Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Vincanws]

I think once CW reaches $400million domestic then everyone can collectively release a huge sigh of relief.

Not sure I really follow to be honest .. It's beyond sigh of relief territory some time ago.

 

[third3ye]

Man I wouldn't be surprised if that movie under performs both critically and financially(from some expectations). I might be the only person but the teaser trailer did nothing for me. It's still gonna make it's money because it has to do with Star Wars I'm just not so sure it's gonna be a box office juggernaut like people expect.

Too early to tell if the Rogue One reshoots are a bad thing or not, plus there's a ton of speculation out there as to the nature of the heavy reshoots. Ant-Man had a ton of preproduction drama and still overdelivered in the box office.

 

[Chesterfield]

Not sure I really follow to be honest .. It's beyond sigh of relief territory some time ago.

Definitely but $400 million domestic is a strong defensive landmark. Once CW reaches it is done expect pessimists to continue their jibber-jabber at how CW has somehow "underperformed".

 

[metaphysician]

Definitely but $400 million domestic is a strong defensive landmark. Once CW reaches it is done expect pessimists to continue their jibber-jabber at how CW has somehow "underperformed".

Hah. You are way too optimistic. Even in the scenario where people stop talking about CW "underperforming", they will just switch to talking about some other imagined flaw.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

Is anyone expecting this to outdo Iron Man 3?

I haven't been paying attention.

 

[InCali]

Is anyone expecting this to outdo Iron Man 3?

I haven't been paying attention.

It's about 2.5M ahead and for awhile, it looked like CW was doing slightly better in the dailies, but now it seems clear that IM 3 is doing slightly better. SO, it'll prolly be fairly close, but one thing confused me. In BOM, it looks like IM3 finished in the 406M range (looking at the dailies), but when you look at the DOM totals, it's in the 409M range and there doesn't appear to have been a re-release. Either BOM isn't listing all the dailies or something is really weird. Not sure what happened.

 

[Ozbridge]

It's about 2.5M ahead and for awhile, it looked like CW was doing slightly better in the dailies, but now it seems clear that IM 3 is doing slightly better. SO, it'll prolly be fairly close, but one thing confused me. In BOM, it looks like IM3 finished in the 406M range (looking at the dailies), but when you look at the DOM totals, it's in the 409M range and there doesn't appear to have been a re-release. Either BOM isn't listing all the dailies or something is really weird. Not sure what happened.

Probably BOM stopped reporting daily box office (on Jul 11 2013) because the studio stopped announcing BO, though IM3 was in theater till Sep 12. We can still track loosely IM3 BO by looking at weekend and weekly number in the site.

 

[InCali]

Probably BOM stopped reporting daily box office (on Jul 11 2013) because the studio stopped announcing BO, though IM3 was in theater till Sep 12. We can still track loosely IM3 BO by looking at weekend and weekly number in the site.

Makes sense. When the BO #s get too low, what's the point? I've heard people say that the $ theaters can add 2 or 3M to the final BO #s and something along those lines seems as likely as anything.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

It's about 2.5M ahead and for awhile, it looked like CW was doing slightly better in the dailies, but now it seems clear that IM 3 is doing slightly better. SO, it'll prolly be fairly close, but one thing confused me. In BOM, it looks like IM3 finished in the 406M range (looking at the dailies), but when you look at the DOM totals, it's in the 409M range and there doesn't appear to have been a re-release. Either BOM isn't listing all the dailies or something is really weird. Not sure what happened.

Oh I guess I meant world wide.

But yeah, thats pretty exciting either way.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

$484,771 for Monday. Should be hitting 400 Dom this week.

 

[InCali]

Oh I guess I meant world wide.

But yeah, thats pretty exciting either way.

No way it passes IM3 WW.

 

[InCali]

$484,771 for Monday. Should be hitting 400 Dom this week.

Probably early on Saturday. Probably be in the neighborhood of 2M ahead of IM3 at that point.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

$636,173 for Tuesday

 

[Bruce Malone]

Definitely but $400 million domestic is a strong defensive landmark. Once CW reaches it is done expect pessimists to continue their jibber-jabber at how CW has somehow "underperformed".

It will only "under-perform" because of how overly hyped some here were about its box office potential.

I was practically called out for low-balling by saying it would "only" make as much as IM3 and now it may not actually match it.

I always thought IM3 and not Avengers 1 and beyond was its box office roof.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

If CW passes IM3 domestically, does it strengthen the theory that the Captain America brand has a lower overseas ceiling than non US-themed properties?

 

[third3ye]

If CW passes IM3 domestically, does it strengthen the theory that the Captain America brand has a lower overseas ceiling than non US-themed properties?

No, I think it just shows only Iron Man has a higher OS ceiling and Cap is easily the 2nd most popular character in the Avengers franchise right now. I don't expect any of the non-Avenger Phase 3 films to beat CW, which includes the likes of Spidey, Thor, and GotG, and none of these feature a heavily US patriotic character. If anything I think it just shows how much stronger and more widely appealing the Captain America brand is today compared to when TFA was released, with a lot of help from the massive strength of the Marvel and Avengers brands.

 

[InCali]

No, I think it just shows only Iron Man has a higher OS ceiling and Cap is easily the 2nd most popular character in the Avengers franchise right now. I don't expect any of the non-Avenger Phase 3 films to beat CW, which includes the likes of Spidey, Thor, and GotG, and none of these feature a heavily US patriotic character. If anything I think it just shows how much stronger and more widely appealing the Captain America brand is today compared to when TFA was released, with a lot of help from the massive strength of the Marvel and Avengers brands.

I think it's pretty clear that Captain America doesn't play well in some countries. CW was definitely helped by the ensemble casting.

 

[Erzengel]

Looks like by the end of today, CW can be at $399 which means the end of Saturday, it will be at $400.

 

[InCali]

Looks like by the end of today, CW can be at $399 which means the end of Saturday, it will be at $400.

That's about what I figured.

EDIT: Actually it will be pretty early Saturday. The dailies have been a little above what I thought they'd be.

 

[Iceman]

Soon will be finally time to throw the $400m party! Still strange that with all these big guns, Deadpool wasn't really all that far off domestically.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

548,482 for Wednesday. Can't wait for the 400 dom party lol

 

[third3ye]

I think it's pretty clear that Captain America doesn't play well in some countries. CW was definitely helped by the ensemble casting.

True but I also don't think Cap being such a strong US themed character gives it a lower OS ceiling than say Thor or Hulk, which was Angryfantasyfan's question. TWS made more WW and OS than TDW and neither featured an ensemble cast. If anything I think it shows Cap is widely popular in spite of select countries having a negative view of the US.

 

[marcvader]

TWS was by far a better movie than TDW so naturally it would fare way better.

 

[third3ye]

TWS was by far a better movie than TDW so naturally it would fare way better.

TDW definitely over-indexed in OS for a critically average film. OS markets are typically less sensitive to reviews though, so hard to say how much more TDW would've made in OS if it were a superior film.

 

[Vincanws]

TDW definitely over-indexed in OS for a critically average film. OS markets are typically less sensitive to reviews though, so hard to say how much more TDW would've made in OS if it were a superior film.

I'd guess a hair over 700 million