Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tobias]

Personally I think it's going to be around that 500-600 million mark around the world. I don't see it making any more than that. I also don't think it's going to be that big here in the U.S.A. only because the weeks after MOS there are big movies coming out. Monsters University comes out the following week if I remember correctly so that will win the weekend. Also opening that weekend is World War Z which teenage boys and anyone who liked the book will go see, so that will be some competition for MOS. Then later on in the month Heat and White House Down will be released. While these two won't be any where as good as MOS they still have big names in them that people will want to see.

So right now MOS needs to have a huge opening from what I have heard and read online the tracking seems to be any where from 100 mill to about 150 mill. Great opening weekend but it will drop a great deal the following weekend.

But we will see if there is one movie that could make some serious money it's this movie but don't be shocked if it's a pretty big hit but not something that blows everything away.

It looks like 600 million is the floor it has to make to set JL in motion. In which case it needs a 3 multiplier based on your 100 million opening figure (I haven't heard any projection of 150 million - if there is one it's an outlier) to get to 300 million US. Assuming it does the same OS box as domestic a la SR that would get it to 600 million. Cutting it close.

Good point about Z the second weekend. Excel did a detailed analysis but only factored in MU. He projected a 56% drop but like you say both films are targeting key demos critical to MOS.

I think your 500 million figure is low simply because adjusted for inflation that is about what SR would make today. With the added star power and Nolan I have to believe that will provide an additional kick. How much I don't know. My guess is it ends up at 550 - 560 WW.

Could be a long summer as in 2006 after WB's head said an SR sequel would be considered if SR made 200 million domestic. Which it finally did in September as I recall.

 

[restlessdreams]

It looks like 600 million is the floor it has to make to set JL in motion. In which case it needs a 3 multiplier based on your 100 million opening figure (I haven't heard any projection of 150 million - if there is one it's an outlier) to get to 300 million US. Assuming it does the same OS box as domestic a la SR that would get it to 600 million. Cutting it close.

Good point about Z the second weekend. Excel did a detailed analysis but only factored in MU. He projected a 56% drop but like you say both films are targeting key demos critical to MOS.

Could be a long summer as in 2006 after WB's head said an SR sequel would be considered if SR made 200 million domestic. Which it finally did in September as I recall.

Yeah I think 600 million will be if it just blows people away. I would also agree with you that 150 million isn't going to happen. I read it on one site and I figured I should just add it in. The international market is going to have to be big for this movie. Because it will take time for MOS to reach 200 million here if it even does. Realistically your looking at about 100 million dollar opening and if does drop 56% it will fall below 50 million the second weekend. And then after that, who knows how much it will fall. MOS might take some time to get to 200 million which WB might not like to see.

 

[Tobias]

Yeah I think 600 million will be if it just blows people away. I would also agree with you that 150 million isn't going to happen. I read it on one site and I figured I should just add it in. The international market is going to have to be big for this movie. Because it will take time for MOS to reach 200 million here if it even does. Realistically your looking at about 100 million dollar opening and if does drop 56% it will fall below 50 million the second weekend. And then after that, who knows how much it will fall. MOS might take some time to get to 200 million which WB might not like to see.

If it doesn't reach 200 million in the US it will have done worse than SR. A lot worse in adjusted numbers. If that happens you can kiss Superman goodbye as a tier 1 character and forget about any more Superman films. That number would likely kill JL too. Anything is possible but it's hard for me to believe MOS wouldn't break 200 million domestic.

On foreign markets I'm going with SR where it made a little less OS than in the US. Unlike other characters like Thor and Spidey and Ironman who do much better OS. Like I said I think domestic and OS totals will be close.

Excel sets the opening uber high IMO. It'd be interesting to take 100 million as a base and plug it into his weekend fall numbers and see when MOS would hit 200 million.

 

[Greeneyes]

If it doesn't reach 200 million in the US it will have done worse than SR. A lot worse in adjusted numbers. If that happens you can kiss Superman goodbye as a tier 1 character and forget about any more Superman films. That number would likely kill JL too. Anything is possible but it's hard for me to believe MOS wouldn't break 200 million domestic.

On foreign markets I'm going with SR where it made a little less OS than in the US. Unlike other characters like Thor and Spidey and Ironman who do much better OS. Like I said I think domestic and OS totals will be close.

