Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[SomeOldGuy]

I think it's just that it isn't a feel good movie, the bittersweet taste in mouths after seeing our heroes broken might have put off the GA

Yeah, that too. It's a Cap movie, and after three of them it's clear that Cap Movie Rule No. 1 is that Cap doesn't get a happy ending. All his movies are about him starting to find a place to fit in, only to have everything fall apart around him so that he's alone again at the end. Cap movies are the superhero equivalent of the rage comics' "forever alone" face.

That the Russos managed to keep that rule in place while making something resembling a summer popcorn superhero actioner, too, is mildly amazing. It doesn't always work, but the fact that it works any time at all is remarkable.

@Ozbridge: yup, Zoo and TJB have been box office eye-poppers. I suspect that any disappointment Disney may feel at CW "only" doing $1.1-1.2 billion will be more than offset by those two grossing a combined $1.8 billion+.

 

[Adder]

What's going on is obvious. It's the dreaded and long expected "SUPERHERO FATIGUE." The market is being flooded by too many of these films and we just came off one by another studio that was similar to CW and an epic disappointment to say the least which hurt the genre among general audiences. Other studios over saturating the market with bad films will be the death of this new CBM golden age. Too bad the next x men won't help.

 

[harryoscop]

****, Why do other Studios keep putting out CBMs that aren't Critic-friendly? it's hurting Marvel for christ sakes! Damn, Deadpool breathed new life into the genre and Civil War proved to be a critical darling.

Also, all of these subsequent 'Cinematic universes' (with the exception of DC) needs to get the **** out and stop copying Marvel. Maybe we're experiencing 'Shared universe' fatigue because of these dumb arses.

 

[gerrym51]

****, Why do other Studios keep putting out CBMs that aren't Critic-friendly? it's hurting Marvel for christ sakes! Damn, Deadpool breathed new life into the genre and Civil War proved to be a critical darling.

Also, all of these subsequent 'Cinematic universes' (with the exception of DC) needs to get the **** out and stop copying Marvel. Maybe we're experiencing 'Shared universe' fatigue because of these dumb arses.

the most ironic thing is marvel seemed to have copied BvS heroes fighting each other

although in all fairness-these plot lines in comic books have heroes fighting each other all the time.

 

[Delwin]

It's the dreaded and long expected "SUPERHERO FATIGUE."

Fully agree: AoU was weaker but it has still earned more money. Why? Because now we have much more superhero movies (and TV series) than few years ago. Within two months we have 3 big hits - it is too much.

 

[tjeepdrv]

I still think "superhero fatigue" is a strange theory. Surely these bad romantic comedies that come out each week will reach fatigue. Or these dramas that come out every week will reach fatigue. No? But 4 or 5 superhero movies a year? Whoa now, slow down!

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

As long as this hits 400mill dom I will be happy. Even if it ends up at 401 I'll be happy lol

 

[KINGTHANOS]

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

I still think "superhero fatigue" is a strange theory. Surely these bad romantic comedies that come out each week will reach fatigue. Or these dramas that come out every week will reach fatigue. No? But 4 or 5 superhero movies a year? Whoa now, slow down!

Right, there's a difference between the novelty wearing off and genuine genre fatigue. We're talking 2.5 billion and counting from the last 3 movies.

 

[Vincanws]

Will people stop talking about fatigue of CBM's? It's giving me fatigue. Boom cha..

 

[Johnny-Oh]

****, Why do other Studios keep putting out CBMs that aren't Critic-friendly? it's hurting Marvel for christ sakes! Damn, Deadpool breathed new life into the genre and Civil War proved to be a critical darling.

Also, all of these subsequent 'Cinematic universes' (with the exception of DC) needs to get the **** out and stop copying Marvel. Maybe we're experiencing 'Shared universe' fatigue because of these dumb arses.

Agreed, BvS did huge damage to people's perception of the genre.

 

[Docker2.0]

CA: CW hits $1B but people are talking about superhero fatigue! As long as the movies are fresh and good, people will see them. BvS had that chance and failed. CA at this moment is the highest grossing film WW this year. Geez!

 

[KINGTHANOS]

CA: CW hits $1B but people are talking about superhero fatigue! As long as the movies are fresh and good, people will see them. BvS had that chance and failed. CA at this moment is the highest grossing film WW this year. Geez!

This. All Marvel can worry about is continuing to make quality pictures, and the BO should always be there as long as they attain that.

 

[JB33]

CA: CW hits $1B but people are talking about superhero fatigue! As long as the movies are fresh and good, people will see them. BvS had that chance and failed. CA at this moment is the highest grossing film WW this year. Geez!

