Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Ctfxcwatcher]

$772,948 for Wednesday
$391,784,207 total domestic number.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Once that $400m is up that's my last remaining goal. Not long at all now!

My goal is that a movie introducing Black Panther, Spider-Man must beat a movie with a fake Mandarin

 

[Xrated48]

My goal is that a movie introducing Black Panther, Spider-Man must beat a movie with a fake Mandarin

Sadly it might not do that at least worldwide

 

[StormC]

My goal is that a movie introducing Black Panther, Spider-Man must beat a movie with a fake Mandarin

I think that ship sailed a while ago, unfortunately. I think we have to consider IM3 an outlier than part of a greater trend.

 

[See Cap Run]

Sadly it might not do that at least worldwide

But at least it has a decent chance to do so domestically. I was actually hoping it could make at least $421m domestically which would get it past the 2.35 multiplier of Iron Man 3 so it couldn't be said that it has the worst legs of all the MCU films, but that ship has sailed I think. Nonetheless, it's having a very impressive run being the 4th highest grossing CBM of all time worldwide (the top 3 above it also being MCU films) and the 5th highest grossing CBM of all time domestically, assuming it can surpass Iron Man 3.

Oh, another positive is that with Civil War being the highest grossing CBM of 2016, that means that Marvel Studios has released the highest grossing CBM every year both domestically and worldwide from 2010-2016. That's quite an impressive streak!

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

The way the box office has turned out so far this year, I'm really glad this movie is doing the numbers it's doing.

 

[Lilbaz]

My goal is that a movie introducing Black Panther, Spider-Man must beat a movie with a fake Mandarin

Unrealistic. Iron Man 3 came at the height of popularity for Iron Man and off the back of the Avengers. People have seen iron man, cap and spider man in numerous films now in quick succession. To do over $1bn is great.

Infinity War might match avengers numbers as it is the culmination of years of films.

 

[ironman_rick]

It looks like a 2 week wait to hit that $400M milestone.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

$772,941 for Thursday

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Wednesday and Thursday numbers are almost identical.

 

[StormC]

The way the box office has turned out so far this year, I'm really glad this movie is doing the numbers it's doing.

Yeah, this has not been a good year for the industry. The only billion dollar movie left is probably Rogue One (maybe Dory if WOM/reviews are excellent).

 

[third3ye]

Yeah, this has not been a good year for the industry. The only billion dollar movie left is probably Rogue One (maybe Dory if WOM/reviews are excellent).

No reason to believe Dory won't hit a billion as of right now, first reviews are up and currently 92% RT. The domestic industry has been fairly healthy actually, it's comping +3.5% YTD against 2015 (record year), it's just that the Mouse House has taken a huge chunk of the market share from other studios.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

No reason to believe Dory won't hit a billion as of right now. Also first reviews are up and currently 92% RT. The domestic industry has been fairly healthy actually, it's comping +3.5% YTD against 2015 (record year), it's just that the Mouse House has taken a huge chunk of the market share from other studios.

I think Disney has actually hurt some of their movies' overall gross by releasing many of them in such quick succession and underestimating how long the legs of the films would be.

 

[StormC]

No reason to believe Dory won't hit a billion as of right now, first reviews are up and currently 92% RT.

Damn, I had no idea reviews were already up. Still, we were all so sure this would surpass IM3, let's not count unhatched chickens and all that.

 

[Erzengel]

No reason to believe Dory won't hit a billion as of right now, first reviews are up and currently 92% RT. The domestic industry has been fairly healthy actually, it's comping +3.5% YTD against 2015 (record year), it's just that the Mouse House has taken a huge chunk of the market share from other studios.

I don't think it's going to be as well reviewed. Considering Nemo only had 2 negative reviews.

But I agree, between Marvel, Pixar, Live Action Remakes, Animated Movies and Star Wars, they don't even have to bother with any other movies.

Just this year, they could do over $5B WW with just CW, Finding Dory, Jungle Book, Zootopia and Rogue One.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Took in an estimated $1,176,491 for Friday

 

[KangConquers]

I don't think it's going to be as well reviewed. Considering Nemo only had 2 negative reviews.

But I agree, between Marvel, Pixar, Live Action Remakes, Animated Movies and Star Wars, they don't even have to bother with any other movies.

Just this year, they could do over $5B WW with just CW, Finding Dory, Jungle Book, Zootopia and Rogue One.

They will do closer to 6.5 B. Universal did $5.5 B last year, and Disney is light years beyond where they were in the same frame.

 

[T"Challa]

They will do closer to 6.5 B. Universal did $5.5 B last year, and Disney is light years beyond where they were in the same frame.

yep, lets not forget they still have the Dr Strange-Moana double header in November. those 2 movies could easily add another 1.5 bill if they're received well

 

[KangConquers]

yep, lets not forget they still have the Dr Strange-Moana double header in November. those 2 movies could easily add another 1.5 bill if they're received well

Disney is at $3.273 B worldwide off new releases alone. They did several hundred Million in Star Wars Episode VII Holds, and roughly $50-60 M worldwide in Good Dinosaur holds. Using some rough math based on the "Disney passed $1 B domestic, $3 B worldwide!" Articles from a month ago, their current number would be about $3.6 B.

The Disney releases still in theaters can probably do roughly a combined $75-100 M.
Finding Dory will do no less than $800 M, and could break $1 B.
The BFG is likely to underperform. I see roughly $300 M worldwide for that movie.
Pete's Dragon will probably underperform to a similar degree. Maybe $240 M WW?

So Disney will exit this summer at over $5 B. The two touchstone releases are question marks, though I would expect much from them.

Doctor Strange has a floor of $500 M, and probably a ceiling of $750 M.
Moana has roughly the same floor/ ceiling. For arguments sake, we'll say they do a combined $1.25 B.

And Rogue One will be a huge blockbuster. Not on the level of Episode VII, but I have no doubt it breaks $1 B, and it has a great chance of being Disney's biggest movie this year. Should do at least $800 M in this calendar year.

So we're looking at a Studio that will break $7 B, and go as high as $8 B when it's all said and done.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Took in an estimated $4,300,195 over the weekend. Domestic total now at 396,857,343

 

[Silver Surfer]

With the recent negativity around Rogue One, I'm leaning towards CW being the #1 highest grosser of the year. Still wouldn't bet on it, but still...

 

[JKKS085]

The theater count drop (-32%) hit it hard this week end. Too bad really because the film was actually recovering and showing better late legs.

 

[Chesterfield]

I think once CW reaches $400million domestic then everyone can collectively release a huge sigh of relief.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

How is this doing vs IM3 now? Is it still above it? And how by much?

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

With the recent negativity around Rogue One, I'm leaning towards CW being the #1 highest grosser of the year. Still wouldn't bet on it, but still...

Man I wouldn't be surprised if that movie under performs both critically and financially(from some expectations). I might be the only person but the teaser trailer did nothing for me. It's still gonna make it's money because it has to do with Star Wars I'm just not so sure it's gonna be a box office juggernaut like people expect.