Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Nokio]

it breaks a billion but then it will be that crawl to 1.1 Billon. Most movies would die for these figures.

too many people are paralleling with BvS which launched ALL markets at the same time.

2/3 of CW were launched 1 week earlier.

i could be wrong but i just can't see where it gets another 260 million.

Well its at 940 and i would give it a least another 100-120 domestically and as for overseas another 200 mil a shouldnt be that big of a problem to reach. Then again maybe i dont know how to track thrack these things

Do you think releasing a film in every market is a bad thing?

 

[Erzengel]

How much more money is expected from China? I know movies usually go there for about a month.

 

[gerrym51]

Well its at 940 and i would give it a least another 100-120 domestically and as for overseas another 200 mil a shouldnt be that big of a problem to reach. Then again maybe i dont know how to track thrack these things

Do you think releasing a film in every market is a bad thing?

where do you get another 200 million overseas?

2/3 of markets in 4th weekend

1/3 in 3rd weekend

there is actually no difference in releasing all markets at same time or spreading them out.

there is a difference in how totals and future totals are perceived though.

BvS was all at same time and tou saw numbers.

CW had 2/3 of markets one week earlier. How it's totals were perceived was different.

it's still going to make at least 200 million more than BvS. but i don't see how it can do 300 more let alone 400 more

 

[kedrell]

My final global box office prediction for Civil War $1.33B globally. $430M in the states and $900M overseas. At least it is likely to make its budget and marketing money back.

I'm right there with you after this somewhat less than enthusiastic weekend drop, though I think you're a little low DOM and a little high WW. It should still at least do a 2.0X multiplier off this weekend's total(even average films manage a 2.0X all the time) which would be $145m left DOM to take it to around a $40m finish. It's just $55m shy of $700m OS right now. Just had an $84.2m OS weekend so let's give it a 2.0X there as well for around $170m left in the tank. Gives us a ballpark of around $315m left before it ends. It's basically at $941m right now WW so we're looking at a $1.256b finish or there about. Basically around Frozen's WW take. Of course better legs could let it earn more and get to that $1.33b you guessed but I wouldn't count on it. That's like an extra $75m WW.

 

[brandeezy89]

BvS only wishes they can hit the billion dollar mark even with a headstart,

What does BvS have to do with the question she asked? I don't get the point of throwing random shots at BvS, it's annoying to the point where we can't even talk about the movie at hand.

 

[Ozbridge]

Well its at 940 and i would give it a least another 100-120 domestically and as for overseas another 200 mil a shouldnt be that big of a problem to reach. Then again maybe i dont know how to track thrack these things

Do you think releasing a film in every market is a bad thing?

I'll compare CW with IM3 and CA:TWS because these 3 movies have the same releasing pattern in big foreign markets (weekend prior to US release: UK, South Korea, Mexico, France; release at the same weekend with US: China, Russia).

At the end of 2nd domestic weekend, or 3rd OS weekend,

CA:TWS made 317.7M, 70% OS total
IM3 made 664M, 82% OS total
CW makes 645M OS so far, so its OS total can range from 787M (645/82%) to 921M (645/70%) (unlikely).

Off topic a bit: last weekend Jungle Book dropped 44% because of CW (which is still an amazing hold) and this weekend it dropped 27.5%, which is its lowest drop so far; it's like CW had never been released.

 

[SamWinchester]

I'm right there with you after this somewhat less than enthusiastic weekend drop, though I think you're a little low DOM and a little high WW. It should still at least do a 2.0X multiplier off this weekend's total(even average films manage a 2.0X all the time) which would be $145m left DOM to take it to around a $40m finish. It's just $55m shy of $700m OS right now. Just had an $84.2m OS weekend so let's give it a 2.0X there as well for around $170m left in the tank. Gives us a ballpark of around $315m left before it ends. It's basically at $941m right now WW so we're looking at a $1.256b finish or there about. Basically around Frozen's WW take. Of course better legs could let it earn more and get to that $1.33b you guessed but I wouldn't count on it. That's like an extra $75m WW.