Excel sets the opening uber high IMO. It'd be interesting to take 100 million as a base and plug it into his weekend fall numbers and see when MOS would hit 200 million.

Still repeating the same things you've been saying for years Doug22

You want Superman to disappear and fail.

 

[Tobias]

You want Superman to disappear and fail.

Nope. Read what I wrote and what the OP wrote to which I replied.

The 200 million figure was suggested by the OP. I said I don't believe that number and am guessing MOS does 270 or so domestic. With the added OS venues, MOS should do better OS this time. If it can do 330 OS then voila the magic 600 million number will be hit.

The OP said MOS might not even do 200 million which is crazy IMO. I simply commented what would happen if that happened. But no way MOS does not do better than SR adjusted for inflation. It's not going to happen but if it did do you disagree with what I said would happen in that situation? Again though, it ain't happening.

I took Excel's figures and based them on a 100 million opening weekend. Which is possible (ranges I've seen are 80 - 120 so it's right in the middle). In that case the film makes 280 million plus domestic. Close to my guess. And in that case 320 million OS would boost it to 600 million.

I want Superman to thrive again - I write Supes fic because I love the character. I don't write Bats or Ironman or anything else. I think, I hope, my knowledge of the mythos shows through in the fics. I wish you would check one out - specifically "I Didn't Know". Not complete yet but it has gotten a great reaction from the fanfiction.net Superman board.

 

[GreenKToo]

Because it will take time for MOS to reach 200 million here if it even does.

wut??

If it gets to 200 mill dom?? Thats absurd, and I'm not one of the posters here thats predicting 800 mill + ww either.
I usually respect posters opinions, but really???

 

[Tobias]

Because it will take time for MOS to reach 200 million here if it even does.

wut??

If it gets to 200 mill dom?? Thats absurd, and I'm not one of the posters here thats predicting 800 mill + ww either.
I usually respect posters opinions, but really???

ITA. As I posted above. I'm not as optimistic as most here on the box but domestically MOS will beat SR adjusted for inflation IMO. Which means a domestic take north of 245 which I believe are the adjusted SR numbers. I am saying 270 million.

I think the OP wasn't thinking it all through when he wrote that.

 

[GreenKToo]

Evidently not. I'm one of the more conservative posters here when it comes to MoS's BO, and even I am thinking around 300 mill dom. ( give or take 10/15 mill.)

 

[Tobias]

Evidently not. I'm one of the more conservative posters here when it comes to MoS's BO, and even I am thinking around 300 mill dom. ( give or take 10/15 mill.)

Let's hope if you give 15 (285 million) then the OS box takes it and does 315 million. The key is getting to 600 million.

It won't be easy but it can be done - even adjusting Excel's OW number way down to 100 million from 145 million and using his assumptions it comes out to 285 or so domestic. Again the OS box may make the difference.

 

[GreenKToo]

I think 600 mill is a very good possibility, how much over is the question for me.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

In GreenKToo I trust (expecially after the tv spot #3)

 

[GreenKToo]

MoS has all the classic signs of being a big hit.
An Awesome cast,
nolan/snyder,
And from the looks of it, terrific action with superfights.
And, lets not forget, it appears to have a good story. theres more, but thats the most important things.

It just feels right to me. Its been awhile since I felt this way about a film beforehand. you can just tell this will be special.

600 mill ww. at the minimum.

 

[Tobias]

I think 600 mill is a very good possibility, how much over is the question for me.

600 million does seem to be the key to a JL or MOS2. Anything over would be gravy.

Nolan, the strong acting ensemble and Cavill's stud factor help. Now SR had the stud factor with Routh but not the other elements.

To this day I think Lois having Superman's child put a damper on the film leading up to it. It was a stupid thing to do IMO. But that is me.

So I think there are stronger winds behind MOS than there were behind SR but it is still hard to call. I am thinking 550 - 600 million but of course hoping for 600 million.

The action seems to be there this time but with SR they "hyped" the action in the final promos and those turned out false.

I don't think they are hyping the action now. Given Snyder's track record.

The film has very tough competition in week two from 2 films. Not as massive as POTC but both films aim at key MOS demos. Better they had switched release dates with Pacific Rim. Oh well.

