Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[8ulk]

Ant-Man will be lucky if it makes $250million

Ant-Man making 250 mil ww ?

Hehe you are clueless arent you ?

Ant-man is poised for 150 mil US & 250 mil OS minimum

Thats 400mil WW.

Im pretty sure it will make north of 500 mil. Close to 600mil WW.

150-225 mil US
275-400 mil OS

 

[armyofrobots]

Ant-Man making 250 mil ww ?

Hehe you are clueless arent you ?

Ant-man is poised for 150 mil US & 250 mil OS minimum

Thats 400mil WW.

Im pretty sure it will make north of 500 mil. Close to 600mil WW.

150-225 mil US
275-400 mil OS

hey, most of you jokers thought Age of Ultron was going to make like $800million domestically. Plus, I'm talking domestic, not world wide gross. World wide? I'd say $300-$400million. It looks...terrible.

also, try not talking down to people. Really. You might enjoy life a little more.

 

[jmc]

why isn't Ultron making as much as everybody thought?

It's simple: we kill the Bat..no sorry.

It's not as good as the first. And the word of mouth just isn't as strong. Doesn't make it BAD, it's just not as good as first.

I mean, did anybody really...REALLY expect it to do $2billion? Come on. That's nonsense. That's just wishful thinking without any kind of reasoning behind it.

It's doing well, everybody is happy.

70% were guessing anywhere between 1.5B to 2B. It's evident this genre has its limits in terms of appeal.

 

[Iceman]

Well we dont know what it would have done had the film been received universally well like the first. I was expecting Ultron for one to be at the very least Marvel's best villain but he was kind of useless apart from some good jokes. Threat level not a whole lot more than what we've seen before. Really expected more on that front as Whedon had made out that this one character was his reason for getting involved with even the first film so he'd get the opportunity to do him in a sequel. Seems strange now looking back.

 

[Iceman]

70% were guessing anywhere between 1.5B to 2B. It's evident this genre has its limits in terms of appeal.

I guess that applies to all film genres then aside from films directed by Cameron. t: Outside of Cameron, future comic films and Star Wars films there probably isn't much else that will be threatening the $2B ballpark for a while.

 

[Raiden]

Well we dont know what it would have done had the film been received universally well like the first. I was expecting Ultron for one to be at the very least Marvel's best villain but he was kind of useless apart from some good jokes. Threat level not a whole lot more than what we've seen before. Really expected more on that front as Whedon had made out that this one character was his reason for getting involved with even the first film so he'd get the opportunity to do him in a sequel. Seems strange now looking back.

Yeah, I'm not exactly sure why Whedon was obsessed about bringing Ultron to the big screen in the first place. Spader was brilliant as the person behind Ultron, but Ultron was sadly not as threatening as a villain as I had hoped it would.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I guess that applies to all film genres then aside from films directed by Cameron. t: Outside of Cameron, future comic films and Star Wars films there probably isn't much else that will be threatening the $2B ballpark for a while.

The thing with Cameron is that he somehow manages to imbue a strong emotional connection to the audience with his films. This is evident in the box and office and how little they drop. Avatar dropped less than 1% on its first week. Try to fathom that. Less than !% on a weekend with a heavy blizzard and Sherlock Holmes.

Cameron's films achieve that rare, no, miraculous combination of emotional bond and technological marvel. Audiences never saw anything of its kind when Titanic and Avatar was first released. The last third of Titanic has some of the greatest practical stunts ever put to film, and Avatar was a jawdropping showcase of digital motion capture, it still looks good.

 

[regnak]

The thing with Cameron is that he somehow manages to imbue a strong emotional connection to the audience with his films. This is evident in the box and office and how little they drop. Avatar dropped less than 1% on its first week. Try to fathom that. Less than !% on a weekend with a heavy blizzard and Sherlock Holmes.

I am 99% certain the blizzard was on Avatar's opening weekend. That prevented people from seeing it then and made them see it the second weekend. There were stories about it IIRC.

 

[take3]

 

[TalismanRing]

I'm still surprised at how much AoU is actually struggling to get to TA1's total, considering the growth of overseas markets and the brand name of Marvel. I think the lukewarm WOM, lost novelty factor from the first one, increased competition compared to 2012, and Marvel announcing its full Phase 3 slate took the wind out of AoU's sails. I wonder if TA1 is the high point of the CBM genre that won't be topped unless the right combination of factors happens again.

It's a huge high water mark so maybe. Then again if O/S markets keep expanding even if domestic stagnates or decreases then Infinity Wars, especially Part II if great (or it's the last hurrah for the main cast) has a chance to not just pass but blow by it.

