May Box Office Predictions

[WorthyStevens]

MI3 was damn good.We're all going on about X3 and hoping it or some knowing it'll be better then SR, but has anyone seen MI3?? I'm hoping to god that X3 tops that out. MI3 was really good. I can't believe WB let Abrams script go. Yeah the script had some shyt like Krypton still being around and Luthor is an Alien, but take that out and that script rocked. I did say back when that script was leaked that it was good, but needed fixing.

I'm hoping to see that sometime next week.

 

[RagingTempest]

It's doubt that X3 will do well quanity wise!! There is a lot of hyped over this movie, and not to mention Memorial weekend is a big weekend for movies!!!

 

[Excel]

x3

83 3 day
101 4 day
225 total.
440 ww.

 

[Celestial]

MI3's Friday estimate was only $17m, so it looks like a disappointing opening weekend. So is this specific to MI3 or part of a box office trend?

Here's hoping it's just Tom-fatigue and disappointment from MI2 carrying over.

If it's a trend, I'll lower my X3 prediction for the 3-day weekend to $60m.

 

[martinbluther]

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=9542

1) X-Men: The Last Stand

One of the most popular and lucrative movie franchises in recent years (after perhaps just Star Wars, Spider-Man, and Harry Potter) returns for a third outing. Wolverine (Hugh Jackman), Rogue (Anna Paquin), Professor X (Patrick Stewart) and most of the gang (plus a couple new faces including Kelsey Grammer as Beast) are back to face off against Magneto (Ian McKellan). The X-Men have a very large following of comic book fans, plus a sizeable number of people who were simply turned on by the first two films from Bryan Singer. Singer is gone though, moving on to Superman Returns, and replaced by Brett Ratner (Rush Hour 2, Red Dragon).

How will Singer's departure affect ticket sales? My hunch is not very much, though it could hurt a little bit if people perceive that the quality of the movie will slip. This is the third movie in the series, a point at which many action franchises begin to lose their luster. Think: Superman 3, Batman Forever, Die Hard With a Vengeance, etc. Don't get me wrong: this will make a ton of money. But I wouldn't be surprised if it struggles to pass $200 million total.

One thing is for certain, though: with so many key films opening in May this year, the Memorial Day weekend is bound to be one of the biggest weekends in box office history. The megaxplexes will be very crowded for sure. But if you head there in hopes of catching a more adult, arty picture, you're probably going to be out of luck this time of year.

Opening weekend prediction: $80 million + $19 million Monday.

2) The Da Vinci Code

One of the biggest selling books in recent memory makes its way to the big screen this month in The Da Vinci Code starring Tom Hanks and Audrey Tautou. Author Dan Brown's book has been trashed by many literary critics, but embraced by mass audiences to the tune of 40 million books sold worldwide (and more than 12 million in the U.S.). It is no stranger to controversy either, as plenty of Catholics have condemned the fictionally religious elements. Directed by Oscar-winner Ron Howard, who is no doubt hoping that the controversy will only serve to increase awareness and interest in the blockbuster. Could be a fun battle with X-Men to see which one ends up on top for the May releases, and both will also be high on the leaderboard out of all 2006 releases.

Opening weekend: $66 million.

3) Mission: Impossible III

was a success last year, though perhaps not as much as one might have expected. This time he'll have some help from first-time film director J.J. Abrams, of TV series Alias and Lost. Abrams, of course, is no stranger to the spy world given his experiences on cult-fave Alias. Cruise is again joined by Crazy Tom Cruise is back as superspy Ethan Hunt in the third installment of the Mission: Impossible franchise. It has been a very up and down year for one of the world's most bankable movie stars. After his escapades last Summer with Oprah and Matt Lauer, and his further adventures into nuttiness throughout the year, he and Katie Holmes finally had their baby recently. His blockbuster duo with Steven Spielberg on War of the WorldsVing Rhames, as well as recent Oscar winner Philip Seymour Hoffman.

