Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[def28]

Except it kind of was. I think you are underestimating what happened last night. It was a cultural event last night, bigger then the new Avengers film. Because unlike AoU, it is was something new. Something people have been waiting a long time for.

Also I don't considering myself or my brother older men. Not even 30 yet. Us and all our friends watched the fight last night. That shockingly included women. I know. Weird.

It had to have taken a decent chunk out of the 20 to late 30's demo. Which would cut off some of the kids going as well.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

I don't deny that the fight probably hurt it a little on Saturday but that doesn't explain why it didn't at least match Potter's opening day record despite having 5 extra hours (Thursday evening shows) to do so? You would think more people would take the opportunity to see on Friday before the fight.

Not everyone can afford a night out on the town AND renting the big fight all in one week. Sports is every bit as popular as comic movies, arguably more so, and lots of folks want to see an event happen live, as opposed to seeing a movie that we all know will still be in theaters for weeks to come.

 

[Suzanne78]

Except it kind of was. I think you are underestimating what happened last night. It was a cultural event last night, bigger then the new Avengers film. Because unlike AoU, it is was something new. Something people have been waiting a long time for.

Also I don't considering myself or my brother older men. Not even 30 yet. Us and all our friends watched the fight last night. That shockingly included women. I know. Weird.

My twitter feed had a meltdown after Mayweather beat Pac. It was actually quite funny to read through. Hope it was worth it though for you! t:

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It had to have taken a decent chunk out of the 20 to late 30's demo. Which would cut off some of the kids going as well.

Yep. When the kids stay home as well, it changes things quite a bit. When there is something that has dad or mom's attention, it effects the whole family's plans for the weekend. Sunday could get a nice bump because of this.

 

[def28]

Yeah, will be interesting to see the difference.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Not everyone can afford a night out on the town AND renting the big fight all in one week. Sports is every bit as popular as comic movies, arguably more so, and lots of folks want to see an event happen live, as opposed to seeing a movie that we all know will still be in theaters for weeks to come.

Yeah, people might not realize the fight was $100. Thankfully, we passed the hat around.

My twitter feed had a meltdown after Mayweather beat Pac. It was actually quite funny to read through. Hope it was worth it though for you! t:

I waited a long time for this. My fandom for Floyd has soured over the years because of the man he is. But I have always been confident he'd handle Manny. It was nice to be right, if nothing else.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

What kind of legs?


The numbers are incredible. But I must admit, I am slightly disappointed it didn't break the record. I really believe the film will be front loaded, so I am now curious what the domestic gross will be. Should easily pass the first film WW, but that is a different market now, like it is every year. The true comparison is domestic.

Like instead of 2.4-2.5 (which I think would be an expected multiplier) the film gets a 2.6-2.7 multiplier.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Like instead of 2.4-2.5 (which I think would be an expected multiplier) the film gets a 2.6-2.7 multiplier.

You say this only because you might have overshot with your original prediction.

But nah, I could totally see that. I think it will at the very least make it to $500m.

 

[spider-neil]

You have to factor in kids and families because if the dad doesn't drive them to the cinema (watching the fight) then they are staying at home.

 

[Rapunzel]

In addition to the fight, prom is going on in some areas. At least it was in my neck of the woods.

 

[spider-neil]

Next week may see a better hold than expected because of the people who didn't watch the movie because of the fight going this weekend.
A real pity Marvel couldn't have pushed back/brought forward the movie by a week so avoid clashing with the fight.

 

[JKKS085]

If the actuals fall around the current projections (and they probably will) that would make AOU the most front loaded Marvel Studios entry yet. No matter how you want to spin it, it doesn't exactly bode well for the future of its BO run + there's competition ahead for pretty much all of its quadrants (Mad Max, Pitch Perfect 2 and then the family oriented Tomorrowland).