Other factors though like the strength of the $ and the economy of O/S markets also plays into it and predicting that 4 years into the future is fruitless.

O/S markets have grown since 2012 (mostly Asia and LA) but the dollar is much stronger than in 2012. For instance, The Euro, Aus $ and Mexican $ are all about 20-25% weaker. And several local currencies like larger markets like Russia and Brazil have plummeted 50-60%. So even with more admissions and tickets sold in many territories the $ returns are lower.

In 2015 $s The Avengers would have made about $750m O/S (about $675m w/o China) instead $895m. AOU is going to finish around $950-1b O/S. Now China will be about $150-60m of that increase but it's still a sizable increase in other local currencies.. Add in the big decrease in popularity and % of 3D in Europe and LA and overall admissions are even higher.

China also hamstrung AOU a bit by not only not opening it on a w/e in it's 30 day run, but a Tues and denying it 2D like it allowed for FF7.

The biggest % decline is the US. I think a decrease was expected by many (historically that's just what happens with phenomenon films) though it's bigger than I thought it would be. I thought it would be closer to Spider-Man 2 drop but then SM2 was a better reviewed film than the first which softened the drop.

In terms of B.O. AOU will decrease an estimated 28%. A portion of that is from the decreased % in 3D though that's partially offset by more 2D premium screens and IMAX .

TDKR decreased approx 17% in B.O. (softened by an increase in IMAX and premium 2D screens) from TDK but 23% in terms of tickets.

AOU's decrease in tickets will be near there - around 25%

 

[KBX]

As of today it is at $1.263b worldwide

 

[warriorking]

As of today it is at $1.263b worldwide

And people are calling it a failure?

 

[JB33]

Weekend estimates:

BoxOffice @BoxOffice · 2h 2 hours ago
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON earned an official 3-day/4-day estimate of $20.895M/$26.789M this weekend. Domestic total... http://fb.me/4ru4qgciX

BoxOffice @BoxOffice · 2h 2 hours ago
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON: $859.8M Overseas Total / $1,263,865 Global Total #Avengers #AgeOfUltron

 

[Webfoot Hero]

hey, most of you jokers thought Age of Ultron was going to make like $800million domestically. Plus, I'm talking domestic, not world wide gross. World wide? I'd say $300-$400million. It looks...terrible.

also, try not talking down to people. Really. You might enjoy life a little more.

Then don't come in here and do the same with your latest post (and a couple of your other posts in this thread.) Hard to take you seriously when you continually underestimate box office totals, mainly because you're using your own personal tastes versus actual tracking numbers/trends to determine a total. Also, it seems you're a bit of a drive-by poster with only 50+ posts in like 10 years as a registered users.

 

[Pond]

The quality of a movie is really irrelevant towards its Box Office.

 

[8ulk]

hey, most of you jokers thought Age of Ultron was going to make like $800million domestically. Plus, I'm talking domestic, not world wide gross. World wide? I'd say $300-$400million. It looks...terrible.

also, try not talking down to people. Really. You might enjoy life a little more.

1st of all noone said or guessed 800 mil dom for AoU. Provide a quote plz cause i know for sure its BS.

2nd of all you werent talking Dom. If you were implying 250 mil DOm then you clearly dont have a clue about boxoffice and you re contradicting yourself.

You really suggesting Ant-Man will make 250 mil US and only 300-400 WW ?
wow you re so funny.

I guess i dont have anything else to say to you. It would be pointless.

 

[Raiden]

The quality of a movie is really irrelevant towards its Box Office.

Exactly. Exhibit A: Transformers 4: Age of Extinction.

 

[Bruce Malone]

And people are calling it a failure?

It's certainly not a failure but it seems many had high hopes if not thought it was a certainty that it would out-gross the first one.

I'll say we'll probably have to wait until IW:Part 2 until we see a real chance to overtake A1's WW gross. But I still think A1's domestic tally will not be overtaken.

 

[armyofrobots]

Then don't come in here and do the same with your latest post (and a couple of your other posts in this thread.) Hard to take you seriously when you continually underestimate box office totals, mainly because you're using your own personal tastes versus actual tracking numbers/trends to determine a total. Also, it seems you're a bit of a drive-by poster with only 50+ posts in like 10 years as a registered users.

You mean my ONE other post about how Ultron was going to be severely front loaded and not have the legs like the first? That post? The one where I was right?

And yeah, tracking numbers seems to be what everybody else does. That's why they're all wondering how a film could have some of the highest record breaking pre-sales, but then fall below the original in every way possible.

