Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[kedrell]

$500m DOM is by no means a lock and never has been but it's not dead yet either. If the 2nd weekend is under $80m though, $500m DOM is dead. $1b WW was a lock after the DOM OW.

 

[Iceman]

That debate will die out in a few days as $1B is coming very soon.

 

[KangConquers]

$500m DOM is by no means a lock and never has been but it's not dead yet either. If the 2nd weekend is under $80m though, $500m DOM is dead. $1b WW was a lock after the DOM OW.

Why is this even a debate though? I think $800 M Foreign is a lock, and $500 M is in question, and everyone else sees the shoe on the other foot.

 

[JB33]

Civil War officially ended its first week with $223,329,078, which is the 9th biggest 7 day domestic gross of all time.

 

[Chesterfield]

Once this crosses a $Billion, a round if virtual beers are on me!

 

[johnboy3434]

Once this crosses a $Billion, a round if virtual beers are on me!

Sounds messy.

 

[Iceman]

Civil War officially ended its first week with $223,329,078, which is the 9th biggest 7 day domestic gross of all time.

4 films that fell well short of $500m are above it!

 

[JB33]

4 films that fell well short of $500m are above it!

Yep. This is why I'm not on the $500M domestic boat at all. I'd love it to reach that, but the legs would have to be at The Avengers level to do that. There's no way.

It should have a pretty strong 2nd weekend and rise back above a few of those films after this weekend. It's not a guarantee it hits $300M - it would have to have a 2nd weekend of around $77M or better - but if it does it would be only the 6th film in history to hit $300M domestic after 10 days. Of the 5 that have already done it, the top 4 reached $500M domestic, while Avengers: Age of Ultron did not ($459M).

 

[KangConquers]

At this point, I see Civil War almost perfectly splitting the difference between Iron Man 3 and Age of Ultron.

 

[JB33]

At this point, I see Civil War almost perfectly splitting the difference between Iron Man 3 and Age of Ultron.

That was pretty much my thought at the beginning, although I'll admit that in the days leading up to the domestic release I started thinking that Age of Ultron would be the floor. I guess I got caught up in all the hype and the predictions but before that I tagged this movie as "a bigger and better Iron Man 3".

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Early Friday projections have it on course for $77 million.

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-money-monster-1201774141/

 

[Maximum_Maximus]

Watching YouTube vids of John Campea and Armor Critic, I get a sense that CW's box office take isn't near its potential because it came on the heels of BvS which made a lot of people in GA lose faith in the superhero genre, if only for a bit. Had CW came out first it may have made $200 OW. Who knows? I am still happy with what it's made so far but part of me is thinking of what could've been.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Early Friday projections have it on course for $77 million.

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/captain-america-civil-war-box-office-money-monster-1201774141/

Well, let's see if we can prove them wrong. I'm gonna contribute tomorrow.

 

[Tilapia]

Watching YouTube vids of John Campea and Armor Critic, I get a sense that CW's box office take isn't near its potential because it came on the heels of BvS which made a lot of people in GA lose faith in the superhero genre, if only for a bit. Had CW came out first it may have made $200 OW. Who knows? I am still happy with what it's made so far but part of me is thinking of what could've been.

Campea reaching because his precious AMC wasn't at capacity like they've been in the past and he's still licking his wounds after another Snyder fail. Yes, superhero fatigue is an issue and yes it was a similar movie, but honestly, once you start adding ridiculous characters like the Maximoffs and Ant-Man and Vision, you are going to lose that casual viewer that was swayed by geeky friends, family, co-workers. Some of the material just isn't going to translate well on film for some people.

The film was fine, but it appears the MCU's peak was with The Avengers. It's never going to be at that level again. It's a shame because I felt CW would be the pinnacle in terms of popularity and accessibility, but the material stops being accessible once the gimmick of an ensemble slug fest filled with colorful characters has run its course.

And these are great, sustaining numbers. Infinity War is a lock for 2.5 to 3 billion depending on the overseas market share in a couple years time (I/II combined).

 

[Maximum_Maximus]

Campea reaching because his precious AMC wasn't at capacity like they've been in the past and he's still licking his wounds after another Snyder fail. Yes, superhero fatigue is an issue and yes it was a similar movie, but honestly, once you start adding ridiculous characters like the Maximoffs and Ant-Man and Vision, you are going to lose that casual viewer that was swayed by geeky friends, family, co-workers. Some of the material just isn't going to translate well on film for some people.

The film was fine, but it appears the MCU's peak was with The Avengers. It's never going to be at that level again. It's a shame because I felt CW would be the pinnacle in terms of popularity and accessibility, but the material stops being accessible once the gimmick of an ensemble slug fest filled with colorful characters has run its course.