It seems like every Summer is the "Summer of Sequels and Remakes" anymore, doesn't it? In any case, the Summer movie season unofficially opens the first weekend in May with MI:III. No doubt that many studio executives (not just at Paramount) will be keeping a close eye on theater attendance, considering the gloomy results from much of 2005.

The first Mission Impossible opened to about $45 million ten years ago, before coasting to almost $200 in the States alone. The sequel improved on those figures six years ago with a $58 million opening bow, before settling in at $215 million total. I expect a slight increase from that, though not by too much. Yes, higher average ticket prices need to be factored in. But also consider that the second MI was a letdown for many fans, and oftentimes interest in a series begins to wane after the third film (as mentioned with X-Men). Plus, Cruise perhaps isn't as big as he once was. Still, it'll make quite a bit of money.

Opening weekend: $59 million.

4) Poseidon

Poseidon is a remake of the 1972 disaster film The Poseidon Adventure. The latter arrived during the wave of disaster flicks and was very popular (earning about $85 million domestically) and even scored a number of award nominations. This one has a very strong trailer and is likely to please a whole new generation of filmgoers, plus older folks who enjoyed the first one. It helps that director Wolfgang Petersen has plenty of experience with this type of film, as he previously directed The Perfect Storm, plus Outbreak and Air Force One. (We'll just forget about his last film, Troy, which was a dud.) This could be one of the biggest hits of the Summer.

Opening weekend: $52 million.

5) Over the Hedge

From the creators of Shrek! For better or worse, all you need to do to market a movie successfully is to make that phrase the focus of your campaign and it's probably worth a minimum of $20 million on top of what you would have had. But with the recent failure of The Wild, it's clear that CGI animated movies are not sure bets to make a mint. Though with incredible successes like Ice Age: The Meltdown still luring plenty of families to the theater, there is certainly still demand for them. And the voice cast including Bruce Willis, Garry Shandling, and Steve Carell can only help.

Opening weekend: $46 million.

6) Just My Luck

The charming American princess and high-class debutante, Lindsay Lohan, stars as one of the luckiest women in the world in Just My Luck. Her luck takes a turn for the worse though, when she meets an unlucky man and their fortunes soon switch. Directed by Donald Petrie, who managed to score moderate hits with How to Lose in Guy in Ten Days iand Miss Congeniality.

Opening weekend: $11 million.

7) See No Evil

WWE wrestling superstar Kane (a.k.a. Glen Jacobs) makes his movie debut in See No Evil. From director Gregory Dark - who previously led such films as Sex Freaks and New Wave Hookers 2, 3, and 4 - See No Evil is about a big, vicious criminal hiding out at a seedy hotel. A group of juvenile delinquents go to the hotel to clean it, along with the cop who once shot the criminal. Mayhem and violence soon break out in this horror film.

If this were to be released during any time of year other than the Summer movie season, I'd have no trouble believing that it could make the customary $20 million for the horror genre. Especially with a popular wrestler like Kane in the cast. But it's up going up against some pretty big films, so will likely get lost in the crowd. I expect a very short window between the theatrical and DVD releases.

Opening weekend: $10 million.

8) Hoot

Hoot is an adaptation of author Carl Hiaasen's book about a young kid in Florida who puts up a fight when he learns that a construction site is endangering a wild owl population. Hiaasen's books, including Tourist Season and Striptease (which got turned into the Demi Moore abomination) are always a lot of fun, but this is the first that focuses on a kid as the main character. It doesn't have a lot of hope going up against Mission Impossible, but should be good for a little business with families looking for some PG-fun.

Opening weekend: $7 million.