And who cares how many times I post in however many years? Just you. Forgive me for not commenting more often on an internet forum. I'll make sure to post 45 times an hour validate my opinions. Woof. 7k in 3 years for you? I'll never catch up.

End of the day, underestimating the box office predictions made me RIGHT. Because it's not about how much you WANT the film to do, but how much it's actually going to do.

I'll post again in another 3 years saying the same thing about Infinity.

See you then! <3

 

[armyofrobots]

1st of all noone said or guessed 800 mil dom for AoU. Provide a quote plz cause i know for sure its BS.

2nd of all you werent talking Dom. If you were implying 250 mil DOm then you clearly dont have a clue about boxoffice and you re contradicting yourself.

You really suggesting Ant-Man will make 250 mil US and only 300-400 WW ?
wow you re so funny.

I guess i dont have anything else to say to you. It would be pointless.

Calm down. Eat a snickers.

I was talking domestic, unless of course I wasn't, but I was. And yeah, $400million world wide, if that.

Thank you, I'm hilarious. Listen to my podcast.

 

[JKKS085]

It's a huge high water mark so maybe. Then again if O/S markets keep expanding even if domestic stagnates or decreases then Infinity Wars, especially Part II if great (or it's the last hurrah for the main cast) has a chance to not just pass but blow by it.

Other factors though like the strength of the $ and the economy of O/S markets also plays into it and predicting that 4 years into the future is fruitless.

O/S markets have grown since 2012 (mostly Asia and LA) but the dollar is much stronger than in 2012. For instance, The Euro, Aus $ and Mexican $ are all about 20-25% weaker. And several local currencies like larger markets like Russia and Brazil have plummeted 50-60%. So even with more admissions and tickets sold in many territories the $ returns are lower.

In 2015 $s The Avengers would have made about $750m O/S (about $675m w/o China) instead $895m. AOU is going to finish around $950-1b O/S. Now China will be about $150-60m of that increase but it's still a sizable increase in other local currencies.. Add in the big decrease in popularity and % of 3D in Europe and LA and overall admissions are even higher.

China also hamstrung AOU a bit by not only not opening it on a w/e in it's 30 day run, but a Tues and denying it 2D like it allowed for FF7.

The biggest % decline is the US. I think a decrease was expected by many (historically that's just what happens with phenomenon films) though it's bigger than I thought it would be. I thought it would be closer to Spider-Man 2 drop but then SM2 was a better reviewed film than the first which softened the drop.

In terms of B.O. AOU will decrease an estimated 28%. A portion of that is from the decreased % in 3D though that's partially offset by more 2D premium screens and IMAX .

TDKR decreased approx 17% in B.O. (softened by an increase in IMAX and premium 2D screens) from TDK but 23% in terms of tickets.

AOU's decrease in tickets will be near there - around 25%

Thank you so much for this articulate, well thought post that "surpringly" came unoticed amongst a bunch of useless interventions that felt more like a pissing contest than an actual bo related debate.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

You mean my ONE other post about how Ultron was going to be severely front loaded and not have the legs like the first? That post? The one where I was right?

And yeah, tracking numbers seems to be what everybody else does. That's why they're all wondering how a film could have some of the highest record breaking pre-sales, but then fall below the original in every way possible.

And who cares how many times I post in however many years? Just you. Forgive me for not commenting more often on an internet forum. I'll make sure to post 45 times an hour validate my opinions. Woof. 7k in 3 years for you? I'll never catch up.

End of the day, underestimating the box office predictions made me RIGHT. Because it's not about how much you WANT the film to do, but how much it's actually going to do.

I'll post again in another 3 years saying the same thing about Infinity.

See you then! <3

Won't matter since I don't care to read any of your posts any more. Good riddance.

 

[Docker2.0]

Calm down. Eat a snickers.

I was talking domestic, unless of course I wasn't, but I was. And yeah, $400million world wide, if that.

Thank you, I'm hilarious. Listen to my podcast.

So is a monkey with herpes but no one is dying to see that.


Anyone see DarthSkywalker in here lately? Dude was so wrong on his BO prediction that it's not even funny.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I'm not afraid to admit that my prediction (lower end of $1.8 billion) was off but I think I made it shortly after GotG came out so figured the movie would build its BO total off that movie's momentum and TA1's performance. I'm just a bit disappointed that AoU was unable to grow past TA1's total. Still think it ends up at least coming close to TA1's total so I don't think it'll be a complete failure like some want to make it out to be.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Well I did my part, took my friend who hadn't seen it yet to the film today. The theater was pretty damn packed.