Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[MessiahDecoy123]

CW is tracking ahead of IM3 so I'm not sure why it wouldn't hit 400 m.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Will it make good money during Memorial Day ?

 

[Erzengel]

That'll be it's 4th weekend. Ideally, $25 over the 4 day weekend would be great.

 

[Iceman]

CW is tracking ahead of IM3 so I'm not sure why it wouldn't hit 400 m.

Yeah. Would take something very unusual for that not to happen.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

It's current total is at just $100K short of $766M globally. By tomorrow, it should make $785-790M globally. By, then, it just needs $210-215M globally over the weekend to get past $1B globally. I think it has a shot to hit it.

 

[JB33]

I'm going to go with Gitesh Pandya's take on Civil War's final domestic gross: between $430M and $440M.

 

[JB33]

Yikes, just when we thought Civil War was tracking a bit ahead of Age of Ultron on weekdays it goes and has a drop like that from Tuesday to Wednesday. In comparison, AoU had a Tuesday to Wednesday drop of 28.3%, from $13.13M to $9.41M.

 

[TheVileOne]

I'm going to go with Gitesh Pandya's take on Civil War's final domestic gross: between $430M and $440M.

If that holds, that puts it at as the No. 3 box office domestic MCU film behind Avengers and Age of Ultron.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yikes, just when we thought Civil War was tracking a bit ahead of Age of Ultron on weekdays it goes and has a drop like that from Tuesday to Wednesday. In comparison, AoU had a Tuesday to Wednesday drop of 28.3%, from $13.13M to $9.41M.

I think expecting it to beat Age of Ultron was unrealistic, even if Disney sees that film as an under-performer.

At the end of the day, this is still a Captain America sequel, and this is the biggest Captain America movie of all time.

 

[johnboy3434]

CW projections based on Wednesday numbers...

Thursday: $8.12M (-9.59%)
OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $223M

Friday: $22.5M (+177%)
Saturday: $37M (+64.5%)
Sunday: $25.8M (-30.3%)
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $85.3M (-52.4%)

PROJECTED TEN-WEEK DOMESTIC TOTAL: $531M (2.97x)

 

[JtheDreamer]

I think expecting it to beat Age of Ultron was unrealistic, even if Disney sees that film as an under-performer.

At the end of the day, this is still a Captain America sequel, and this is the biggest Captain America movie of all time.

I wonder if we're having the same conversation if it were titled "Avengers: Civil War".

Essentially it's a movie with all the same Avenger team-up feel, except it's not Tony-centric. Instead it's both Steve/Tony-centric with two other predominant arcs in BP and Bucky.

So if we look at the big team-ups from a Box Office perspective, the total $ performance has been dropping from Avengers to AOU to CW. There's no shame in the money CW will make, but I think perhaps we're starting to see some limitation. That could change if Infinity War blows everyones minds.

 

[TheVileOne]

I dunno. With sequels, on many occasions there is always a law of diminishing returns. It goes as far back as Empire Strikes back. Not just that film, but even look at something like Spider-Man 2.

 

[TheVileOne]

CW projections based on Wednesday numbers...

Thursday: $8.12M (-9.59%)
OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $223M

Friday: $22.5M (+177%)
Saturday: $37M (+64.5%)
Sunday: $25.8M (-30.3%)
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $85.3M (-52.4%)

PROJECTED TEN-WEEK DOMESTIC TOTAL: $531M (2.97x)

I think expecting $531 million at this point is IMHO a little unrealistic. I mean, that's a huge number. Plus with all the other big movies coming out, to expect the film to make another $300+ million this summer seems unrealistic.

 

[Gerontophobe]

you asked the question. I do not think it will make 400 million. I think it will be just short of it

There is no way it doesn't top $400M. That would be a 2.23 multiplier, easily the worst in the MCU (IM3 currently has the worst, at 2.35). I think a reasonable expectation is a $450M final (2.51X OW, a little bit better than IM2) while there remains an outside chance at $500M (2.79), although if it falls much more than 50% this weekend then that is pretty much dead.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

There is no way it doesn't top $400M. That would be a 2.23 multiplier, easily the worst in the MCU (IM3 currently has the worst, at 2.35). I think a reasonable expectation is a $450M final (2.51X OW, a little bit better than IM2) while there remains an outside chance at $500M (2.79), although if it falls much more than 50% this weekend then that is pretty much dead.

Maybe, it'll get $500M if it gets some boost over Memorial Day weekend.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I dunno. With sequels, on many occasions there is always a law of diminishing returns. It goes as far back as Empire Strikes back. Not just that film, but even look at something like Spider-Man 2.

I hear you on that. It would appear Marvel is trying their hardest to buck that trend.

 

[Tymminator]

Maybe, it'll get $500M if it gets some boost over Memorial Day weekend.

I can see people choosing to go on Memorial Day.

Looking Glass and Apocolypse will open then, but I think the positive WOM Civil War has should still give it some business.

 

[Stark Bauer]

CW projections based on Wednesday numbers...

Thursday: $8.12M (-9.59%)
OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $223M

Friday: $22.5M (+177%)
Saturday: $37M (+64.5%)
Sunday: $25.8M (-30.3%)
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $85.3M (-52.4%)

PROJECTED TEN-WEEK DOMESTIC TOTAL: $531M (2.97x)

I love your optimism but I just calculated my own prediction plugging in the weekly numbers from IM3 and I came up with a gross domestic take of $430 M.

plug in TWS numbers you will get $489 M

It's a safe bet that CW will make at LEAST $440 M and at the most $500 M.

Ultimately, I see it falling somewhere between $470-490 M. So let's make that $480 M lol

 

[Raiden]

I hear you on that. It would appear Marvel is trying their hardest to buck that trend.

I believe they could. Infinity War is gonna break every record out there.

 

[Stark Bauer]

BOTTOM LINE: Civil War is going to beat Age of Ultron's $459 M total folks.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

I believe they could. Infinity War is gonna break every record out there.

This kind of expecations is what keeps people disappointed.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I believe they could. Infinity War is gonna break every record out there.

It won't be beating Star Wars 7 but it will beat every MCU record

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Alright, guys. The night is near its end. Starting tomorrow until late Sunday night, let's do our hardest to get Civil War to drop at 50% or less. I know I'll be doing my part in Saturday.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

BTW, Box Office Mojo is predicting a $77.5M second weekend for Civil War, while Screen Rant predicts $80.6M for its second weekend. Let's get it higher than those numbers.

 

[Solaire]

Is a billion a lock?