Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Raiden]

Yeah, from a box-office-watchers' perspective, this got boring pretty fast. Was looking for a moment like it might break out but now seems like the usual big week 2 drop.

I'm not going to write off week 2 yet just because of the estimate. I believe the strong WOM will allow CW to beat the estimate and gross over 80 mil. We'll see.

 

[TheVileOne]

$500 million domestic for Civil War just sounds insane.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Been saying it from the beginning but 400 milli is all I think this can go. Low 400s. But if the projected drop stays I could see it barely passing 400 or worse case it falls short of 400. I don't like that projected drop over the weekend.

 

[Lilbaz]

I thought Spider-Man would ensure the movie out gross IM3. Ho hum.

I think anyone that was going to watch it because it had spidey in it were probably going to watch it anyway to see iron man and cap.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

What should be the second wkd drop be like compared to AOU?

About the same. AoU dropped 59.4% its second go-around.

 

[gerrym51]

I'm waiting for the 'well it still beat BvS by 200 million WW'. Which would actually be true-lol

 

[Chesterfield]

This film will and was always going to make an impressive amount of money but there are a number of people who made some seriously outrageous inflated overestimates ("inflestimate"). The proliferation of Marvel's brand and goodwill has been spectacular and CW is an incredibly amazing film...BUT it hasn't reached star wars phenomena levels just yet. Not even close. This is CW's second domestic saturday; people need to relax and stop needlessly instigating fear, disappointment and concern.

 

[Kanon]

Not a good drop, expected in huge OW movies. I think WOM is good, but after seeing the movie, I understand is not a feel good movie and WOM will not bring audiences in the way we expect.

It’s another Disney dominated weekend with The Jungle Book passing $300M domestically and Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War firmly in control in its second weekend as it, too, nears $300M. Team Cap and Team Iron Man will gross about $19.5M to $19.8M tonight for a three-day weekend estimated around $71M to $72M. That’s about a 60% drop. In comparison, Captain America: The Winter Soldier dropped 57% in its second weekend and Avengers: Age of Ultron dropped 59% while Iron Man 3 dropped 59%.

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-money-monsterthe-darkness-box-office-weekend-1201755869/

 

[Raiden]

Not a good drop, expected in huge OW movies. I think WOM is good, but after seeing the movie, I understand is not a feel good movie and WOM will not bring audiences in the way we expect.


http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-money-monsterthe-darkness-box-office-weekend-1201755869/

I think CW is clearly the ESB of the MCU, with the team splintered as the franchise moves toward Infinity War. But the ending is what gives CW the gravitas and the reason why I believe it's the best MCU movie ever.

 

[Kanon]

I think CW is clearly the ESB of the MCU, with the team splintered as the franchise moves toward Infinity War. But the ending is what gives CW the gravitas and the reason why I believe it's the best MCU movie ever.

Yeah, most likely is the best, but BoxOffice wise, it could be a though pill to swallow. Mostly because I can see regular folks rating the movie according to their satisfaction with the resolution ("it sucks, X should have won", "Everything is worst at the end")

 

[gerrym51]

I think Warner Bros. is still in business-lol

 

[First Avenger]

If Age of Ultron and Civil War taught us something,it's that we as fans should keep our expectations in-check when it comes to box office. Avengers was just something that I think Marvel can't replicate,not even with everyone and their mom being in Infinity War 2. As long as the movies are good I'm fine.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I think these numbers fall in line with Disney's original projections. Some of the box office blogs hyped up the projections.

 

[Chesterfield]

I think these numbers fall in line with Disney's original projections. Some of the box office blogs hyped up the projections.

As did the fans.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I'm gonna say final global predictions are $430M USA and $970M OS. I think OS will make up for its USA total.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I've brought this up before but with the relatively large second week drop the big MCU films seem to be following even more closely to the Harry Potter film series. Big openings but significant drops the following week.

That's not a bad thing but again MCU has evolved more into HP territory than Star Wars. The fans are there but it's only the fans now not just anyone.

I don't think IW will change that direction much.

 

[JB33]

I wasn't surprised at all with the film's opening weekend and was actually pretty happy with it, but I have to admit I'm pretty surprised at the predicted drop for its 2nd weekend. I really thought it would hold better than that. I was thinking between $77M and $81M.

Not a big deal, but it absolutely kills the notion of $500M domestic. I think we all inflated the effects of the good reviews and positive word of mouth.

 

[kedrell]

Been saying it from the beginning but 400 milli is all I think this can go. Low 400s. But if the projected drop stays I could see it barely passing 400 or worse case it falls short of 400. I don't like that projected drop over the weekend.

I still don't see how it could possibly fall short of $400m in any way. It would need the absolute worst legs of any MCU film to date to do that. IM3 currently has the worst legs and opened lower and still got to $409m.

 

[kedrell]

$500 million domestic for Civil War just sounds insane.

After that Friday number(unless there's a helluva rebound today and tomorrow...like a $35m Sat and a $25m Sun) yeah, $500m DOM just waved bye bye.

 

[kedrell]

I'm waiting for the 'well it still beat BvS by 200 million WW'. Which would actually be true-lol

That's already a lock.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I still don't see how it could possibly fall short of $400m in any way. It would need the absolute worst legs of any MCU film to date to do that. IM3 currently has the worst legs and opened lower and still got to $409m.

Well the 2nd week drop % could be bigger than IM3's even though it opened bigger. I'm hoping for a good Saturday and Sunday. Nothing confirmed but this film might just end up having worse legs...which is weird.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Been saying it from the beginning but 400 milli is all I think this can go. Low 400s. But if the projected drop stays I could see it barely passing 400 or worse case it falls short of 400. I don't like that projected drop over the weekend.

This is what happens when you become an annual thing. You start leveling off.

 

[Zant]

If Age of Ultron and Civil War taught us something,it's that we as fans should keep our expectations in-check when it comes to box office. Avengers was just something that I think Marvel can't replicate,not even with everyone and their mom being in Infinity War 2. As long as the movies are good I'm fine.

Yeah but will some folks and some box office sites learn their lesson. Box Office.com actually predicted 600 mil domestic finish for this film, lol. Thats borderline trolling. Watch them and some people predict 150 mil opening for Guardians next year.

Infinity wars part 2 not reaching 500 mill domestic should not surprise people at this point.

 

[Iceman]

Was expecting a slightly better hold given how good it was. Wonder what the drop would have been had it been terrible.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Was expecting a slightly better hold given how good it was. Wonder what the drop would have been had it been terrible.

I can't help but think that having a high-quality cut already floating around online isn't helping. I doubt it's a huge effect but might be shaving a percent or two off.