Infinity War Infinity War Box Office (poll is for the first film) - Part 3

[Iceman]

Lies, it was my one watching!!!!

You win

 

[Iceman]

Not to be a spoil-sport because I absolutely would love for A4 to do just as well, if not better, but I’m not sure it’s a foregone conclusion that it will.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion. At this point I would bet on similar numbers again and making more or less wouldn't surprise me. A significant fall would definitely surprise me though and I think is just not going to happen. There is still material upside potential too from developing markets. Avengers 4 has been set up about as well as we could have hoped with all the recent build up films (Ragnarok, BP & IW) being very well received. If AM&W and Cap Marvel in particular can continue this trend, then A4 can't ask to be in a better position to cap off this MCU project with some serious numbers.

 

[Iceman]

I would say often times a Part 2 in a 2 part movie often makes less than Part 1, plus there is that risk that if anyone major is dead for good, may see some audience push back. So I see a couple of ways A4 could make less.

The entire sample size of Part 1s and Part 2s is just too small to draw any meaningful statistical inference. It's similar to how difficult it is to predict things for the very biggest films (of which the sample size is also very small) which often ignore the box office trends we've built up our knowledge of (with countless examples that did follow established trends), because they are statistical freaks and freaks in different ways to each other. There is not much Titanic, Avatar, BP & TFA can tell us about how other big blockbusters should behave.

If the dual-part films we've seen to date happen to accurately reflect how Part 1s and Parts 2 should behave in future it will only be by coincidence. It might sound funny to non-stats people but it's like an alien being given 6 humans at random and then making a judgement that humans are big/small, intelligent/dumb based on this sample. He might get it right based on these 6 humans but only by coincidence and there happening to be no unusual members in that group.

 

[C. Lee]

Does this make it the fourth movie to cross the $2 billion line worldwide?

Yep....4th to make 2B....but the first movie with a summer release to make that much.

 

[Flint Marko]

If AM&W and Cap Marvel in particular can continue this trend, then A4 can't ask to be in a better position to cap off this MCU project with some serious numbers.

That's a good point. Captain Marvel in particular could be a huge tipping point for A4 that'd put it over the top.

 

[8ulk87]

I don't expect a huge drop, but I expect a small drop. Plus, let's say like Iron Man dies or something. That's a bold risk and could stop repeat viewings. Same for Cap, Thor, or insert favorite Avenger here. With IW, despite the ending I think the audience felt like another part was coming. With A4, that's it. It's a conclusion. So something like that may put people off.

Yes but its a double-end sword. Not having a real conclusion did hurt IW imho.
At least A4 will not suffer from that problem hopefully.

Personally i expect A4 to beat Titanic.

 

[Fallen]

_______

 

[Nicko-Ray]

It certainly makes sense, and I do think it'll be another monster sized hit. But like Spider-fan says, it depends on how well it can stick the landing. It will essentially be the first real "ending" Marvel has ever really given this world and these characters, so we'll have to see how well the audience responds to that.

If I were a betting man I'd say A4 will at least come close to 2 billion, but there's a lot that could happen between now and a year from now.

I would say often times a Part 2 in a 2 part movie often makes less than Part 1, plus there is that risk that if anyone major is dead for good, may see some audience push back. So I see a couple of ways A4 could make less.

Good points. Could see some "backlash" to favorites "dying/ending". Idk though. Everyone is in for a ride for sure and so far it seems people are in. I think subconsciously (consciously for others, too) DO want an ending. We'll find out in a year or so..

 

[Iceman]

Looks so much better now that the number starts with a 2.

And Titanic dom going down soon.

 

[Donald Thomas]

Looks so much better now that the number starts with a 2.

And Titanic dom going down soon.

Aloha,
Yes, you know how we LOVE nice round numbers here on the Hype.

Spidey rules
Long Live the King of Wakanda

 

[Dark Raven]

Great that it's passed 2Bn. But can it surpass the Force Awakens or is it going to get stuck at No.4?

 

[Iceman]

Aloha,
Yes, you know how we LOVE nice round numbers here on the Hype.

Spidey rules
Long Live the King of Wakanda

Round numbers are all that matter t:

 

[samsnee]

Looks so much better now that the number starts with a 2.

And Titanic dom going down soon.

Iceberg dead ahead!

 

[kedrell]

Looks so much better now that the number starts with a 2.

And Titanic dom going down soon.

By Friday at the latest.

 

[kedrell]

If it can manage another $73.6M WW(which I'm very dubious about) then the Avengers sub-franchise will have made $5B in 3 films.

 

[Iceman]

Iceberg dead ahead!

Let's sink that bastard!

By Friday at the latest.

I love Fridays!

 

[Bonecrasher]

Why are people hating on Titanic. It was and still is a great film for it’s time.

 

[Captain Marvel]

The number was revised upwards. It's actually...

$2,002,059,331

 

[Captain Marvel]

And unless Avengers 4 is terrible, I think it's a foregone conclusion that it'll make more money than Infinity War. Remember, it's only a year away and it's the concluding chapter of the story. The conclusions tend to make more than the predecessor. By way of example:

$926,047,111 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
$1,119,929,521 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

+$93 million

$1,004,558,444 The Dark Knight
$1,084,939,099 The Dark Knight Rises (And it made more despite the absence of Heath Ledger and generally being considered a worse movie)

+$80 million

$960,283,305 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
$1,341,511,219 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

+$380 million!!!

