Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Kanon]

I can't help but think that having a high-quality cut already floating around online isn't helping. I doubt it's a huge effect but might be shaving a percent or two off.

It hurt repeat viewing. If you paid once already to see it, pirating to see it a second time doesn't feel as wrong. Also, the lesser experience is forgivable if you already experienced the full thing in theathers

 

[KangConquers]

I'm waiting for the 'well it still beat BvS by 200 million WW'. Which would actually be true-lol

This is going to beat BvS by probably $450 M.

 

[gerrym51]

This is going to beat BvS by probably $450 M.

I see 700 million overseas and 400 million domestically.

except for china and a few other small markets most markets are going into 3rd weekend.

1.1. billion

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Just saw Civil War again. Gets better each time I see it with friends. Going again with friends from my school on Tuesday. But, I'm not naming who they are.

 

[warcam]

Just saw Civil War again. Gets better each time I see it with friends. Going again with friends from my school on Tuesday. But, I'm not naming who they are.

Awww....at least give us their initials

 

[TheVileOne]

If Captain America: Civil War's drop is below 60 percent, that's pretty much a win for everybody. That tends to be the norm for these types of movies anyway since they are usually frontloaded. Also, $75 million is basically what the first Captain America movie made on its first opening weekend.

I'm just glad a Captain America movie is doing so much business. I have to be honest, I really felt Captain America was marginalized and mis-handled by Paramount in 2011. I feel like they were just going through the motions with the movie since all the releasing rights were going back to Disney and that was the last film on their contract. I feel The First Avenger could've done much better business had it been marketed better.

 

[KangConquers]

I see 700 million overseas and 400 million domestically.

except for china and a few other small markets most markets are going into 3rd weekend.

1.1. billion

Okay, maybe I overshot a bit, but I still think this has the legs to beat Iron Man 3's total.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

My final global box office prediction for Civil War $1.33B globally. $430M in the states and $900M overseas. At least it is likely to make its budget and marketing money back.

 

[StormC]

RDJ being Iron Man five years in a row will definitely affect his ability to guarantee money in the bank, I think. I wouldn't be surprised if assuming he has a fairly notable supporting role in Homecoming (lots of dialogue scenes + at least one action sequence in suit) + marketed/promoted heavily, that will be the first Iron Man movie since Avengers to not break a billion (and even if it does it will probably only barely scratch it, 1.1B tops).

I bet both IW movies will hover somewhere around 1.2-1.4B.

 

[gerrym51]

Okay, maybe I overshot a bit, but I still think this has the legs to beat Iron Man 3's total.

you could be correct.

I think a lot of people are looking at the totals like BvS because it was so recent. that of course started ALL markets on same day

Not realizing most(not all) CW overseas markets started one week earlier

 

[Nvmyprixgt]

If Captain America: Civil War's drop is below 60 percent, that's pretty much a win for everybody. That tends to be the norm for these types of movies anyway since they are usually frontloaded. Also, $75 million is basically what the first Captain America movie made on its first opening weekend.

I'm just glad a Captain America movie is doing so much business. I have to be honest, I really felt Captain America was marginalized and mis-handled by Paramount in 2011. I feel like they were just going through the motions with the movie since all the releasing rights were going back to Disney and that was the last film on their contract. I feel The First Avenger could've done much better business had it been marketed better.

If you think captain America is what is selling this movie you're out of your mind

 

[brandeezy89]

I can't help but think that having a high-quality cut already floating around online isn't helping. I doubt it's a huge effect but might be shaving a percent or two off.

Crazy how the HD-TC is already out, the BvS one just came out about 2 weeks ago

 

[SamWinchester]

My Prediction in late March was a 175 million OW a 89 percent Rotten Tomatoes score with 440 Domestic Gross with 1.2-1.3 billion world wide gross. I still think I have a chance to hit all of my predictions. I thought BVS being hated and Age of Ultron getting mixed reviews could hurt the OW box office slightly and felt if the name was Marvel's or Avengers Civil War it would make slightly more money. Marvel should be happy with anything from 1.1 to 1.3 billion. I am hoping it beats Ironman 3 domestic and worldwide gross which I think it will. I thought at the beginning of the year that BVS would do around 1.4 or 1.5 world wide if it was a good movie and that Civil War would do 1.3 billion which I knew would be a good movie based on the Russo Brothers work on Winter Soldier. The only other movie I can see out grossing Civil War this year is Rogue One and maybe a miracle lightning in the bottle ID4 2 if it can do like Jurassic World with the nostalgia factor .

