Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Hammer!]

Your not considering advertisement, talent pay cuts, distribution, etc. If it made 300, you wouldn't be seeing Supeman on the big screen for awhile.

 

[snowball41293]

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2013/06/13/box-office-preview-man-of-steel/

Entertainment Weekly's Grady Smith:

The Superman reboot isn’t just anticipated from a creative standpoint. With a $225 million budget, an image-overhaul by producer Christopher Nolan, and lingering memories of Superman Returns‘ less-than-stellar box-office run in 2006, Man of Steel‘s financial prospects have become almost as big of a story as the film itself.

Expectations for Man of Steel‘s opening weekend vary wildly. Warner Bros. is trying to keep forecasts around $75-80 million. Meanwhile, prognosticators’ predictions range from $84 million all the way to $115 million. But those all seem low to me. Yes, low.

I’ll admit: franchise reboots are a tougher sell than superhero sequels. Batman Begins earned $48.7 million when it opened in 2005. The Amazing Spider-Man found $62 million when it opened in 2012. And, not to be forgotten, Superman Returns grossed $52.5 million when it opened in 2006. To be fair, each of these films opened on Tuesday/Wednesday, so interest had diminished by the time the weekend rolled around. Still, not exactly Avengers-sized debuts.

But in many ways, Man of Steel doesn’t feel like a Superman reboot at all. It feels more like a sequel to The Dark Knight, which opened with $158.4 million. Its Nolan-induced makeover, which places Clark Kent (played by the untested but undeniably dashing Henry Cavill) into a serious narrative complete with grey-blue settings and surrounded by pedigreed actors like Russell Crowe, Amy Adams, and Kevin Costner, has given the film a certain fanboy “cred” before its release. Zach Snyder, a keen visualist, has imbued Man of Steel with eye-popping visuals, which have proven incredibly effective in marketing efforts.

[...]

The original Iron Man opened with $98.6 million and proved that franchise kickoffs can draw massive audiences. Of course, that film garnered stellar reviews, while Man of Steel‘s have been decidedly middling, but those don’t usually effect box-office prospects on opening weekend. With 3-D and IMAX ticket sales added into the mix, Man of Steel should be able to outdo that number with ease. It’s now a question of how high it can soar past that.

Man of Steel will open in 4,207 theaters, and now that Iron Man 3 and Fast & Furious 6 have already passed their box office heydays, it has room to own the market. I’m feeling very bullish about Man of Steel‘s prospects (those Fandango stats are hard to ignore), so I’m going to say it earns $132 million on opening weekend. Is that too high? Perhaps.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

Unreal how all over the map these OW predictions are.

 

[ares834]

Yeah and it was blasted for not being good enough to make as much money as it did. Now that the shoe is on the other foot everyone is hoping MOS does exactly what they bashed IM3 for doing.

It's down right biased and hypocritical when you think about it.

It's not hypocritical if they were basing the quality of the film on their opinion and not the reviews.

 

[db85usa]

Unreal how all over the map these OW predictions are.

Because nobody really knows what is going to happen. A lot of films have surprised us this year and last. Once tracking does go past $100 million, it is very hard to predict. It could finish slightly below that mark or blow right by it. I'm going with exceeding expectations.

 

[Princess Denise]

Because nobody really knows what is going to happen. A lot of films have surprised us this year and last. Once tracking does go past $100 million, it is very hard to predict. It could finish slightly below that mark or blow right by it. I'm going with exceeding expectations.

I think WOM will drive OW and I would keep my eye Cinema Score. If MOS scores an A from audiences then I am pretty sure we are good for a 100 million dollar weekend, but a B or lower will probably mean it will come in below expectations.

 

[db85usa]

I think WOM will drive OW and I would keep my eye Cinema Score. If MOS scores an A from audiences then I am pretty sure we are good for a 100 million dollar weekend, but a B or lower will probably mean it will come in below expectations.

CinemaScore is worthless. Like I said earlier even awful films get a B-, B, B+ it doesn't take much to get an A- anymore. Come on, I've been saying $130-$150 mil OW, so don't get snippy with me

 

[Princess Denise]

CinemaScore is worthless. Like I said earlier even awful films get a B-, B, B+ it doesn't take much to get an A- anymore. Come on, I've been saying $130-$150 mil, so don't get snippy with me

That is what I mean. A score of B could just indicate "meh" so rating it an A means audiences like it and will tell their friends and family to go see it. The marketing has done a good job of generating excitement, but it depends on WOM to make it strong the entire weekend.

 

[sf2]

i want it to make 200M OW!!!

but i was always wrong.

 

[db85usa]

That is what I mean. A score of B could just indicate "meh" so rating it an A means audiences like it and will tell their friends and family to go see it. The marketing has done a good job of generating excitement, but it depends on WOM to make it strong the entire weekend.

I think the buzz has been there for a while and people are well aware of Superman here in the US but OS is a different story. I'm not worried about a CinemaScore I think it will end up with an A- or A on or around what TDK/TDKR got. A+ you really have to have outstanding reviews to back that score up. It will be interesting to see what unfolds in the next 24+ hours in the BO...

