Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Liam_H]

Not predicting near $150 million isn't lowballing.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I keep upping my predictions but it is not due to excitement alone. It's due to sales/merchandise, among other things. At this point, once we reach $100 Million for the OW which is a given at this point according to "experts", Man of Steel IMO will end up with a huge, huge OW damn near close to Iron Man 3. I'm thinking $155-$165 million. Nobody has the balls to predict it. I just don't understand the lowballing estimates. This is going to over perform big time. It IS Superman and the Superman film fans have waited for and a movie that is desperately needed.

MoS could be that one movie that just came out at the right time while hitting all cylinders. I sincerely hope this film over performs and really makes a crap ton of money so DC can start making more superhero movies. I absolutely LOVE the realism/gritty/dramatic approach for Batman/Superman and hopefully future superheroes as opposed to quirky, cheesy, and funny.

Since when does predicting a box office figure on a message board take balls? lol

There's no real down-side to "low-balling" estimates, which is not as extreme as you are making it out to be. However people who come out with these very high figures are potentially setting themselves up for disappointment as well as hurting the films perception if it doesn't make those figures.

STID is actually doing decent at the BO but it's high-balled predections for its OW almost sank the film due to the negative reaction when it didn't reach those numbers.

 

[db85usa]

Not predicting near $150 million isn't lowballing.

It can make that much in its OW. I'd put it at a 70% chance right now. I know Fandango isn't the best source but according to them, it is outpacing Iron Man 3 as far as sales go. The big thing to watch for is will this be a walk up movie? Will families go with Fathers day around the corner? I think they will. I will say this, I would not be the least bit surprised if it does score an OW on or around Iron Man 3. I'm kind of expecting it to right now.

Lowballing to me is $75-$80 million OW, $600 Million WW. That is what I meant. For MoS, $800-$900 Million WW is what I think it will close with. The aggresive promotion of this movie with less than a week away and the enormous amount of partnerships leads me to believe WB is very, very confident that this movie will perform well.

 

[GreenKToo]

I hope you're right. A 155/65 mill ow would be awesome. I still think 115/120 tho.

 

[redp]

Lowballing to me is $75-$80 million OW, $600 Million WW. That is what I meant. For MoS, $800-$900 Million WW is what I think it will close with. The aggresive promotion of this movie with less than a week away and the enormous amount of partnerships leads me to believe WB is very, very confident that this movie will perform well.

Exactly. WB is expecting high numbers otherwise they won't be spending so much money and effort into something that is worthless. $155 million opening is plausible but statistically speaking unlikely.(~20%) Hunger Games's and Spider-Man's(adjusted gross) opening suggest that a $150M debut is likely(that's why there is a 20%). They both are new movies to a franchise. And they both have a strong background and reputation--one with the books and the other with the comics. There are several differences.(Spider-Man had the advantage of being original in the domain of superheroes). MOS doesn't have that advantage since we have several comic-based movies being released this year. How this plays out with the movie's revenue is arguable.

So, I can definitely expect such a opening. With a bit of audience analysis, it does seem that $150 is attainable. But, then again more concrete data will be needed.

 

[Liam_H]

Didn't GL also have a s**tload of tie ins?

Hunger Games along with Twilight and HP aren't really comparable.

 

[redp]

Honestly, once you get into the $100M+ range, anything can happen.

 

[robot]

Since when does predicting a box office figure on a message board take balls? lol

There's no real down-side to "low-balling" estimates, which is not as extreme as you are making it out to be. However people who come out with these very high figures are potentially setting themselves up for disappointment as well as hurting the films perception if it doesn't make those figures.

STID is actually doing decent at the BO but it's high-balled predections for its OW almost sank the film due to the negative reaction when it didn't reach those numbers.

What's high and what's low is a matter of opinion. For you, $150M OW is 'too high, and causes problems for the movie'.. for me and others, anything below $120 is too low...

