Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Dark Raven]

Is Furious 7 likely to overtake the Avengers as the 3rd highest grossing film of all time?

And could AOU even catch up at all or is it highly unlikely now?

Furious 7 seems a strange one to be that high up. Why would the 7th film in the franchise suddenly do so well?

AOU is currently the 21st highest grossing film of all time, behind the Dark Knight

 

[metaphysician]

Marvel has already given Disney 3 movies that grossed over 1 billion WW individually, and MCU is now the highest-grossing movie franchise in the history. I'm sure it has spoiled Disney a bit and let them concentrate on the movies they do best, which are animation and live action remake of animated classics (like Cinderella).

Probably almost as valuable, in Disney's eyes, is Marvel Studios knack for producing movies that gross well on reasonable budgets. Winter Soldier and GOTG "only" did in the 700M range, but they did so with production budgets of only 170M each. How many other studios routinely blow past 200M for every single blockbuster of note?

 

[8ulk]

The results were worse than that:

http://deadline.com/2015/03/amazing-spider-man-2-profit-box-office-2014-1201389608/

It made less than a 100 million profit.



The situation with RDJ always seemed a little odd, while he's offered a lot, it doesn't seem like he's the one asking for it, i remember that some time after Avengers, Hemsworth was trying to ask as much money as RDJ got, and other actors were feeling underpaid, and that then, RDJ was able to convince Marvel to give him a little less and a slight boost to the salaries of the other actors.

Actually TASM2 didnt make ANY money at all. It just grossed its production money (including marketing) back. Nothing more.

Although dvd/blu ray & merchs should give it decent profits.But the report that it lost money its total crap and not true.

Btw Bob Diva jr not only asked but he certainly demanded big paychecks and he "campaigned" for his colleagues to get bigger ones as well but thats pure hypocrisy. Its not in the realm of logic for all Avengers cast to grab a 50-100 mil paycheck.
Marvel studios would go broke and no movies for us.

Plus there is no actor in history that earned so much money without producing the film himself.

And to be honest getting paid more than the acual film protagonist is pure sign of greed. Bob Diva is getting more than Chris Evans for a Captain America film. His paychek for civil war is a guaranteed 30 mil plus bonuses if the film outgrosses winter soldier. Who knows how much he ll make.

He is gonna be the richest actor by far when he is done with MCU and noone will ever surpass him. So much greed and vanity. Being a great actor doesnt change his pathetic attitude.

I wish he would continue as Tony Star for ever cause i like his acting and hate recasts but he is gonna kill that dream. He already did.

Unlike High Jackman with Wolverine he thinks he owns Iron Man he doesnt understand he is simply paying homage.

 

[Iceman]

I know this is not the thread....but Mad Max was an awesome movie. The best movie I have seen this year by far. I really hope it gets to half a billion.

As for AOU...I understand it should have grossed close to $150M by sunday 23:59 in china. I just want this movie to hit at least $300M in china. That should cover all the domestic shortfall. And with the movie outgrossing the 1st avengers everywhere else..... this could hit $1.5B if it does make $300M in china.

This way AOU should top the domestic and WW boxoffice until SW7 comes along.

Everyone on the Hype who I've seen that's seen Mad Max seems to have loved it so I will definitely check it out.

I think $300m should be possible with a start like this. And like you say that would make up for the US shortfall and mean AoU would only need to outdo Avengers in the non-US, non-China territories to finish ahead of it.

 

[JOE]

I'm probably the minority but I hated Mad Max... Where do you guys think AOU is going to end up?

 

[Iceman]

This is why I think Marvel should consider April and not May as the month to launch their blockbuster movies. This year, April had virtually no huge movies except for Furious 7, but here in May we already have Mad Max and Pitch Perfect 2 competing against AOU in the third week of the month.

To me avoiding competition is all that matters when choosing a release date. Now that studios are experimenting wih different dates, the big films that have been released in non traditional months have done well.

 

[Raiden]

I think its virtually certain they *didn't* spend more than Sony did making TASM2. The reason is because, unlike Sony, Marvel Studios actually knows how to keep budgets under control.

Remember: marketing budgets are best ignored unless something unusual is happening, because so much of the marketing "budget" is fudgeable paper costs that don't really translate into real dollars spent. Combine that with tax breaks ( which are *not* factored into the production budget ), and your best just looking at the production budget.

Yeah, gonna give it to Marvel for their ability to keep the budget under control. That's one of the things that Marvel does better than WB, as both GL and SR's budget were rather high and the box office gross didn't quite cover, which I think was responsible for WB opting to cancel the sequels for both franchises.

 

[Raiden]

To me avoiding competition is all that matters when choosing a release date. Now that studios are experimenting wih different dates, the big films that have been released in non traditional months have done well.