9) An American Haunting

The premise of An American Haunting is pretty intriguing: it tells the tale of the only documented case in American history of a spirit causing a man's death. Will it be intriguing enough, though? Veteran actors Donald Sutherland and Sissy Spacek star in the creepy ghost story. They are two fine actors, for sure, but neither are exactly draws for the teenage and young adult crowd that is so crucial. And among more adult thrillers, this isn't Nicole Kidman (in The Others), or Naomi Watts (in The Ring). And it isn't riding a great marketing campaign, with help from a 30-year-old classic (The Exorcism of Emily Rose). If the reviews are positive, it could have enough juice to stay in theaters for a bit, but it's more likely to get tripped up and kicked out. For better or worse, assuming anyone is even aware of the movie, most people will see this as having "wait for DVD" written all over it.

Opening weekend: $6 million.

As faras $ numbers go, I can't hang wit you... but here's how I see it stacking up when all's said and done...

I see the numbers in terms of rankings, though:

1) Davinci Code. Not. Even. CLose. The big rankings as far as movies go is seeing the thing 2+ times. People will see this movie twice, and everyone who bought the book, (maybe easier to tally those who didn't) will see the movie...

2) MI3. Very successfull series. Cruise. Nuff said.

3) (or 1) X3 all depends on the fanboy reaction. I'm quite serious. Fanboys are the ones who saw X1 multiple times and jacked up the numbers. If the fans like it, it booms into the 1 spot. If not, it falls to 3-4 just because of people who will see any Xfilm.

4) Poseiden. This could be the sleeper. If kids like the CGI, then it could rake it in like Titanic. People who are old enough to remember Titanic may not flock to it.

5)Over the Hedge. Great Creators and Stars...

The rest, I'm not sure. Hope X3 is big due to massive fan reaction, fanboys and girls flocking to see it again and again...

 

[Supreme Power]

As faras $ numbers go, I can't hang wit you... but here's how I see it stacking up when all's said and done...

I see the numbers in terms of rankings, though:

1) Davinci Code. Not. Even. CLose. The big rankings as far as movies go is seeing the thing 2+ times. People will see this movie twice, and everyone who bought the book, (maybe easier to tally those who didn't) will see the movie...

Umm, not me.

 

[Fanticon]

you know...i really think that everyone putting x3 at a final take of 215-220million will be shocked to see it actually do much better than that...and quite possibly reach 300million...so all those analysts and so called prediction x-perts can keep saying its what their gut tells em...this what my gut feeling is and I'm ready to bet money on it...with people I know I mean

 

[Weadazoid]

you know...i really think that everyone putting x3 at a final take of 215-220million will be shocked to see it actually do much better than that...and quite possibly reach 300million...so all those analysts and so called prediction x-perts can keep saying its what their gut tells em...this what my gut feeling is and I'm ready to bet money on it...with people I know I mean

thats what I have been saying all along....


Look at it in this sense, MI3 has already undershot it for a Huge opeing weekend for the summer..good but not great numbers.

Posiedon is next week...and as far as I here no one amongst my firends is going to rush out and see this one


Then the box office will have a big weekend but it will be split...Kids going to see Over the Hedge and adults going to see Da Vinchi..maybe a few inteligent late teens as well...but this boook to movie deal...it isn't Harry potter or Narnia.. The Code is not big with kids and teen agers


Then Memorial day.... Families teenagers adults and kids all come togeather to see the NEW...memorial day movie


and that movie will be X 3 the last stand ...many wondering just how the phoenix saga will play out.... people who were not even huge fns of the comics probubly now know what the fire bird at then End of X2 was all about and it has them intrigued

 

[narrows101]

thats what I have been saying all along....


Look at it in this sense, MI3 has already undershot it for a Huge opeing weekend for the summer..good but not great numbers.

Posiedon is next week...and as far as I here no one amongst my firends is going to rush out and see this one


Then the box office will have a big weekend but it will be split...Kids going to see Over the Hedge and adults going to see Da Vinchi..maybe a few inteligent late teens as well...but this boook to movie deal...it isn't Harry potter or Narnia.. The Code is not big with kids and teen agers


Then Memorial day.... Families teenagers adults and kids all come togeather to see the NEW...memorial day movie


and that movie will be X 3 the last stand ...many wondering just how the phoenix saga will play out.... people who were not even huge fns of the comics probubly now know what the fire bird at then End of X2 was all about and it has them intrigued

They are estimating MI3 will do $46-$50M this weekend (it did $17M on Friday) - way below what was expected. But they are saying Cruise movies usually "hold up well" - we'll see about that.