Those movies made more than their predecessors because the previous movie built up the hype for it. It set up the audiences anticipation to see how the story ends, which is exactly what Infinity War has done. Audiences are frothing at the mouth to see what'll happen next, because there's no way that their last memory of the MCU is going to be of half the universe fading into dust. They want to see what happens next. Not just the people who went to see it, but the people who heard about it but never saw it, and instead end up buying it on Blu-Ray, DVD, or digital. Or who watch it on Netflix or wherever else it lands. Avengers 4 is going to build an audience of people who didn't see it in theaters just like how The Dark Knight built up an audience of people who never saw Batman Begins in theaters, but heard about it through word of mouth and later checked it out on DVD, or who got caught up for the hype machine for the next one.

And for those who have seen Infinity War, Avengers 4 will also deliver a lot more repeat viewings, because again, it's the end of the story. It'll get repeat viewings the way Return of the King got repeat viewings in comparison to The Two Towers, as audiences say goodbye to some of these characters. And that's another major plus for it. Avengers 4 is likely the last time that many of these actors play these roles. Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans are most likely done after that movie. Any audience member who loves those characters, and those actors in those roles, but didn't see Infinity War for whatever reason, WILL go see Avengers 4 when they learn it's the swan song for those two characters. RDJ is the most popular actor in these movies, and Iron Man is the most popular character. People are going to want to go to the movies to see how Iron Man's story comes to an end.

IMO, Infinity War set the bottom floor of Avenger 4's box office potential. It can only do worse if it's absolutely horrid. And given the Russo's track record, there's no reason to think that'll be the case. If anything, Infinity War should've been the train wreck, given how many characters they had to work with. If they were successful with all those characters, then they can only do much better with the much reduced cast for the next one. So if we assume that it'll be as good if not better than Infinity War, then it'll definitely make more money. I'm guessing it'll pull in $100-$200 million more than Infinity War, in which case it'll definitely topple The Force Awakens and may even overtake Titanic.

 

[samsnee]

Why are people hating on Titanic. It was and still is a great film for it’s time.

Boys and girls kissing. Ew so gross!

 

[Xeno]

Good points. Could see some "backlash" to favorites "dying/ending". Idk though. Everyone is in for a ride for sure and so far it seems people are in. I think subconsciously (consciously for others, too) DO want an ending. We'll find out in a year or so..

After IW came out, some predicted a backlash due to the downbeat ending and the massive amount of deaths in the film. It never happened. The audience embraced IW, "depressing" end and all, as indicated by the $2 billion worth of tickets it sold. Having embraced and enjoyed IW, people will want to see it through to the end. (Or at least, the end of the original Avengers' arc.)

 

[spider-neil]

A4 making more money than IW isn't a foregone conclusion.
1. The potential 3 hour running time will mean less showings.
2. Did the viewers completely fresh to the MCU (and there had to be loads for the movie to make $500m more than Avengers 1) enjoy IW because if too confusing (because you didn't see enough of the other movies) you may not return for the conclusion.

I would say that a billion is a lock, though. So worst case, two Avengers movies with a budget of a billion (actors, film making, marketing) would have made 3 times the money and that wouldn't include home video and merchandising.

 

[Captain Marvel]

A4 making more money than IW isn't a foregone conclusion.
1. The potential 3 hour running time will mean less showings.

Return of the King was longer than The Two Towers, and The Dark Knight Rises was longer than The Dark Knight, and they both still made more money. Once again, follow ups to very popular movies which concluded the story made more money than their predecessor. There’s no reason to believe that Avengers 4 won’t do the same. The momentum is definitely in its favor.

2. Did the viewers completely fresh to the MCU (and there had to be loads for the movie to make $500m more than Avengers 1) enjoy IW because if too confusing (because you didn't see enough of the other movies) you may not return for the conclusion.

Not having seen Avengers in the theater doesn’t mean you’re “completely new” to the MCU. Most people have probably seen some of the movies on Blu-Ray or DVD beforehand. I sincerely doubt the movie made $500 million off of people who’ve never seen an MCU movie before and will never see another one again.

 

[Adder]

So much for the "misery index" someone was talking about on these boards a while back. LOL

 

[Iceman]

A4 making more money than IW isn't a foregone conclusion.
1. The potential 3 hour running time will mean less showings.
2. Did the viewers completely fresh to the MCU (and there had to be loads for the movie to make $500m more than Avengers 1) enjoy IW because if too confusing (because you didn't see enough of the other movies) you may not return for the conclusion.

I would say that a billion is a lock, though. So worst case, two Avengers movies with a budget of a billion (actors, film making, marketing) would have made 3 times the money and that wouldn't include home video and merchandising.

A billion is a lock? Don’t go crazy on us man! t: A billion would be great but it doesn’t pay to be too overenthusiastic like this. Once it opens and gets to $995m, that is the time to start making out there statements like this.