And these are great, sustaining numbers. Infinity War is a lock for 2.5 to 3 billion depending on the overseas market share in a couple years time (I/II combined).

Marvel should take lesson from CW and avoid releasing IW so close to JL. Snyder will most likely screw up that movie just like the ones before, and no matter how good Infinity War Part I and II are it won't matter if the general audience is scared of watching another Snyder crap-fest and stayed away.

 

[Marvel]

Watching YouTube vids of John Campea and Armor Critic, I get a sense that CW's box office take isn't near its potential because it came on the heels of BvS which made a lot of people in GA lose faith in the superhero genre, if only for a bit. Had CW came out first it may have made $200 OW. Who knows? I am still happy with what it's made so far but part of me is thinking of what could've been.

BvS being awful didn't do anyone any favors. Yet, I think the overall concept itself was the muting factor and not a bad movie released a month ago. The entire concept of having two beloved characters (RDJ's Iron Man and Evans' Cap) beating the hell out of each other turned off a percentage of casual movie fans, especially the female crowd. That was always going to be the case.

Anyway, anyone pay to see it tonight (2nd Friday) and how were the crowds? I was very disappointed by the second weekend turn out at my local cinema. Surprisingly small turn out at the 6 PM hour showings here.

 

[warcam]

Well, let's see if we can prove them wrong. I'm gonna contribute tomorrow.

Have fun with that. I'm working a garage sale tomorrow.
Be that as it may....I don't think they'll cancel the rest of Phase 3 if the movie ONLY makes $77 million this weekend, or *gasp* $76 million.

 

[kedrell]

Yep. This is why I'm not on the $500M domestic boat at all. I'd love it to reach that, but the legs would have to be at The Avengers level to do that. There's no way.

Not quite Avengers level. But basically TDK level. Avengers made 43.3% of all the $ it would ever make inside it's 1st week. Among the top 20 opening weeks of all time, only SW: TFA did better %-wise with 41.7% of it's total DOM gross made inside it's opening week. I'm definitely not expecting that. TDK made 44.7% OW and that's right around what CW would need to crack $500m DOM. Not very likely but then the critical drubbing X-Men 8 is getting and how that will lower the competition is an unexpected variable. And CW already dealt with the hurdle of Mother's Day last weekend. Most MCU May films have it hit on their 2nd weekend so that is in CW's favor. We don't know how these and other variables will play out. It seems pretty clear to me though that CW will beat the 51% range that both AoU & IM3 were at for their opening weeks. CW should definitely score in the 40's %-wise which likely will be enough for it to beat AoU's DOM take.

FYI, BvS has the worst scoring on in this sense of the the top 70 opening weeks of all time...and it's at #11. 63.8% made on it's opening week.


Obviously for those who don't know, the lower the % the better it is.

 

[Lilbaz]

Avengers was something new. That had been built up, not sure why anyone would expect Civil War to match it. We've seen cap and iron man together already.
Ifinity War might match it though.

At the end of the day it has been a success and has made marvel a lot of money.

 

[KangConquers]

Avengers was something new. That had been built up, not sure why anyone would expect Civil War to match it. We've seen cap and iron man together already.
Ifinity War might match it though.

At the end of the day it has been a success and has made marvel a lot of money.

This. I guess I'm reminded of how no Harry Potter movie could quite match The Sorcerer's Stone until the Deathly Hallows 2. I'm not saying that Infinity War will blow the door off of Avengers to that degree, but I could see IW Part 2 topping Avengers $624 M domestic, and being the first Marvel movie to gross $1 Billion foreign.

 

[spider-neil]

I thought Spider-Man would ensure the movie out gross IM3. Ho hum.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Friday numbers looking between 19.5-19.8. I thought it would hit atleast 20-21 on Friday. Is this going to be the MCU's most front loaded film? Looking like it might experience the same % drop amount like Ultron in it's 2nd week. How much domestic now?

Oh well as long as the film gets to a billion I'm good.

 

[Vincanws]

A billion by Sunday, and it is outcrossing Iron Man 3 right now @ spider-neil

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Friday numbers looking between 19.5-19.8. I thought it would hit atleast 20-21 on Friday. Is this going to be the MCU's most front loaded film? Looking like it might experience the same % drop amount like Ultron in it's 2nd week. How much domestic now?

Oh well as long as the film gets to a billion I'm good.

Yeah, from a box-office-watchers' perspective, this got boring pretty fast. Was looking for a moment like it might break out but now seems like the usual big week 2 drop.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

What should be the second wkd drop be like compared to AOU?