Anyways, instead of people being disappointed, I think those predicting less than 900M will be pleasantly surprised... because it'll hit 1B (my prediction, or, opinion, because I don't really have the proper tools/variables to actually predict)

 

[db85usa]

Didn't GL also have a s**tload of tie ins?

Hunger Games along with Twilight and HP aren't really comparable.

Nothing like MoS, MoS has Sears, Walmart, pretty much every major retailer on board. It's over 110 or so I believe and still more major companies are jumping in on the fun. It will, in the end, cost WB probably in upwards of $180 million alone in promotional costs. Man of Steel could likely be the most expensive movie ever released. WB is pretty much emptying their pockets with this one and they have to because this is their blockbuster moment yet again and nothing is in the way perse (Avengers or other Marvel movies for example.) I still think this film will hit big.

Monday June 17th -- obviously I think MoS easily destroys June records as the biggest movie in June ever. Superman is a much more popular and known character IMO than any other superhero out there. EVERYONE knows who he is and we don't need to refer to comics, tv, movies -- you just know who Superman is and that's that. The big question is, will the non fans see this movie? That is sort of the deal breaker here.

Now, I think non fans will be driven to see the movie because it has INCREDIBLE action and a TON of it. Movie goers want to be entertained and I can tell you, Man of Steel is one of the most entertaining movies I've seen in a long time. Call me bias because I'm a Superman fan, but I never got bored with the film. When you watch MoS, you get the feeling you're a part of something big, something extraordinary. When he flies, it's like you're there and it's truly remarkable and makes you want to have that ability to just take off like he does. I have seen Man of Steel and I cannot go into details about the movie whatsoever until the embargo is lifted but I will most likely be out of town for a few weeks and will try to chime in every now and again.

 

[Bruce Malone]

What's high and what's low is a matter of opinion. For you, $150M OW is 'too high, and causes problems for the movie'.. for me and others, anything below $120 is too low...

Anyways, instead of people being disappointed, I think those predicting less than 900M will be pleasantly surprised... because it'll hit 1B (my prediction, or, opinion, because I don't really have the proper tools/variables to actually predict)

But that's my point. If you predict a reasonable or even low-end figure, the worst thing abut you being wrong is that you are in fact pleasantly surprised.

By setting up your predictions for a billion however, you are setting yourself up to be potentially disappointed if it doesn't reach that figure (which is more than likely according to most predictions).

For too many people the bar for what counts as a successful movie has been set too high.

 

[db85usa]

But that's my point. If you predict a reasonable or even low-end figure, the worst thing abut you being wrong is that you are in fact pleasantly surprised.

By setting up your predictions for a billion however, you are setting yourself up to be potentially disappointed if it doesn't reach that figure (which is more than likely according to most predictions).

For too many people the bar for what counts as a successful movie has been set too high.

You're a pessimist and that's cool. Nobody expected Skyfall to achieve what it did and that film was coming off of a terrible sequel similar to Man of Steel/Superman Returns except we're dealing with an entirely different separate film (reboot) the whole Superman isn't popular overseas is a BS argument. Many people are basing their information on the failure of Superman Returns. I will tell you this right now, Man of Steel destroys that movie and when its over and you're in the theater, you'll be talking about MoS and how incredible it was and SR won't even cross your mind.

Realistically most people will say MoS is a lock for $110-$125 million OW, $300 million domestic, $400 million foreign. No, the foreign market is bigger than ever before. This isn't 2006 that's why I think $800-$900 million WW is a lock for MoS, IF it has great legs/repeat viewings, then I think it can get past $1 billion.

 

[JOE]

Where are all these 115M+ OW predictions coming from?

Superman Returns- 55M
Batman Begins- 48M
Amazing Spider-Man 62M
Iron Man- 98M
Captain America- 65M
Thor- 65M
Incredible Hulk- 55M
Spider-Man- 114M
Green Lantern- 53M


Forget IM2, IM3, Avengers, TDK, TDKR, SM2, SM3... I'm strictly talking about the first movies of franchises within the last 11 years.