I really wish people would pay close attention to what's being discussed. Nobody's going over the top with the superhero fatigue thing (at least speaking for myself). We're commenting on the fact that, AL though it's far from a failure, the legs for Civil War are surprisingly underwhelming compared to Marvel's last two big May releases (AoU and IM3), especially when you consider CW's superior quality and critical reception.

Again, people are aware that this is still a huge, commercially successful movie. We get it. However, it's tracking to have a smaller 3rd weekend than even IM3, which is surprising and somewhat disappointing, at least for us box office gurus. This is a perfectly reasonable discussion.

 

[Reek]

As long as superhero fatigue is a topic of conversation, it's over the top.

Between CW, BvS and Deadpool, we're looking at nearly 3 billion when CW's run is done.

Add Suicide Squad and XM:A...

 

[JB33]

As long as superhero fatigue is a topic of conversation, it's over the top.

Between CW, BvS and Deadpool, we're looking at nearly 3 billion when CW's run is done.

Add Suicide Squad and XM:A...

Fair enough. Superhero fatigue wouldn't be the term I'd use anyway. I see it as the audience for these films diminishing somewhat. They're still obviously the gold standard for blockbuster movies (actually for me that title goes to Star Wars, but I digress) but the audience might be losing a small portion of the general audience.

Objectively, how else would you explain Civil War barely tracking ahead of IM3 (and quite possibly having an even SMALLER 3rd weekend)? To me it doesn't add up, unless there is something substantial the audience liked BETTER about IM3.

It is what is. Marvel will barely bat an eyelash over this and would have no reason to, but the numbers are right there, and that's what's being discussed. Not if this movie is a failure or not. That's insane.

 

[Docker2.0]

As long as superhero fatigue is a topic of conversation, it's over the top.

Between CW, BvS and Deadpool, we're looking at nearly 3 billion when CW's run is done.

Add Suicide Squad and XM:A...

Exactly! If BvS and CA:CW both fell under $1B, then I'd be worried but both opened great and are some of the top films this year. Sorry but as of right now, it's not a topic at all. As long as the movies are fresh(Xmen are not which is why I think it will underperform)it's the chicken little theory.

 

[JB33]

Exactly! If BvS and CA:CW both fell under $1B, then I'd be worried but both opened great and are some of the top films this year. Sorry but as of right now, it's not a topic at all. As long as the movies are fresh(Xmen are not which is why I think it will underperform)it's the chicken little theory.

How many times do I have to say it? That's not what's being discussed!

I'm speaking for myself though. Just forget the term superhero fatigue. I don't believe in that either, at least not yet. Not as long as Marvel keeps on producing quality movies.

 

[gerrym51]

Does everybody who posts about this actually gone to see it.

I always wait for a movie to come to PPV. I have not been to an actual theater since the first avengers movie.

 

[Erzengel]

I've seen CW twice.

 

[Spider-Ock]

Objectively, it may have a hard time beating the Domestic total of IM3 at the moment. With two big movies out next weekend, Civil War's Monday-Sunday totals could be approximately 24-26 mil. After that, its summer run depends a lot upon really good holds over the weekends and some kind of resurgence in interest with the GA. Combine that with the mostly static foreign box office and I do not see how it gets a lot above 1.1-1.130 Billion at this rate. That in no way is a disappointment. It may be just that superhero movies have indeed reached a level of fatigue with the audience.

 

[JB33]

Does everybody who posts about this actually gone to see it.

I always wait for a movie to come to PPV. I have not been to an actual theater since the first avengers movie.

I've seen it 4 times. The only movies I've seen that many times or more are The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and The Dark Knight. This movie just clicked with me. Loved it!

 

[Iceman]

Was expecting a bit more from that 3rd weekend.

 

[Spiderine]

Fair enough. Superhero fatigue wouldn't be the term I'd use anyway. I see it as the audience for these films diminishing somewhat. They're still obviously the gold standard for blockbuster movies (actually for me that title goes to Star Wars, but I digress) but the audience might be losing a small portion of the general audience.

Objectively, how else would you explain Civil War barely tracking ahead of IM3 (and quite possibly having an even SMALLER 3rd weekend)? To me it doesn't add up, unless there is something substantial the audience liked BETTER about IM3.

It is what is. Marvel will barely bat an eyelash over this and would have no reason to, but the numbers are right there, and that's what's being discussed. Not if this movie is a failure or not. That's insane.

I get what your saying man........and I think its a very good logical explanation. I wouldn't call anything fatigue either at this point and CW is a highly successful film nonetheless but as WB/DC and even FOX to an extent decide to join the shared universe party things will start to get a little crowded. Releasing absolutely bad films like FF and incoherent underwhelming big budget films like BvsS does little to help the overall market in the long run.

 

[Raiden]

Any chance CW can win its 3rd week?