I agree re DaVinci Code but I seem to be in the minority - I just had on one of the Sunday talk shows and the movie guy said he predicts DaVinci will be the biggest movie of the year. He said the movie is tracking at a 96% awareness rating. I can see people going to see this movie, but not more than once and mostly adults. I don't get why so many people think this will be the biggest movie of the summer. I don't think everyone who read the book will see the movie, and I do know a lot of people who won't see it because of the controversy - but maybe some will just BECAUSE of the controversy.

X3 however will have adults, kids, teens, and lot of people going more than one time I think. Plus X3 has no other movie opening up against it that weekend - just stuff that's already in the theaters. So it will be interesting to see all the results of this stuff.

 

[TNC9852002]

X3 might do very well as estimated..

I mean, MI3 got 17m for Friday and X2 did double those numbers back in 2003 on it's opening day (estimated $33.9 million)...The thing is, that even though the X-Men films started off very strong during it's first two weeks, they started dropping fast.

My guess for the top total grosses for the summer?

Top 5 (Domestic):
#1 POTC2 (340m)
#2 Superman Returns (315m)
#3 Cars (250m)
#4 X3 (230m)
#5 The Da Vinci Code (210m)

-TNC

 

[Weadazoid]

They are estimating MI3 will do $46-$50M this weekend (it did $17M on Friday) - way below what was expected. But they are saying Cruise movies usually "hold up well" - we'll see about that.

I agree re DaVinci Code but I seem to be in the minority - I just had on one of the Sunday talk shows and the movie guy said he predicts DaVinci will be the biggest movie of the year. He said the movie is tracking at a 96% awareness rating. I can see people going to see this movie, but not more than once and mostly adults. I don't get why so many people think this will be the biggest movie of the summer. I don't think everyone who read the book will see the movie, and I do know a lot of people who won't see it because of the controversy - but maybe some will just BECAUSE of the controversy.

X3 however will have adults, kids, teens, and lot of people going more than one time I think. Plus X3 has no other movie opening up against it that weekend - just stuff that's already in the theaters. So it will be interesting to see all the results of this stuff.

I think in the end the Code will be a strong box office movie I just think it takes it's time plods along ona route with good legs....

Maybe it winds up like Titantic and stays at 20 to 15 Million for a long while.


And yeah I have heard that 96% awareness thing as well..thing is to be aware and to actualy go and see something...two different ball parks...


Some are going to wait for Reviews...some adults who just don't like going to see the movie in the theater anymore have already made up thier mind to waint until video.


It just doens't look like a movie tghat MUST be SEEN on the big SCREEN.... in other words much it is more story then action and that can almost always waitn until vieo or PPV


remember Braddock? Cinderella Man...anyone

 

[narrows101]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/polls/?page=viewpoll&id=333&p=.htm

What is your most anticipated movie of the summer?

23.5% Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
23.0% X-Men: The Last Stand
17.2% The Da Vinci Code
14.7% Superman Returns
5.1% Mission: Impossible III
3.8% Cars
3.8% Snakes on a Plane
3.4% Other
2.7% Miami Vice
2.2% Poseidon
0.6% The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift
3,018 users polled. (This poll is now closed.)

 

[Weadazoid]

This poll has always made sese to me far remvoed from our own tirates ect ect...uninfluenced


pirates got to 1rst but just barely. \


Posideon is going to be a SERIOUS disapointment

 

[narrows101]

Here's another one from the same site.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/polls/?page=viewpoll&id=332&p=.htm

What will be the top-grossing movie of the summer?