Henry's acting will be a factor. The guy is charming as hell (and oh so polite with his "thank you's" and "pleases"). It's why I love the British - I think they call it class.

Still can he capture the charm Reeve had - or approach it. Reeve was one of a kind.

The story looks good and is still partially under wraps which is a good thing IMO. A rumor today says there is a surprise Easter egg. Possibly not unexpected given WB's desire to use MOS to launch the JL franchise.


Again, MOS seems to have a definitely stronger wind at it's back than did SR.

We will see. I'm not as confident as most here but I think it is doable.

 

[GreenKToo]

600 million does seem to be the key to a JL or MOS2. Anything over would be gravy.

Nolan, the strong acting ensemble and Cavill's stud factor help. Now SR had the stud factor with Routh but not the other elements.

To this day I think Lois having Superman's child put a damper on the film leading up to it. It was a stupid thing to do IMO. But that is me.

So I think there are stronger winds behind MOS than there were behind SR but it is still hard to call. I am thinking 550 - 600 million but of course hoping for 600 million.

The action seems to be there this time but with SR they "hyped" the action in the final promos and those turned out false.

I don't think they are hyping the action now. Given Snyder's track record.

The film has very tough competition in week two from 2 films. Not as massive as POTC but both films aim at key MOS demos.

Henry's acting will be a factor. The guy is charming as hell (and oh so polite with his "thank you's" and "pleases". It's why I love the British - I think they call it class.

Still can he capture charm Reeve had - or approach it. Reeve was one of a kind.

Again, MOS seems to have a definitely stronger wind at it's back than did SR.

We will see.

I'm not bashing SR but honestly, ive saw more action in the trailers for MoS than I did in the entire SR film. I liked SR, I did. but MoS is in a whole other league. How many supervillians does MoS have again?
People want s'plosions these days and fights in their superhero films. give them that, and a halfway decent story, and MOST of the time, you will have a hit.

MoS has what 1-2 weeks all to itself before MU comes out. I wouldnt be surprised if its already over 200 mill dom by then.

You're correct tho in saying we dont know what will happen until it is actually is released. I'm not too worried tho.

 

[DKDetective]

MoS has all the classic signs of being a big hit.
An Awesome cast,
nolan/snyder,
And from the looks of it, terrific action with superfights.
And, lets not forget, it appears to have a good story. theres more, but thats the most important things.

It just feels right to me. Its been awhile since I felt this way about a film beforehand. you can just tell this will be special.

600 mill ww. at the minimum.

If they keep releasing more TV Spots like TV Spot 3 that sell the action and it is a movie of Batman Begins quality and, thus, there is great word of mouth, I can see Man of Steel doing 700-800 million worldwide. Sure, it is a reboot and it usually takes foreign audiences awhile to warm to them but so many people think this is a Nolan movie that I'm starting to think that maybe we should start thinking of this movie performing as a quasi-sequel to The Dark Knight Trilogy.

 

[Bran-El]

This Superman reboot seems to be doing everything right. It should be able to leap $275 million in a single bound.

 

[GreenKToo]

If they keep releasing more TV Spots like TV Spot 3 that sell the action and it is a movie of Batman Begins quality and, thus, there is great word of mouth, I can see Man of Steel doing 700-800 million worldwide. Sure, it is a reboot and it usually takes foreign audiences awhile to warm to them but so many people think this is a Nolan movie that I'm starting to think that maybe we should start thinking of this movie performing as a quasi-sequel to The Dark Knight Trilogy.

I like your optimism , but, I'm not ready just yet to predict such a high number. call me gunshy. Perhaps when the release time gets closer i'll up my guess.

 

[Tobias]

I'm not bashing SR but honestly, ive saw more action in the trailers for MoS than I did in the entire SR film. I liked SR, I did. but MoS is in a whole other league. How many supervillians does MoS have again?
People want s'plosions these days and fights in their superhero films. give them that, and a halfway decent story, and MOST of the time, you will have a hit.

MoS has what 1-2 weeks all to itself before MU comes out. I wouldnt be surprised if its already over 200 mill dom by then.

You're correct tho in saying we dont know what will happen until it is actually is released. I'm not too worried tho.