You guys are trying to say that this movie is going to have the largest opening weekend out of any other CBM origin?

If it exceeds 100M+ it would only be the second CBM origin to do so being right beside Spider-Man.

Do I think it'll break 100M? No. Does that mean I don't want it to? No. I hope it shatters it and has the highest OW of any CBM origin to date.

Reason for this post? Don't be disappointed if it doesn't. Numbers are just numbers though.

 

[robot]

But that's my point. If you predict a reasonable or even low-end figure, the worst thing abut you being wrong is that you are in fact pleasantly surprised.

By setting up your predictions for a billion however, you are setting yourself up to be potentially disappointed if it doesn't reach that figure (which is more than likely according to most predictions).

For too many people the bar for what counts as a successful movie has been set too high.

I think you're missing the point I am trying to make... to you, 1B is 'setting the bar too high'.. to me, it's just about right... to me, predicting below 700M is setting the bar too low...

To force everyone to 'purposely' predict less than they 'feel' is the right number in their hearts (high or low), is just wrong...

Anyone predicting here may be wrong.. there's no too high or too low, unless you're talking silly numbers like a trillion dollars... anything within the realm of possibility is up for grabs... for example, predicting Avatar to break 2Billion was once thought 'crazy'...

 

[JOE]

I think you're missing the point I am trying to make... to you, 1B is 'setting the bar too high'.. to me, it's just about right... to me, predicting below 700M is setting the bar too low...

To force everyone to 'purposely' predict less than they 'feel' is the right number in their hearts (high or low), is just wrong...

Anyone predicting here may be wrong.. there's no too high or too low, unless you're talking silly numbers like a trillion dollars... anything within the realm of possibility is up for grabs... for example, predicting Avatar to break 2Billion was once thought 'crazy'...

So you're saying that if this movie makes 650M WW you'll be disappointed?

 

[db85usa]

Where are all these 115M+ OW predictions coming from?

Superman Returns- 55M
Batman Begins- 48M
Amazing Spider-Man 62M
Iron Man- 98M
Captain America- 65M
Thor- 65M
Incredible Hulk- 55M
Spider-Man- 114M
Green Lantern- 53M


Forget IM2, IM3, Avengers, TDK, TDKR, SM2, SM3... I'm strictly talking about the first movies of franchises within the last 11 years.

You guys are trying to say that this movie is going to have the largest opening weekend out of any other CBM origin?

If it exceeds 100M+ it would only be the second CBM origin to do so being right beside Spider-Man.

Do I think it'll break 100M? No. Does that mean I don't want it to? No. I hope it shatters it and has the highest OW of any CBM origin to date.

Reason for this post? Don't be disappointed if it doesn't. Numbers are just numbers though.

BECAUSE ITS $%*(@ SUPERMAN! That's why t: seriously, MoS is outselling all 2013 summer films and outpacing IM3. The last time a DC superhero movie was performing like this in ticket sales (TDKR) it ended up with a huge domestic OW. I have said it from the start, MoS shouldbe comparative to Iron-Man 1 and no other superhero movie in terms of OW/DOM/WW figures.

 

[JOE]

BECAUSE ITS $%*(@ SUPERMAN! That's why t: seriously, MoS is outselling all 2013 summer films and outpacing IM3. The last time a DC superhero movie was performing like this in ticket sales (TDKR) it ended up with a huge domestic OW. I have said it from the start, MoS shouldbe comparative to Iron-Man 1 and no other superhero movie in terms of OW/DOM/WW figures.

"BECAUSE ITS $%*(@ SUPERMAN!" will not make this movie beat IM3. Snowball's chance in hell.