42.1% Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
18.6% The Da Vinci Code
16.8% Superman Returns
11.1% X-Men: The Last Stand
5.3% Cars
4.1% Mission: Impossible III
0.8% Poseidon
0.6% Other
0.4% Over the Hedge
0.1% Click
2,961 users polled. (This poll is now closed.)

 

[Fanticon]

The only reason I think Davinci Code could end up being bigger than expected is because it will have "legs"...it will play all summer as it is an interesting alternative thrown into a mix of summer movies...it almost seems like this is the religious version of National Treasure, and seems like it'd be more fit to be shown in like November or December. Some movies that were considered successes over the last few summers weren't because of how much money they made or how big the opening weekends were, but rather, because of how long they played throughout the entire summer...2002 Bourne Identity...it opened in June with 27million...and played in theatres as far as September finishing with 120million. 2003, Italian Job...opened in June as well, with 20million or so...and also played all the way to September finishing with 105million...2004, Napolean Dynamite...a movie made for only 400,000$ also opened in June and played all the way to its release on DVD with 45million by December...Last year...Crash opened with 9million in May, and by September had reached 55million...Now, these aren't stellar numbers...but they were constantly appearing in the top 10 all summer long and proved to be just as profitable if not even more profitable than other major big budget movies released those respective summers...friggin crash ended up winning the best picture, while early on last summer most people and critics were pegging Cinderella Man as the one that would go all the way...that made almost as much as Crash...but was gone after a month, and left many scratching thier heads as to why it failed...so X3, SuperMan, POTC2, Cars...may all make most of their domestic take within a month...but Davinci Code may be that one movie that just won't go away...and eventually finish as the top 5 highest grossers of the summer...just my thoughts on the issue...personally I don't want to see it but I probably will after my 6th viewing of X3

 

[Weadazoid]

The only reason I think Davinci Code could end up being bigger than expected is because it will have "legs"...it will play all summer as it is an interesting alternative thrown into a mix of summer movies...it almost seems like this is the religious version of National Treasure, and seems like it'd be more fit to be shown in like November or December. Some movies that were considered successes over the last few summers weren't because of how much money they made or how big the opening weekends were, but rather, because of how long they played throughout the entire summer...2002 Bourne Identity...it opened in June with 27million...and played in theatres as far as September finishing with 120million. 2003, Italian Job...opened in June as well, with 20million or so...and also played all the way to September finishing with 105million...2004, Napolean Dynamite...a movie made for only 400,000$ also opened in June and played all the way to its release on DVD with 45million by December...Last year...Crash opened with 9million in May, and by September had reached 55million...Now, these aren't stellar numbers...but they were constantly appearing in the top 10 all summer long and proved to be just as profitable if not even more profitable than other major big budget movies released those respective summers...friggin crash ended up winning the best picture, while early on last summer most people and critics were pegging Cinderella Man as the one that would go all the way...that made almost as much as Crash...but was gone after a month, and left many scratching thier heads as to why it failed...so X3, SuperMan, POTC2, Cars...may all make most of their domestic take within a month...but Davinci Code may be that one movie that just won't go away...and eventually finish as the top 5 highest grossers of the summer...just my thoughts on the issue...personally I don't want to see it but I probably will after my 6th viewing of X3

that is kinda the wy I see it... I don't see it being big genough to rob X3 of the number 1 spot in the box office but I think after a decent start...again not monumental cause of the Hedge factor it will slowly decline in numbers and then perhaps plateua at about 15 Million a weekend this kept Titanic afloat...and eventualy bumped it up big time!

 

[MJB]

I feel that x3 will do well. I'm going for about 100-130 over the 4 day weekend if the reviews are positive. I don't get why people were expecting mI3 to rake in 70-90 over the weekend. Even during the vote on Comingsoon I said about 50 million. The Mission Impossiable films are more for adults. Kids aren't interested in this. Heck even teens are about half sold. Whatever MI3 final box office is, Paramount will not lose any money. People also can't blame Cruise for the so called lower box office take. Whatever views or actions that came from the man doesn't carry enough merit where millions upon millions are going to blow off his movies or boycott him. While some are sensitive about his comments regarding the phycological community or the Brooke Shields fued, who here actually cares that is reading this? The rabid Broke Shield fans not going to see this movie is the reason for the lower take? Please don't make me laugh.