Now a good sign could be a sub 20% decline on Sunday (a 15% decline would be very good) which would be an indication of the impact of the fight on the saturday numbers and what we can expect moving forward. But if it keeps falling behind Iron Man 3 in dailies then there is trouble ahead and it might indeed struggle to outgross TDKR.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I can't see if falling that hard next weekend, with no competition.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

In addition to the fight, prom is going on in some areas. At least it was in my neck of the woods.

I think this was the same for my local high school. Interesting.

 

[Raiden]

I do think Marvel should reconsider staking a claim on the first weekend of May, and perhaps moving it to April. As Furious 7 has shown, people will flock to see a movie even when the school is still in session. April will give Marvel even less competition to deal with, and that will mean a better hold on a week-to-week basis.

 

[Mysteryman]

I can't see if falling that hard next weekend, with no competition.

Wasnt the First Avengers film , the first movie to make 100 million in it's second weekend ?
What are the chances of that happening with AOU?

 

[JKKS085]

Wasnt the First Avengers film , the first movie to make 100 million in it's second weekend ?
What are the chances of that happening with AOU?

Honestly ? None. Any sub 55% drop would be great and that would put the we right around 85/90M. Will probably make less than that though.

 

[MrMaooz]

I also wonder how large of an impact the game 7 between the Spurs and the Clippers had last night.

 

[marcvader]

The sports bar I frequent which is usually packed on Saturday nights, you have to wait about 20-30 minutes for seating, was 2/3's empty last night. It was surreal and I'm sure the fight had something to do with it.

 

[Iceman]

The fight will have made some kind of impact on the Saturday number and I guess even the weekend number. Shouldn't affect overall number of views across the whole life of its run all that much though hopefully.

 

[Spiderdevil]

I have no idea why. This thing is gonna make Disney ****loads of cash that other studios dream they could come near. These numbers are huge.

IM3 did not play as an Iron Man 2 follow up. It played as an Avenger one. You don't magically jump from 600m to 1.2 billion. I think it's safe to assume Cap 3 will definitely play as an Avenger follow up as well.

This is a completely different structure of films and sequels then any other franchise prior. We are still learning how this works and crossover sequels play. When GOTG makes more then Cap, there's gonna be some surprises.

Well with the new number it might fall below 500M domestically, it has a 290M budget(according to wikipedia) compared to TA's and IM3's, 220M and 200M respectively, individually it is a huge success, but based on there two movie, I expected it to make 200M OW at minimum

 

[redfirebird2008]

$187.7m is the official estimate. Taking out midnights/previews:

TA1 - $188.7m
TA2 - $160.1m
IM3 - $158.5m

If it continues running 1% ahead of IM3 for the rest of its run, it will not reach $425m. At this point I'm hoping it can get past $450m. I think $500m is unlikely.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Some bad word-of-mouth and some critics who give bad scores to a film can reduce a movie's opening weekend box office score, a lot. This seems to be the case with AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON.

Right before it was set to release in the U.S. this weekend, there were box office projections in the $210-$230 million. This would've broke the 3-day U.S. opening weekend record set by THE AVENGERS, which raked in $207 million.

Sadly, AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON fell short of those pre-release predictions and fell short of its predecessor's record. According to The Hollywood Reporter, Age of Ultron opened in the U.S. to the second biggest 3-day box office total of all-time with just over $187 million.

Not a bad number at all but, as I already said, some bad critics scores and bad word of mouth hurt the sequel a little bit. But all is not lost because when you add the worldwide box office numbers to the U.S. opening weekend number, AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON has already amassed over $627 million.

The sequel has a long way to go to try and beat the worldwide box office performance of THE AVENGERS, which had $1.5 billion. Age of Ultron may not beat that number but it definitely looks like it will join the $1 billion movie club, regardless

Wow...

 

[take3]

are we really acting like this are bad numbers
really?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

You say this only because you might have overshot with your original prediction.

But nah, I could totally see that. I think it will at the very least make it to $500m.

You know I want to be right but if I'm not whatever.