Action is the key in this type of film. If the action is great the story can be weak and the film do well. Not saying the MOS story is weak, just sayin.

Actually MU comes out the following week and Z which is a problem. Not of POTC proportions but still a problem.

I didn't mean to bash SR as such just that IMO one key strategic mistake, Superman's kid, put a damper leading up to the film on the film.

Course the costume issue won't go away and SR and MOS's costumes are not liked by many fans anyway.

On the plus side the MOS costume does not compress Cavill - he looks buff and it is not and issue. The SR costume compressed Routh so he appeared not buff though he actually was.

I miss the red trunks - did Snyder even try his suit with red trunks? But I can live with that. Not a deal breaker. And the large shield on the chest makes SR's small shiled look silly.

So we will see.

Being a Debbie Doubter by nature I am keeping my expectations kind of low on the BO. Maybe I will be in for a surprise.

 

[GreenKToo]

Action is the key in this type of film. If the action is great the story can be weak and the film do well. Not saying the MOS story is weak, just sayin.

Actually MU comes out the following week and Z which is a problem. Not of POTC proportions but still a problem.

I didn't mean to bash SR as such just that IMO one key strategic mistake, Superman's kid, put a damper leading up to the film on the film.

Course the costume issue won't go away and SR and MOS's costumes are not liked by many fans anyway.

On the plus side the MOS costume does not compress Cavill - he looks buff and it is not and issue. The SR costume compressed Routh so he appeared not buff though he actually was.

I miss the red trunks - did Snyder even try his suit with red trunks? But I can live with that. Not a deal breaker. And the large shield on the chest makes SR's small shiled look silly.

So we will see.

Being a Debbie Doubter by nature I am keeping my expectations kind of low on the BO. Maybe I will be in for a surprise.

I read that snyder tried the red trunks. he said that tried very hard, but couldnt make it work..not sure if thats truthful but he did say it.

 

[Tobias]

I read that snyder tried the red trunks. he said that tried very hard, but couldnt make it work..not sure if thats truthful but he did say it.

Though I can live w/o the trunks I don't get the big deal. If anything the singlet type suit is more (ahem) revealing. Just do an internet search on Henry's bulge. The trunks serve a purpose.

I would love to see a photo of the suit with the trunks - if indeed there is one and as you say Snyder "tried very hard".

It's kind of the same issue with the new 52. With the lawsuit about settled in DC/WB's favor (the heirs can and may appeal to the SCOTUS but legal experts are saying the SCOTUS won't even take it up) maybe the trunks will reappear. One can hope.

Still I can live with the suit and it has grown on me a bit though all that piping is superfluous IMO and I wish the stand-alone buckle was yellow. They needed to do more of a belt thing IMO.

 

[GreenKToo]

I have to say, I love the suit. It had me at hello when the first reveal came out.

 

[Tobias]

I have to say, I love the suit. It had me at hello when the first reveal came out.

I can live with the suit. I like it better than SR's even though that was sort of classic. Hated the tight SR collar though, the small shield and the funky boots.

I am holding my estimate to 550 - 600 million. Maybe I will up it but probably not. I really do not want to be disappointed again as I was with SR's numbers. Sent me into a blue funk.

If MOS does good enough to launch JL (600 million it seems) my only concern is that JL will be huge and WB will have Cavill in JL 2 rather than doing an MOS2. He is signed for just 3 films and seems unlikely to do more. So they would have to reboot Superman yet again.

Oh well, better MOS succeeds and we get 2 JL films and not an MOS2 than it doesn't and we get nothing.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

If they keep releasing more TV Spots like TV Spot 3 that sell the action and it is a movie of Batman Begins quality and, thus, there is great word of mouth, I can see Man of Steel doing 700-800 million worldwide. Sure, it is a reboot and it usually takes foreign audiences awhile to warm to them but so many people think this is a Nolan movie that I'm starting to think that maybe we should start thinking of this movie performing as a quasi-sequel to The Dark Knight Trilogy.

I agree with pretty much everything. However, at the moment, I think I'm still keeping my prediction at $650-700 million.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

Early tracking here is excellent (SUPR2), $125M opening being predicted.

http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=232001

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Early tracking here is excellent (SUPR2), $125M opening being predicted.

http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=232001

Still going to play it safe and say MOS opens to $107 million.