That is what I think the total world wide gross will land somewhere between 1.2 and 1.3 like you said 1.255b probably the most likely figure. I would love to see it match Age of Ultron 1.4 billion CW is a lot better movie and I didn't leave the movie disappointed like I did that movie. I think Domestic Gross low end 415 best case scenario 450. I do think Marvel/Disney should release the movie in the US at the same time as other countries. I know some people that had the bootleg copy on opening weekend. That is one thing I like what Warner Brothers did with BVS.

 

[gerrym51]

CW made 35 million in china 2nd weekend. it's total so far is 155 million.

It is the biggest overseas market and will be in it;s 3rd weekend

2/3 of markets are in 4th weekend.

I just don't see where all this overseas boxoffice in future

where is this movie getting the amounts it needs to make these predictions

 

[kedrell]

It's now clear that last Monday & Tuesday being bigger than they should have been was the overflow from a depressed Mother's Day Sunday. After that it went back to normal. $500m DOM is dead as a doornail. Catching AoU likely is as well. Both AoU & IM3 has a flat 50% drop on their 3rd weekend so expect the same for CW which would be a $36m 3rd weekend. If it follows IM3's weekdays then it'll be at $350m DOM after next weekend.

 

[kedrell]

That is what I think the total world wide gross will land somewhere between 1.2 and 1.3 like you said 1.255b probably the most likely figure. I would love to see it match Age of Ultron 1.4 billion CW is a lot better movie and I didn't leave the movie disappointed like I did that movie. I think Domestic Gross low end 415 best case scenario 450. I do think Marvel/Disney should release the movie in the US at the same time as other country. I know some people that had the bootleg copy on opening weekend. That is one thing I like what Warner Brothers did with BVS.

Disney might rethink their strategy on release dates after this bootleg fiasco. In the end that might end up costing this movie $100m WW off what it otherwise might have made.

 

[kedrell]

It's at $155m in China now after 2 weekends there. Still has the rest of it's 2nd week and then 2 more weeks after that before they pull it. Probably will finish around $200m there all told. Not as good as the $240m AoU did but still way better than the $121m IM3 got over there.

 

[kedrell]

CW made 35 million in china 2nd weekend. it's total so far is 155 million.

It is the biggest overseas market and will be in it;s 3rd weekend

2/3 of markets are in 4th weekend.

I just don't see where all this overseas boxoffice in future

where is this movie getting the amounts it needs to make these predictions

The general 2.0X rule applies. You generally just double whatever it's last weekend take was(DOM or OS, doesn't matter as shrinkage is pretty much the same everywhere). That gives around a $170m OS result for what's left. Should finish just over $800m OS.

 

[SamWinchester]

CW made 35 million in china 2nd weekend. it's total so far is 155 million.

It is the biggest overseas market and will be in it;s 3rd weekend

2/3 of markets are in 4th weekend.

I just don't see where all this overseas boxoffice in future

where is this movie getting the amounts it needs to make these predictions

The general 2.0X rule applies. You generally just double whatever it's last weekend take was(DOM or OS, doesn't matter as shrinkage is pretty much the same everywhere). That gives around a $170m OS result for what's left. Should finish just over $800m OS.

As Kedrell said I think it will get $800 OS and $400+ domestic that will get it to 1.2 billion which was my initial predication in late March. I knew it would not make Avengers type numbers. I though IM3 numbers would be the floor and Age of Ultron as the ceiling. The name of the movie even though it has Avengers in them. An analogy I like to use Rogue One will probably have Vader but it still is not going to make as much as Episode 7 or 8.

 

[gerrym51]

The general 2.0X rule applies. You generally just double whatever it's last weekend take was(DOM or OS, doesn't matter as shrinkage is pretty much the same everywhere). That gives around a $170m OS result for what's left. Should finish just over $800m OS.