These are non issues. If people want to find reasons that carry some weight, lets look at the piracy problem, high gas prices, the rising costs at theaters, the taking of jobs by illeagals, outsourcing of jobs. I guess big business fail to count the little man who is considered low income contribution to the economy. Low income people do go to movies, but with their income sinking lower this may be a crediable reason as to why MI3 took in less then expected and the movie industry as a whole is declining.

 

[Downhere]

Even if M:I 3 underperforms in the states, it will make a killing internationally and spark another M:I film.

 

[narrows101]

MI3 results - $48M. I think it did better than Kingdom of Heaven last year but Van Helsing the year before did $51M. $48 is not a good number for premiering on over 4,000 screens. It will be interesting to see how it fares against Poseidon next weekend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III

Friday: $16,600,000

Saturday: $18,400,000

Sunday: $13,025,000

 

[Downhere]

MI3 results - $48M. I think it did better than Kingdom of Heaven last year but Van Helsing the year before did $51M. $48 is not a good number for premiering on over 4,000 screens. It will be interesting to see how it fares against Poseidon next weekend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III

Friday: $16,600,000

Saturday: $18,400,000

Sunday: $13,025,000

I have to agree, that is a low number which is too bad because the movie is the best of the series. It could have good legs and get a 3 multiplier, but that is yet to be seen. Either way I have a feeling it will do well internationally and offset the domestic performance. It's got good reviews and good word-of-mouth so that should help it's legs in the long run as well.

 

[lordofthenerds]

MI3 results - $48M. I think it did better than Kingdom of Heaven last year but Van Helsing the year before did $51M. $48 is not a good number for premiering on over 4,000 screens. It will be interesting to see how it fares against Poseidon next weekend.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III

Friday: $16,600,000

Saturday: $18,400,000

Sunday: $13,025,000

Thats a lot lower than I expected.

 

[MoiBijou]

I have to agree, that is a low number which is too bad because the movie is the best of the series. It could have good legs and get a 3 multiplier, but that is yet to be seen. Either way I have a feeling it will do well internationally and offset the domestic performance. It's got good reviews and good word-of-mouth so that should help it's legs in the long run as well.

It's just the bad record people have from MI:2 and the "hate" for Tom Cruise. When the mouth-to-mouth starts, this movie will gain more money.

 

[Downhere]

It's just the bad record people have from MI:2 and the "hate" for Tom Cruise. When the mouth-to-mouth starts, this movie will gain more money.

True, but the "bad record" people had with M:I 2 should be done and over with. That was like 6 years ago and it wasn't all that bad. It did make over 200 million domestically and was a pretty good mindless action flick.

 

[MoiBijou]

True, but the "bad record" people had with M:I 2 should be done and over with. That was like 6 years ago and it wasn't all that bad. It did make over 200 million domestically and was a pretty good mindless action flick.

Then Tom is even more hated than we thought...

 

[narrows101]

I have to agree, that is a low number which is too bad because the movie is the best of the series. It could have good legs and get a 3 multiplier, but that is yet to be seen. Either way I have a feeling it will do well internationally and offset the domestic performance. It's got good reviews and good word-of-mouth so that should help it's legs in the long run as well.

Here's a comparison to Van Helsing (since I'm a Hugh fan I followed all the news on that one).

MI3 opened to $48M. Van Helsing $51M.

MI3 budget without marketing: $150M
VH budget was $160M with $50M for marketing

Van Helsing's final domestic gross was $120M. It's worldwide gross was $300M. It was considered a disappointment because the domestic number was under its production budget, even though the final total was $300M.

So it will be interesting to see how it all plays out with MI3.