 

[Jim-El]

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2013/06/13/box-office-preview-man-of-steel/

Entertainment Weekly's Grady Smith:

Thanks for the article. Records will be shattered this weekend by MOS.

 

[Jim-El]

i want it to make 200M OW!!!

but i was always wrong.

No worries sf2. It's going OVER 200.

 

[Princess Denise]

I think the buzz has been there for a while and people are well aware of Superman here in the US but OS is a different story. I'm not worried about a CinemaScore I think it will end up with an A- or A on or around what TDK/TDKR got. A+ you really have to have outstanding reviews to back that score up. It will be interesting to see what unfolds in the next 24+ hours in the BO...

Yep, the buzz is there and I think MOS is poised for a 100 million+ weekend, but only time will tell

 

[db85usa]

No worries sf2. It's going OVER 200.

Leave whatever planet you're on and come back to Earth, lol. It is not going anywhere near $200 Mil. It won't even come close to IM3 numbers. The highest I would put MoS, the ceiling in all its entirety would be $160 million. If Batman couldn't do it with great reviews... what makes you think Superman can with bad reviews?

Sure, as a fan, it's easy to get psyched up and say it's going to be on top of the world. The reality is, it won't eclipse an ensemble film that was supported and marketed by five, FIVE previous superhero films.

 

[Jim-El]

Leave whatever planet you're on and come back to Earth, lol. It is not going anywhere near $200 Mil. It won't even come close to IM3 numbers. The highest I would put MoS, the ceiling in all its entirety would be $160 million. If Batman couldn't do it with great reviews... what makes you think Superman can with bad reviews?

Sure, as a fan, it's easy to get psyched up and say it's going to be on top of the world. The reality is, it won't eclipse an ensemble film that was supported and marketed by five, FIVE previous superhero films.

The GA KNOWS this is a present day "ACTION" film about SUPERMAN. This carries all the way to the GA's primal instincts. No super hero comes CLOSE to Superman! Just the idea of a Superman in action will resinate with moviegoers like no movie before it. This is where SR FAILED...Good reviews or bad, get ready to be shocked!

 

[db85usa]

The GA KNOWS this is a present day "ACTION" film about SUPERMAN. This carries all the way to the GA's primal instincts. No super hero comes CLOSE to Superman! Just the idea of a Superman in action will resinate with moviegoers like no movie before it. This is where SR FAILED...Good reviews or bad, get ready to be shocked!

Everyone would be shocked if it actually grossed $200 mil in its OW, including me & you but I'm still leaning towards above $130 mil with a high range of $150+ million. I just don't see it realistically going any higher than that. I had a feeling RS would be higher than everyone else. MTC is way, way too low... HSX is playing it safe and I've yet to see more predictions being thrown out.

I'm actually getting ready to go see MoS again

 

[Mad Love]

tumblr is really positive about MOS. Would be something if MOS ends up critic-proof.

 

[Jim-El]

Everyone would be shocked if it actually grossed $200 mil in its OW, including me & you but I'm still leaning towards above $130 mil with a high range of $150+ million. I just don't see it realistically going any higher than that. I had a feeling RS would be higher than everyone else. MTC is way, way too low... HSX is playing it safe and I've yet to see more predictions being thrown out.

I'm actually getting ready to go see MoS again

Have a good time...Can't wait for tomorrow night myself...

 

[sf2]

Everyone would be shocked if it actually grossed $200 mil in its OW, including me & you but I'm still leaning towards above $130 mil with a high range of $150+ million. I just don't see it realistically going any higher than that. I had a feeling RS would be higher than everyone else. MTC is way, way too low... HSX is playing it safe and I've yet to see more predictions being thrown out.

I'm actually getting ready to go see MoS again

ya, it makes you crave for more!!! the action isn't enough!!! more!!! more!!! lol

btw, this movie could be epic and classic... they just have to insert some typical crowd pleasing saving scenes over the world!

 

[GreenKToo]

My crowd applauded. this seems to be pleasing to the public, so it may well have a huge opening.
still, I think a more realistic estimate of around 115/120 mill is where it will end up ow.

 

[khreysi290]

Figures are in for Taiwan:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-man-steel-breaks-568470

So far, here's Man of Steel's tally after one day:
PHILIPPINES: US$ 1.7 million (biggest opening-day ever)
TAIWAN: US$ 794,742 (biggest opening for a WB film)

 

[sf2]

Figures are in for Taiwan:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-man-steel-breaks-568470

So far, here's Man of Steel's tally after one day:
PHILIPPINES: US$ 1.7 million (biggest opening-day ever)
TAIWAN: US$ 794,742 (biggest opening for a WB film)

small fries. most important is the US.

 

[Mysteryman]

How much does 1.7 million translate to here ?
It is the equivalent of how much over here in the states ?

 

[kvz5]

How much does 1.7 million translate to here ?
It is the equivalent of how much over here in the states ?

It's already in USD.

 

[khreysi290]

How much does 1.7 million translate to here ?
It is the equivalent of how much over here in the states ?

That figure for the Philippines is already converted to US$. In their local currency, the figure is 69.5 million Philippine Pesos.