As Kedrell said I think it will get $800 OS and $400+ domestic that will get it to 1.2 billion which was my initial predication in late March. I knew it would not make Avengers type numbers. I though IM3 numbers would be the floor and Age of Ultron as the ceiling. The name of the movie even though it has Avengers in them. An analogy I like to use Rogue One will probably have Vader but it still is not going to make as much as Episode 7 or 8.

if you were comparing apples to apples yes.

but although it did 81 million overseas over 1/2 that came from the 1/3 of markets that opened the same day as china.

if they all opened the same day i would agree

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Let's see if we can get Civil War to stay up at #1 next weekend with $43M or at least make a three way tie for all three films coming out next weekend: $43M each for Civil War, Angry Birds and Neighbors 2. Let's try it, guys. And, one advantage CW has that may help get it #1 for just one more weekend is that it still has IMAX showings unlike the other movies.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I'm gonna predict for a final WW total of $1.315B WW ($432M USA and $883M OS).

 

[Johnny-Oh]

Disney might rethink their strategy on release dates after this bootleg fiasco. In the end that might end up costing this movie $100m WW off what it otherwise might have made.

Definitely not THAT much, I think around $10-20M at most

 

[kedrell]

Definitely not THAT much, I think around $10-20M at most

Either way it's still just a fraction of what the total earned actually is. There's no way to know really. And not knowing is what makes it worse.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

There's no way the bootleg is going to cost the film $100 million.

 

[kedrell]

if you were comparing apples to apples yes.

but although it did 81 million overseas over 1/2 that came from the 1/3 of markets that opened the same day as china.

if they all opened the same day i would agree

If they are all shrinking at the same 2X rate(when you average them out) then how would it even matter which weekend # they are on? The only possible exception I see is China since they actively take the movie out of theaters after 4 weeks whether there was business left to do or not. But they're the only ones that do that and at the rate CW is going over there, it'd have been about at the end of it's business anyway right around that time it seems, so no big deal if they pull it at that point. The effect on the WW total will be miniscule.

 

[Raiden]

I think bootleg probably hurts CW's earnings, but it's still a small faction of moviegoers and WOM will help mask this discrepancy with repeated viewings from other crowd. But Disney should be more prepared in the future, especially when Infinity War comes out.

 

[kedrell]

There's no way the bootleg is going to cost the film $100 million.

Probably not, I was just spit-ballin'.

 

[kedrell]

Let's see if we can get Civil War to stay up at #1 next weekend with $43M or at least make a three way tie for all three films coming out next weekend: $43M each for Civil War, Angry Birds and Neighbors 2. Let's try it, guys. And, one advantage CW has that may help get it #1 for just one more weekend is that it still has IMAX showings unlike the other movies.

If CW follows it's brethren IM3 & AoU then it'll likely have a flat 50% drop next weekend resulting in a $36m weekend. IM3 had a $35m 3rd weekend and AoU had a $38m one. I'd love for this to suddenly sprout late legs and change the whole dynamic & score a +$40m 3rd weekend but I'll need some evidence to indicate that first. Lets see how the next 4 weekdays do. I'm predicting a $5.0m Mon, a $5.5m Tues, a $4.1m Wed & a $3.8 Thurs. Smack in the middle between AoU and IM3. $18.4m for the 4 weekdays. $314-315m heading into the weekend and around $350m after the 3rd weekend with around $80m give or take left to go.

 

[warcam]

Let's see if we can get Civil War to stay up at #1 next weekend with $43M or at least make a three way tie for all three films coming out next weekend: $43M each for Civil War, Angry Birds and Neighbors 2. Let's try it, guys. And, one advantage CW has that may help get it #1 for just one more weekend is that it still has IMAX showings unlike the other movies.

Just....stop.

 

[Tilapia]

I think I might watch Neighbors. Reviews are decent, first film was entertaining. It's going to do better business than I envisioned.