I know that staking the first month of May is perceived as a status kind of thing for Hollywood, but I hope Marvel will face the reality that blockbusters can do even better in April facing minimal competition, and money > status. Avengers as a franchise is huge, but it is still better to avoid the other big movies so they can make more money.

 

[Iceman]

I'm probably the minority but I hated Mad Max... Where do you guys think AOU is going to end up?

I haven't adjusted it for recent figures but I think somewhere around $450m domestic and just ahead of the first film worldwide.

 

[Iceman]

I know that staking the first month of May is perceived as a status kind of thing for Hollywood, but I hope Marvel will face the reality that blockbusters can do even better in April facing minimal competition, and money > status. Avengers as a franchise is huge, but it is still better to avoid the other big movies so they can make more money.

I say any free month. You either get bigger opening weekends or bigger legs and bigger weekdays. The main thing is to avoid other big films and other similar films. Doesn't matter if you're the bigger film, opening near another quite big film will still impact your number of screens and percentage of revenue.

 

[hafizbat]

I'm probably the minority but I hated Mad Max... Where do you guys think AOU is going to end up?

Same here. I guess it's just not my thing!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@ERCboxoffice: Globally, AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON ($1.142B) is now the 8th highest grossing film of all eternity. Disney has 4 those 8. #earthsmightiest

Nice.

 

[rashad]

Fast 7 continues the march to 1.5 billion and becoming too far for AOU to reach.
@boxoffice: FURIOUS 7: $1.145B Overseas Total / $1.489B Global Total #Furious7

 

[Iceman]

Furious just not slowing down! Never thought it would be in with a shot of competing for no.1 worldwide for the year.

 

[Iceman]

Apparently AoU is at $156.3m after its 6 day opening in China. That means it either had an absolutely killer Sunday or the earlier days were revised up.

 

[ironman_rick]

Furious just not slowing down! Never thought it would be in with a shot of competing for no.1 worldwide for the year.

Looks like its gonna beat the avengers WW boxoffice total by next week...

 

[thalidomide]

@ERCboxoffice: Globally, AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON ($1.142B) is now the 8th highest grossing film of all eternity. Disney has 4 those 8. #earthsmightiest

It's about time.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, did not see that coming!

Looks like its gonna beat the avengers WW boxoffice total by next week...

 

[Iceman]

Nice.

And with TFA they could well have another entry in there soon. By the time Episode IX and IW2 are done Disney is going to have a very strong showing at the top.

 

[JKKS085]

Plus there is no actor in history that earned so much money without producing the film himself.

Funny.

Johnny Depp si being paid 95M+ for the next Pirates Of The Carribean film and took in 350M for the first 4 films (roughly 87M perf film). Jack Nicholson got paid 60M to play the Joker in Tim Burton's Batman (which would translate in 117M accounting for inflation). Marlon Brando took in 19M for 12 days of work on the first Superman film (that was in 1978 so that's 72M in 2015 dollars, again for 12 days of work). Keanu Reeves earned 160M for the two Matrix sequels.

But yeah, no one in history, and no secondary characters on that list at all.
Which bring us back to Downey drowning your puppies or something.

 

[JB33]

Funny.

Johnny Depp si being paid 95M+ for the next Pirates Of The Carribean film and took in 350M for the first 4 films (roughly 87M perf film). Jack Nicholson got paid 60M to play the Joker in Tim Burton's Batman (which would translate in 117M accounting for inflation). Marlon Brando took in 19M for 12 days of work on the first Superman film (that was in 1978 so that's 72M in 2015 dollars, again for 12 days of work). Keanu Reeves earned 160M for the two Matrix sequels.

But yeah, no one in history, and no secondary characters on that list at all.
Which bring us back to Downey drowning your puppies or something.

I know, eh? That poster seems really bitter. Ah well, his/her issues are his/her issues.

Good to see the estimated $38.84M domestic weekend haul for AoU. I've been reading all over the internet how AoU sucks because it got overtaken by Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max Fury Road. Sure, it fell behind,but that still stands as the 5th best 3rd weekend of all time. Says something. If AoU wasn't getting good reception it would have garnered a much smaller 3rd weekend and PP2 and MM:FR would have earned more.

At the end of the day, seems it wasn't about those 2 movies taking away from AoU. It was about AoU taking away from them.

 

[eddy]

AOU is currently the 21st highest grossing film of all time, behind the Dark Knight

Damn wasn't TDK in the top 5 worldwide just a few years ago.

 

[JB33]

Damn wasn't TDK in the top 5 worldwide just a few years ago.

At its peak it was 4th all time behind Titanic, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest. Then Avatar became the highest grossing film of all time some time in early 2010. Then a whole slew of billion dollar+ films came rolling in throughout the next 5 years.

 

[take3]

Box Office: ‘Avengers: Age of Ultron’ Opens Huge in China

 

[Iceman]

Anyone know what Furious 7 did in its first week in China?