bootlegs around the world don't have the money to see it in the theaters anyway a lot of the times.

 

[gerrym51]

I think it's too soon to tell how this will turn out. won't really know until sunday.

However as must be pointed out MOST markets opened a week earlier than North America.

China and NA did open on same weekend.

The tendency here seems to compare this to BvS-however BvS opened everywhere the same day.

Wait until sunday before forming a permanent opinion.

It does seem to me though that CW is not performing as well as anticipated Both here and WW

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya
$28M global WED for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar. Dom: big 35% drop to $8.9M, $215.1M cume. Intl: $19.1M, $550.7M. Global at $765.8M.

Ooof. That's a tough drop domestically.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I think because Sunday was deflated, we got a high Monday and a high Tuesday due to discount Tuesdays. So I think the lower drop was expected. I was thinking 8 milli last night. Curious to see tonight's number. And Friday-Sunday should be interesting.

 

[Ozbridge]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya
$28M global WED for #CaptainAmericaCivilWar. Dom: big 35% drop to $8.9M, $215.1M cume. Intl: $19.1M, $550.7M. Global at $765.8M.

There've been 3 MCU movies with Tue-to-Wed drop more than 30%, Thor: TDW (32%), CA:TWS (31.1%) and Ant-Man (34.8%), though both CA:TWS and Ant-Man had considerable rise from Mon to Tue (12.2% and 22.6% respectively), so big drop in Wednesday is understandable.

 

[Iceman]

Oh wanted a better drop than that!

 

[ImSGirl95]

Ok ... so, here comes the question again. Is that good or bad? As in, will it make a billion

 

[StormC]

I think the day-to-day is not going to be a decent barometer until we get the second weekend. There's zero competition so its performance will be a good way to predict how the rest of the intake will go.

Ok ... so, here comes the question again. Is that good or bad? As in, will it make a billion

Billion's a lock, has been for a long time. I think the current question is whether it can beat Iron Man 3 (1.2B).

 

[ImSGirl95]

Billion's a lock, has been for a long time. I think the current question is whether it can beat Iron Man 3 (1.2B).

Тhe problem and my worry is that BvS was also a lock for 1 billion. At least no one was expecting it to do less.
And seeing that CA:CW is still so far away from the 900 million mark, I don't know when it will hit the billion mark ...

 

[StormC]

BVS not hitting a billion has to due with foreseeable circumstances (bad reviews + mediocre/bad WOM + a sequel to a movie that had so-so reception). It had a great OW then plummeted. CW has great reviews and good/great WOM, with the biggest box office draw in the business right now (RDJ as Iron Man). I think worst case scenario is 1-1.1B.

 

[ImSGirl95]

BVS not hitting a billion has to due with foreseeable circumstances (bad reviews + mediocre/bad WOM + a sequel to a movie that had so-so reception). It had a great OW then plummeted. CW has great reviews and good/great WOM, with the biggest box office draw in the business right now (RDJ as Iron Man). I think worst case scenario is 1-1.1B.

Amen!

 

[Raiden]

Тhe problem and my worry is that BvS was also a lock for 1 billion. At least no one was expecting it to do less.
And seeing that CA:CW is still so far away from the 900 million mark, I don't know when it will hit the billion mark ...

BVS will not gross a billion. It may reach 900 mil but not much more than that.

 

[StormC]

CW will overtake BVS's entire run by next week, and still have much better legs to boot. BVS is just notable for having some of the worst legs of a blockbuster in recent history.

 

[ImSGirl95]

BVS will not gross a billion. It may reach 900 mil but not much more than that.

lol I am aware of that.

 

[gerrym51]

I must point out that CW is at 550 million foreign today.

However MOST of its markets are going into the 3RD weekend. Basically only China is going into the second weekend. Most of CW's future foreign boxoffice will be just(but not all) China. As China goes is how foreign will go

 

[Bats123]

Just for comparisions, Deadpool did 8.6 and BvS did 8.1 on Wednesday, so 8.9 is not bad at all.

 

[TheVileOne]

Civil War should easily cross $1 billion worldwide. The question is can it beat the domestic and worldwide takes of Iron Man 3.

Iron Man 3 is the best box office performer for the MCU outside the Avengers films.

Do you guys think it can make over $400 million domestic?

 

[gerrym51]

Civil War should easily cross $1 billion worldwide. The question is can it beat the domestic and worldwide takes of Iron Man 3.

Iron Man 3 is the best box office performer for the MCU outside the Avengers films.

Do you guys think it can make over $400 million domestic?

you asked the question. I do not think it will make 400 million. I think it will be just short of it

 

[Erzengel]

Civil War should easily cross $1 billion worldwide. The question is can it beat the domestic and worldwide takes of Iron Man 3.

Iron Man 3 is the best box office performer for the MCU outside the Avengers films.

Do you guys think it can make over $400 million domestic?

If it makes $7M tomorrow and at least $80M this weekend that'll put it at over $300M. Then it should at least get to $400M.