 

[LucDisfilm19]

My Prediction in late March was a 175 million OW a 89 percent Rotten Tomatoes score with 440 Domestic Gross with 1.2-1.3 billion world wide gross. I still think I have a chance to hit all of my predictions. I thought BVS being hated and Age of Ultron getting mixed reviews could hurt the OW box office slightly and felt if the name was Marvel's or Avengers Civil War it would make slightly more money. Marvel should be happy with anything from 1.1 to 1.3 billion. I am hoping it bets Ironman 3 domestic and worldwide gross which I think it will. I thought at the beginning of the year that BVS would do around 1.4 or 1.5 world wide if it was a good movie and that Civil War would do 1.3 which I know would be a good movie based on Russo Brothers work on Winter Soldier.

Yeah. I'm thinking $1.315.6, just to help the MCU pass $10.4B WW for $800M WW for all 13 MCU films.

 

[Raiden]

I think the positive reviews for Civil War is going to help pave the way for Infinity War. I do think the mixed reactions to AOU might have hurt CW's box office a little bit, but I think the strong reception of CW along with Russo Bros. helming AOU will pay dividends down the road. And CW will gross over 1 billion when it's all said and done, and as we can see from this year ago, 1 billion is by no means guaranteed.

 

[Aejej]

If Captain America: Civil War's drop is below 60 percent, that's pretty much a win for everybody. That tends to be the norm for these types of movies anyway since they are usually frontloaded. Also, $75 million is basically what the first Captain America movie made on its first opening weekend.

Looks like 74%.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ps-74-still-tops-800m-worldwide/#6a2656c62698

 

[JB33]

Looks like 74%.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ps-74-still-tops-800m-worldwide/#6a2656c62698

That's the Friday to Friday drop. Phew, I thought that was a prediction for a 74% weekend drop. That would be terrible.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

It's entertaining to see Ajeje grasping for straws.

 

[Aejej]

It's entertaining to see Ajeje grasping for straws.

All I did was post SM's link because I follow him on Forbes.

Oh, yeah, you're one of those guys who's active in the BvS B.O. thread. Project much?

 

[Aejej]

That's the Friday to Friday drop. Phew, I thought that was a prediction for a 74% weekend drop. That would be terrible.

It's not that big of a deal. Scott's writing about the domestic drop, not overseas. It's making plenty of money.

 

[JB33]

It's not that big of a deal. Scott's writing about the domestic drop, not overseas. It's making plenty of money.

A 74% weekend drop would be a pretty big deal. Luckily, as I said, that figure is for the Friday to Friday drop. The drop for Avengers: Age of Ultron was similar between the 1st and 2nd Friday.

 

[Tilapia]

I apologize for my overblown predictions, not that anyone cares. I underestimated the Avengers brand, even though it's pretty much in line with Ultron in terms of legs. Might match or top it. I also didn't even factor in the BvS issue. Looks like a bit of burn out or franchise fatigue. Thankfully they are leaving it at this and are going to new characters.

I really don't know what's in store for Infinity Wars. The key should be making the transition from Stark/Rogers into the next generation of heroes and stories. Given how the film ended, it might be the Tony Stark show again to open up part I. As much as he is the selling point, you got to start making that transition while retaining bankability (some neologism for you box office aficionados).

 

[Kanon]

@ChinaBoxOffice: CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR earned est. $14.2M on Saturday. China's total stands at $145.4M.

http://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/731513012612411393/photo/1

 

[Erzengel]

Can this movie reach $200 in China?

Also, my theater was full when I saw CW today. Even the handicapped seats. Although, we have smaller theaters because all of the seats are recliners.

 

[Iceman]

I can't help but think that having a high-quality cut already floating around online isn't helping. I doubt it's a huge effect but might be shaving a percent or two off.

I really hope it's not that.