Age of Ultron Early Avengers 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

JKKS085 said:
I was merely implying that due to an unfavorable USD/JPY exchange rate AOU couldn't afford to sell half the amount of tickets Avengers sold in 2012 to ensure a 22M-ish finish in Japan that would put it past 1.4B WW. Therefore that it wasn't like some were saying a "done deal" based on that parameter alone.
I wasn't using macro-economic analysis to predict what it could do in Japan.

Now AOU opened to 6.6M over the week end, the biggest opening for a Hollywood live action film since Harry Potter 7-2, and the biggest opening week end for a superhero film only behind Raimi's Spider-Man trilogy (in tickets sold), so it's likely to surpass the first film gross in local currency. Making 1.4B WW a done deal indeed.
Click to expand...

Not exactly sure what you're saying, but, hey, that's okay. There are what are known as "interactions" among variables. Any variable is made up of a host of other variables and the interactions (dependencies) between them can be strong or weak. Exchange rates are a result of various factors. I'm not an economist, but I'd bet that economic health is a factor in exchange rates (could be wrong here). If that's the case, it's easy to get pulled into the macro-economic world without even knowing it.

If you're interested, I wrote a real page turner of a paper on the mathematical elimination of extraneous variables from multiple regression formulas and if anyone.....wants.....to.....read.....:sleepy:
 
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InCali I always get a good chuckle from your post. I don't post much when the numbers are out and it's waning but I always come through to read what's going on. Glad to have folks like you guys keep me up to date on all the numbers.

On a side note I saw an early screening of Ant-Man last night and I think Marvel may have another breakout sleeper like GotG on their hands. But what I thought was really interesting is the theater was still playing AoU
 
Just for interest, only 14.8% people selected the actual $ WW Box Office from the choices given. (not a stats geek, honest)
 
I was in the 1.2 - 1.4 billion with my guess. Knew it was going to fall shy of the first, not by much though.
 
I predicted over 1.6b, the lower domestic gross was expected I think (even though I thought it still had a shot at the ow record and would likely gross 550M+) but my understanding was that the overseas would likely make up for it and even add a few millions. The higher dollar unfortunately didn't allow for that outcome.
 
Is this movie out of 1.4B contention?
 
Something like 1,400 - 1410 bil will the the final numbers.

And it seems that Jurassic World wont get 1,65 bil WW after all.

Probably somewhere around 1,55-1,60 bil WW "barely" beating the original Avengers.

Also Age Of Ultron might even beat JW in the OS numbers depending on how well JW does in Japan.
 
Looks like japan is coming to a standstill......

Avengers: Age of Ultron grossed $2.9 million in its second weekend in Japan, its final overseas market in release. The ensemble superhero sequel has grossed a total of $13.5 million in the market after 9 days in release. The Avengers have grossed a total of $933.3 million overseas in their second outing, with a global cume of $1.388 billion. Top overseas performers include China ($235.5M), South Korea ($82.2M), UK ($73.6M), Mexico ($51M), and Brazil ($48.4M).
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Looks like 1.4B is out of reach....
 
It's going to take some time (especially after that second week end drop) but it's definitely not out of reach. The Japan market is a very leggy one and AOU should ultimately make around 23/25M there. The film grossed 2.2M this week end, dropping 29% for a 17.6M total.

In other news (domestic ones), it grossed an estimated $479,000 this week end, up 5% from last week (thanks to double features with Ant-Man I'd suppose) for a $456,009,000 total and $1,393,509,000 ww. 6.5M left to 1.4B.
 
Jurassic World has already overtaken FF7 to become the 4th highest grossing film of all time. That was quick. FF7 took much longer to reach the figure it did at $1,513,474,000. Looks like JW is definitely going to overtake the Avengers soon.

I wonder how quickly Star Wars is going to shoot up the list and displace all the others. Will Avengers even be 4th highest by the year's end? And where will AOU even be? 7th highest?
 
JKKS085 said:
It's going to take some time (especially after that second week end drop) but it's definitely not out of reach. The Japan market is a very leggy one and AOU should ultimately make around 23/25M there. The film grossed 2.2M this week end, dropping 29% for a 17.6M total.

In other news (domestic ones), it grossed an estimated $479,000 this week end, up 5% from last week (thanks to double features with Ant-Man I'd suppose) for a $456,009,000 total and $1,393,509,000 ww. 6.5M left to 1.4B.
Click to expand...

Yeah Japan is pretty leggy. If I had to guess I would say some time in mid to late August for AoU to hit 1.4B.
 
$1,395,930,000 after this weekend. $4.07 million to go...
 
So JW has taken the 3rd spot on the highest grossing films of all time, displacing Avengers. That's a shame. But it should be expected. Star Wars will probably be up there by the end of the year.
 
I love the Jurassic Park franchise so I'm glad if any movie had to take the record away from Avengers, it'd be that one.
 
I just want it to hit that 1.4B marker...
 
@BoxOffice: AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON: $941.5M Overseas Total / $1.398429B Global Total

Under $1.6 million to go...
 
Man! Is it opened in all the major markets yet? If so......it maybe a tough sale.
 
I think I can I think I can I think I can I think I can...
 
Wonder how the GA will react to Spidey in the MCU from now on. Might give things a nice boost.
 
Crawl baby, crawlllllllllll.
 
giphy.gif
 
I'm not familiar with box office duration overseas, but I didn't see any updates from last weekend. Is the run over?
 
SomeOldGuy said:
Not quite. A little good news buried in a screen daily report:



http://www.screendaily.com/box-offi...INTERNATIONAL-BOX-OFFICE-NEWS&contentID=40071

AOU is at $457.1 million domestic, so that international just tips it over $1.4 billion. :)
Click to expand...

That's good news. I was reading the international threads at the BoT boards, with the latest Japan updates, and couldn't figure out why it wasn't already past $1.4B. Seems like Buena Vista/Disney/Marvel doesn't feel like spreading the word. Understandably so. It's just the third highest grossing film WW this year, the second highest grossing comic book movie of all time, no need to make a fuss.
 
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