 

[db85usa]

I have heard WB is expecting only $90 Million for the OW. Obviously that is so they can boast about a $100-$130 Million OW or more t:

My biggest complaint is -- why undersell this movie at the start and then aggresively promote it so close to it's release? WB made a stupid move in that regard and it is considered a huge gamble, too.

 

[Liam_H]

Are you not taking into account the whole dispute Disney had with Regal/AMC leading to no ticket sales for IM3 leading up to the release? MOS outpacing IM3 is kind of misleading.

 

[redp]

Where are all these 115M+ OW predictions coming from?

Superman Returns- 55M
Batman Begins- 48M
Amazing Spider-Man 62M
Iron Man- 98M
Captain America- 65M
Thor- 65M
Incredible Hulk- 55M
Spider-Man- 114M
Green Lantern- 53M


Forget IM2, IM3, Avengers, TDK, TDKR, SM2, SM3... I'm strictly talking about the first movies of franchises within the last 11 years.

You guys are trying to say that this movie is going to have the largest opening weekend out of any other CBM origin?

If it exceeds 100M+ it would only be the second CBM origin to do so being right beside Spider-Man.

Do I think it'll break 100M? No. Does that mean I don't want it to? No. I hope it shatters it and has the highest OW of any CBM origin to date.

Reason for this post? Don't be disappointed if it doesn't. Numbers are just numbers though.

If you adust Spider-Man OW to 2013 ticket prices; it will soar up to $156 million which is on par with what db85usa is predicting.

 

[db85usa]

"BECAUSE ITS $%*(@ SUPERMAN!" will not make this movie beat IM3. Snowball's chance in hell.

Well I'm so glad someone took that comment so seriously even though it wasn't meant to be serious. Too many delicate people in this thread

 

[JOE]

Well I'm so glad someone took that comment so seriously even though it wasn't. Too many delicate people in this thread

I'm not being delicate, you're just over the top. Throwing out outrageous numbers just because you're extremely pumped about a movie that's getting some good feedback and looks great in the trailers/tv spots.

 

[redp]

I have heard WB is expecting only $90 Million for the OW. Obviously that is so they can boast about a $100-$130 Million OW or more t:

My biggest complaint is -- why undersell this movie at the start and then aggresively promote it so close to it's release? WB made a stupid move in that regard and it is considered a huge gamble, too.

Is it possible that the trial with Superman's property delayed marketing? The legal reasons of which are obvious of course.

 

[db85usa]

So you're saying that if this movie makes 650M WW you'll be disappointed?

It will make much more. If Spidey can get $62 M for an OW and reach the figures it did, MoS should be able to if not more. Yes, I know ASM was released around July 4 as well mid-week.

 

[JOE]

If you adust Spider-Man OW to 2013 ticket prices; it will soar up to $156 million which is on par with what db85usa is predicting.

So you're comparing this movie with Spider-Man? Spider-Man was the best CBM at the time and did well with the critics too. 89% on RT, which is hard to come across for CBM nowadays. The Dark Knight and The Avengers are the only CBM's to beat it on RT in 11 years.

Raimi's Spider-Man also did 820M WW. By your math, this movie should clear 1B no problem, right? I'm just following your lead here.

 

[db85usa]

I'm not being delicate, you're just over the top. Throwing out outrageous numbers just because you're extremely pumped about a movie that's getting some good feedback and looks great in the trailers/tv spots.

No, I do this for a living. It's called work. Having contacts, insiders, trackers, surveys, merchandise sales, internet feedback, the list goes on. The realistic figure right now is a window of $100-$130 million because WB expects $90-$95. My prediction is a window of $140-$155 based on my own research and work. A lot of it has to do with marketing, merchandise sales. The popularity for Superman has risen in the last two months to incredible heights.

This will translate into people seeing the movie in droves. The release close to father's day is what will likely entice families to go out together and see the movie. Most Americans take time out of their day to catch a flick when it is around a special day/holiday in this case (Father's Day) but especially the summer since school is out.